Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Uncle_Barty]

daily sfi just dropped below 100 over last few days - 27 day average peaked at nearly 122sfu before drifting down slightly to about 119sfu. the 3 month mean has also peaked at a cycle high of 113sfu, before steadying.

 

The active region that produced the recent peak above 150sfu is due to return over the eastern limb any day now, signs are that it is still pretty active having produced a CME (not Earth-directed).

[Katrine Basso]

SUNLIGHT vs MOONLIGHT vs NORTHERN LIGHTS: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on April 14th. At the moment of impact, the sun was shining over Iceland. However, the resulting geomagnetic storm lasted *just* long enough for auroras after nightfall. Todd Salat sends this picture from Godafoss Falls:

[Polar Maritime]

A big X 1 flare a few hours ago, I believe from the East limb

[Uncle_Barty]

On 17/04/2022 at 07:27, Polar Maritime said:

A big X 1 flare a few hours ago, I believe from the East limb

It was on the west limb. X2.2. That region just getting going as it rotates away. There was an M9 flare yesterday from the regions on the north-east side.

Last 2 days solar flux 160.1 (Tues) and 165.5 (yesterday) new highs for Cycle 25. The feed of information on the Penticton website is still somewhat sporadic.

[Polar Maritime]

1 hour ago, Uncle_Barty said:

It was on the west limb. X2.2. That region just getting going as it rotates away. There was an M9 flare yesterday from the regions on the north-east side.

Last 2 days solar flux 160.1 (Tues) and 165.5 (yesterday) new highs for Cycle 25. The feed of information on the Penticton website is still somewhat sporadic.

Yes thanks I was a little unsure after reading the info an hour before posting

Edit- are you sure the 17th had a X2.2?

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Polar Maritime

[Uncle_Barty]

37 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yes thanks I was a little unsure after reading the info an hour before posting

Edit- are you sure the 17th had a X2.2?

 

No, the X2.2 was early hours of the 20th. Mis-read the date on the original post, sorry.

The X1 was also from the departing region close to the west limb at the time.

[Weather-history]

Some good sunspots on view

 

[Katrine Basso]

AFTERGLOW OF A GEOMAGNETIC STORM: An interplanetary shock wave hit Earth's magnetic field on April 27th. It wasn't a big one--just enough to spark an unexpected G1-class geomagnetic storm. Greg Ash photographed the afterglow from Duluth, Minnesota. "It was really neat listening to the ice growl and shift while watching the auroras," says Ash. "A meteor streaked through the frame just as I was taking the picture."

[Puddy Galore]

Wasn’t quite sure where to put this but decided here might be the place.  Eerie red sky reported in China.

E China's rare red sky caused by the refraction of lights from fishing boats: local meteorologist

WWW.GLOBALTIMES.CN

---

The local meteorological bureau of Zhoushan, a city in East China's Zhejiang Province announced on Sunday that the red sky that appeared in this area was caused...

 

 

[Katrine Basso]

Something, that I cannot understand, is as we are entering solar maximum there have been very few auroras.  There seemed to me more auroras during solar minimum. 

[Uncle_Barty]

On 14/05/2022 at 11:06, Katrine Basso said:

Something, that I cannot understand, is as we are entering solar maximum there have been very few auroras.  There seemed to me more auroras during solar minimum. 

2 main reasons for this, so far as I'm concerned:

1. Active sunspot regions tend to be at higher latitudes in the earlier part of a solar cycle, meaning that eruptions are not quite as Earth directed as they would be if occurring closer to the equator.

2. During the declining part of the cycle, coronal holes (that promote higher solar wind) are more prevelant than during the early part of the cycle.

 

[Katrine Basso]

Thank you for your kind explanation.

[Arnie Pie]

Manged to capture sunspot  AR3014, which is one of the largest Sunspots for years, late this afternoon

 

 

[Katrine Basso]

AURORA FROTH OVER MINNESOTA: No solar flares. No CMEs. No problem. Yesterday morning in Minnesota, auroras appeared unprompted by a solar storm. Greg Ash photographed the display from Ely, MN:

Aurora Borealis / Northern Lights LIVE HIGHLIGHTS!

10 watching now Started streaming 5 hours ago These are the highlights from our live stream northern lights cameras.

[Arnie Pie]

sunspot A3014 still raging

[Sparkiee storm]

I don't know if this has already been mentioned on this thread but its clear that solar cycle 25 is starting much stronger and much earlier than forecast. Any idea's what could be causing this? Some say it could be "something happening" in space that's making the sun active much earlier than the forecast. Some also say its likely we could see a huge flare somewhere between now and 2025, with some even predicting a Carrington style event or maybe an event that narrowly missed earth back in 2012, but no hard evidence on that. Certainly some odd behaviour though.

 

Solar Cycle Progression | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

WWW.SWPC.NOAA.GOV

[Don]

1 hour ago, Sparkiee storm said:

I don't know if this has already been mentioned on this thread but its clear that solar cycle 25 is starting much stronger and much earlier than forecast. Any idea's what could be causing this? Some say it could be "something happening" in space that's making the sun active much earlier than the forecast. Some also say its likely we could see a huge flare somewhere between now and 2025, with some even predicting a Carrington style event or maybe an event that narrowly missed earth back in 2012, but no hard evidence on that. Certainly some odd behaviour though.

 

Solar Cycle Progression | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

WWW.SWPC.NOAA.GOV

Wasn't some forecast agencies going for a strong solar cycle 25, though?  Not great news for those who want a quiet sun!

Edited May 27, 2022 by Don

[Sparkiee storm]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Wasn't some forecast agencies going for a strong solar cycle 25, though?  Not great news for those who want a quiet sun!

I'm not sure, i first started taking notice in January when NOAA said it was outperforming the official forecast and actual counts are stronger than predicted, but whether or not they said anything before then I'm not sure.

[Uncle_Barty]

Official sunspot count was actually zero a couple of days ago, but despite that, the solar flux was still around 100sfu. Quite a few regions about to rotate into view, so just one spotless day it is, then.

[Don]

On 10/06/2022 at 13:38, Uncle_Barty said:

Official sunspot count was actually zero a couple of days ago, but despite that, the solar flux was still around 100sfu. Quite a few regions about to rotate into view, so just one spotless day it is, then.

Was that the first spotless day of 2022?

[Uncle_Barty]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Was that the first spotless day of 2022?

yes.

[Arnie Pie]

Just after some opinions from the Sunnier folk 

 

They have finally released the daisy`s for the 12th and 13th of June, and has produced one of them  moments

I was concerned how this season was going to be affected by the start of the solar cycle ...  so I've had one eye on the Sun this year ( I may of mentioned)

I was interested to see the 12th daisy because it was related to our sightings on that morning

and it was the vital 2 day out daisy and we all had our eye`s on that solid clump at the top of the 'clock'

Here's the 12 and 13 daisy's

Lovely .. the lump has travelled from the 3 day out area (10 o`clock)  around to the 2 day area (Noon)

and therefore could be expected to have travelled around to the 1 day out area (2/3 o`clock)

This was not expected

one of the most noticeable turbulent daisy`s I`ve ever seen( visibly impacted in my view)

What could have caused this?

 

Spaceweather.com Time Machine

WWW.SPACEWEATHER.COM

The turbulence also being picked up on the time lapses of the event

Edited June 16, 2022 by Arnie Pie

[Katrine Basso]

I can verify that there was a spotless day on the 9th June but the solar flux unit was 100 sfu. Since then the sun has been very active with a high number of sunspots with today's number at 149 with a 140 sfu.

[Don]

On 18/06/2022 at 10:32, Katrine Basso said:

I can verify that there was a spotless day on the 9th June but the solar flux unit was 100 sfu. Since then the sun has been very active with a high number of sunspots with today's number at 149 with a 140 sfu.

Oh dear..... 

[Katrine Basso]

Sometimes a near-miss is close enough: ON July 1st, a CME passed close to Earth. It did not hit. Instead, it snowploughed some dense solar wind plasma in our direction. That was enough to spark a G1-class geomagnetic storm with auroras across many northern-tier US states. Rocky Raybell sends this picture from Keller, Washington: