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(Sharp intake of breath).....I wouldn't want to be in your shoes, if it does.http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

That's okay, nog. I'll only wear socks (on my feet!)?? http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

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Aren't they those weird magician pair that were on Channel 4 a few years back - what do they know about the sun?

Posted Image

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well all i can say right now is wow this is getting rather exciting but also a little worried.

what if we are desending into a deep minimum similar to maunder,

i know i been wishing for cooling but who knows we could end up with more than we bargained for.

but still perhapes something a little different maybe starting now the sun has in dramatic fashion just gone to sleep but then like anything peaks normally decline.

i must say in my life time its strange to see the sun in this way.http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

Hhm i wish i'd seen the sun before it went weird so i had something real to compare it to! oh and i wanted to see some geomagnetic storms first http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif:lol:

the maximum possible scenario would create global cooling of 1.5C by 2020 according to some sites- but i'm pretty sure that doesn't factor in global warming.

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By 2015 [they actually say 5 years so 2014!!].

BFTP

So my take on it is, We need a new batch of Sunspots to appear so as we can move onto cycle24. But then the sun should go quiet again with very little in the way of activity and completely devoid by 2014?.

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badboy has raised an important, and potentially disastrous, aspect of this quiet sun.

What if it doesn't pick up? What if it skips over Dalton and heads to a Maunder minimum?

Just like badboy and many others on this forum I would welcome a return to cold and snowy winters. Indeed Little Ice Age style winters would be my idea of heaven. But, winter would not be the only season affected. How would we react to winters that last from November to April, wet and cool springs, short and cool summers, and cold and stormy autumns?

In a world that doesn't have enough resources to support the population as it stands at the moment, how will things pan out if cold growing seasons mean there is even less to go around? How will such shortages affect world economy? Would countries end up at war over crops?

A couple of years back, before the sun started this quiet period, I would have welcomed a Maunder minimum, hoping for 1963/63 every other year. However, that was before it got real and I think I was wishing for something that I didn't think would really happen - like the Gulf Stream shutting down. Now, as the sun lurches towards serious inactivity, it all seems a bit worrying.

Don't get me wrong, cold winters year after year would be manna from heaven for most on here, but will the cost be too great?

Edited by Anti-Mild

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badboy has raised an important, and potentially disastrous, aspect of this quiet sun.

What if it doesn't pick up? What if it skips over Dalton and heads to a Maunder minimum?

Just like badboy and many others on this forum I would welcome a return to cold and snowy winters. Indeed Little Ice Age style winters would be my idea of heaven. But, winter would not be the only season affected. How would we react to winters that last from November to April, wet and cool springs, short and cool summers, and cold and stormy autumns?

In a world that doesn't have enough resources to support the population as it stands at the moment, how will things pan out if cold growing seasons mean there is even less to go around? How will such shortages affect world economy? Would countries end up at war over crops?

A couple of years back, before the sun started this quiet period, I would have welcomed a Maunder minimum, hoping for 1963/63 every other year. However, that was before it got real and I think I was wishing for something that I didn't think would really happen - like the Gulf Stream shutting down. Now, as the sun lurches towards serious inactivity, it all seems a bit worrying.

Don't get me wrong, cold winters year after year would be manna from heaven for most on here, but will the cost be too great?

I agree it's begining to worry me, I think most of us on here long for snowy winters, but the thought of a Dalton minimum, is not something we would adapt to easily. With a far shorter growing season for the Northern Heimsphere, this years credit crunch, would seem like a tea party in comparison. Maybe GW could cheer us up, with one of his tales about how all that warmth would lead us into oblivion! Only joking GW!! Posted Image

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Don't get me wrong, cold winters year after year would be manna from heaven for most on here, but will the cost be too great?

Quite. Would mankind manage to survive? All of us? Some of us? None of us? I have long thought that mankind's time on this Earth is finite. Are we that "special" that we are to be here forever? Great big old dinosaurs were wiped out, weren't they? Plenty of species along the way, since, too. No, something will end our time. Will it be this? No, I don't think so.

To survive would take massive social and economic changes, plus the current balance of world power would be turned on it's head, but I imagine that we'd make it.

It was David Archibald (see link a few pages back), who suggested/calculated/considered/proposed that what would happen is that Earth's climate would effectively "move" approximately 186 miles/300 km towards the equator, to the extent that we would have the climate of what is presently 186miles/300 km to our North. Do I make any sense? He explained it so much better than I. If anyone is interested, please check the link, as I would hate it if I had mis-represented him here. In fact, in a moment, I will re-post the appropriate bit.

PS Here is the article, see the first paragraph, the Abstract.

http://www.davidarchibald.info/papers/Archibald2009E&E.pdf

Edited by noggin

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This minima is 'currently' supporting their theory so is the decrease in solar flux.

BFTP

But we should still see an increase in Flux. It was my understanding that L&P suggest that the sunspots will still exist but that they will not be visible. The Flux should behave in a "normal" way.

That's why I talked about a further reduction in Flux indicating a minimum later than December 08 rather than simply a low in the SSN.

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Crikey, that 300km southward shift is bad news for you noggin, Bristol will end up with the climate of Manchester!!

I, on the other hand, should get used to a climate more like Edinburgh!

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Quite. Would mankind manage to survive? All of us? Some of us? None of us? http://www.davidarchibald.info/papers/Archibald2009E&E.pdf

It’s not climate change that causes problems with species extinction, it’s climate chaos. It’s not the fact of changing conditions that proves to be beyond the ability to adapt, it’s the speed of changing conditions that doesn’t allow time to adapt. The zonal realignment and narrowing or widening of tropical, sub-tropical, temperate and arctic latitudes has historically been slow moving and survival within an adjusting environment was predicated on flora and fauna having time to move with and within their comfort zone. Or adapt to suit where that wasn’t possible.

What has changed, and this is irrespective of whether people have caused climate chaos, is the number of people on the planet and the area of the planet’s surface that we rely on to grow food. At the moment the lush areas provide enough to supplement the habitation of arid areas, even although this is becoming less and less sustainable. The problem in the future would be if the grain-growing belts narrowed or precipitously relocated to the extent that not enough bread ended up in the basket. I’m afraid that would lead to charity beginning at home and end up with the survival of the fittest. Not the end of the human species, probably, but quite possibly a downward adjustment in our numbers.

I, on the other hand, should get used to a climate more like Edinburgh!

You're lucky. I've got the North Atlantic to look forward to. Fisherman's Friend anyone?

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I'm so glad you added that last bit............. :D

Seriously though, noggin. I'm not looking forward to living in Iceland! :D

PS: with or without socks! http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

Fisherman's Friend anyone?

Only Julian Clarey has the answer! :Dhttp://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/rofl.gif :D:rofl:

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Guest The-Whole-Of-The-Moon

hi , i joined the forums because of this dicussion , I have one question , will this minimum have any noticeble effects on this winter in this part of the world or will el nino cancel it out?

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hi , i joined the forums because of this dicussion , I have one question , will this minimum have any noticeble effects on this winter in this part of the world or will el nino cancel it out?

Welcome to N-W, mate...Could you put your location into your profile, please????

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Guest The-Whole-Of-The-Moon

Welcome to N-W, mate...Could you put your location into your profile, please????

ok im doin that now

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the thing is with a deep solar minimum would recent warming be enough to curb any ice age?

maybe a little as been suggested by some,

it all depends on how long it stays in a minimum for,

if a maunder is possible then it could be a very longtime of cooling.

but its true we would adapt but war would could well break out poverty would be terrible it would be the biggest test in a very longtime.

id asume we would all have to migrate to nearer the tropical regions,

but what does make me laugh is that where is the plans if this kind of event happened,

lets be honest imagine millions of people all moving south:shok:.

plenty of money being pumped into warming but what about cooling.

of coarse id like to see dickings winters and this seem more and more likely right now,

and i dont think its worth the panic yet as ice ages take years infact maybe hundreds of years.

but to be honest there is nothing we can do the sun will do what it wants as we can all see its very dramatic right now.

and also a big pat on the back for those that where predicting this some years back:hi: .

so it goes to show the biggest like nasa with the most money even they cant predict the unpredictable :cold:.

question is how much longer will this go on for?

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ok im doin that now

Many thanks, Mate... :cold:

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Ice ages and moving to tropical climates Posted ImagePosted Image

Interesting thread this, i have been following it for the past few weeks Posted Image Keep the updates and discusion going guys Posted Image

Edited by mark bayley

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hi , i joined the forums because of this dicussion , I have one question , will this minimum have any noticeble effects on this winter in this part of the world or will el nino cancel it out?

i think its hard to say i think more time is needed there is ment to be a strong link with el ninos and milder and wetter winters although there are some ?marks over this.

i think this winter maybe like last it maybe a little colder if el nino does not grow in strength some are suggest a decline by december some are suggesting a growing el nino event around this time.

but what ever happens cold spells are a cert in any event at some point through winter.

but this year i think what with a pretty impressive minimum and other factors this year will be one to watch i for one am excited about the outcome for many different reason it will be busy times for forecasters and scientist alike.

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Ice ages and moving to tropical climates Posted ImagePosted Image

Interesting thread this, i have been following it for the past few weeks Posted Image Keep the updates and discusion going guys Posted Image

Got me hooked tooPosted Image

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hi , i joined the forums because of this dicussion , I have one question , will this minimum have any noticeble effects on this winter in this part of the world or will el nino cancel it out?

Hi and welcome to the forum.

I think the full effects of the current solar minimum will not be felt for another few years.

I believe there is a 4-5yr lag.

Thats not to say this Winter is not going to be cold, because there is other factors that effect or Weather.

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Hi and welcome to the forum.

I think the full effects of the current solar minimum will not be felt for another few years.

I believe there is a 4-5yr lag.

Thats not to say this Winter is not going to be cold, because there is other factors that effect or Weather.

yeah indeed 4 or 5 year lag so how many years have this minimum been going on,

i think easy nearly 3 years.

but deep minimum thats been a couple of years i think.

id of thought the deeper the minimum the quicker the effects maybe,

just a thought lol maybe hope casting as winters getting closer lol:cold::cold:

Edited by badboy657

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Guest The-Whole-Of-The-Moon

Thanks for the info guys. Just one more question , this is probaly off topic but is there any signs of factors that will point towards a cold winter this year? i also heard that there is a large area of cold waters in the north atlantic , IF this true could this have any effects on the upcoming winter , i.e. less influence from the atlantic?

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Thanks for the info guys. Just one more question , this is probaly off topic but is there any signs of factors that will point towards a cold winter this year? i also heard that there is a large area of cold waters in the north atlantic , IF this true could this have any effects on the upcoming winter , i.e. less influence from the atlantic?

i may get into trouble for this but there seem to be some pretty good indications although not set in stone we have neg pdo already some cooling showing its hand in the arctic and yes nice cold pool in the alantic although im not very good at doing my home work but theres other factors to take into account.

sorry peeps off topic.

better to talk here : http://www.netweathe...autumn-2009-10/

Edited by badboy657

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Guest The-Whole-Of-The-Moon

thanks badboy, fingers crossed , but i suppose longing for a cold winter won't make much difference. but a perlonged freeze up of the mountains round here like last year will suit me fine :cold:

were on 39 spotless days now , i think 40 is in the top ten , but will that be tommorrow or midnight tonight

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