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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

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1 hour ago, Minus 10 said:

Tamitha skov youtube channel... she is a brilliant space weather expert. 

Thanks btw!

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27 days blank, 226 for 2019, 75%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 5.10

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55 of the last 58 days have been spotless. It feels as though the period between spots has grown longer as the year has progressed. 

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28 days blank, 227 for 2019, 75%

Solar flux 70

Thermosphere: 5.11

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Plenty of sightings last night in the North..

Screenshot_20191031_063049_com.facebook.katana.thumb.jpg.0f020e72597c599c7195c39311574ed6.jpg

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ARCTIC ALERT FOR AURORA BOO-REALIS: Earth is entering a stream of solar wind flowing from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere. This is causing geomagnetic unrest and auroras around the Arctic Circle. Tour guide Marianne Bergli photographed the display from the island of Ringvassøy, Norway:

norway_strip Arctic Alert for Aurora Boo-realis.jpg

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neutron count =9.2%=high

tci = 48.8 billion watts

 

big drop in temperature up in the thermosphere today.

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The beginnings of solar cycle 25, sunspot observed at the suns southern polarity. Long way to go with solar minimum though, at least another year. 2009 count should still be beaten. Will solar cycle 25 be a deeper minimum?

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1 hour ago, Minus 10 said:

The beginnings of solar cycle 25, sunspot observed at the suns southern polarity. Long way to go with solar minimum though, at least another year. 2009 count should still be beaten. Will solar cycle 25 be a deeper minimum?

It is a pity that a new cycle sunspot has appeared (albeit not the first). Let's hope that the ascent to solar maximum will be very slow.

2009 had 71% spotless days so that's the one to beat. It is quite a task

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20 minutes ago, karyo said:

It is a pity that a new cycle sunspot has appeared (albeit not the first). Let's hope that the ascent to solar maximum will be very slow.

2009 had 71% spotless days so that's the one to beat. It is quite a task

I think the next few weeks will be telling! which ever way you look at it though, solar cycle 25 looks like it will be very quiet, it's just how quiet!

Edited by SteveB

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We are on course to beat 08 still on the basis of the last four months. Third is still possible for spotless years, second possible but unlikely.

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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

We are on course to beat 08 still on the basis of the last four months. Third is still possible for spotless years, second possible but unlikely.

not sure what you mean by this. As I said a little while ago I think something around the 270/275 mark is likely. We have 60 days left and if we remain at 75% then that would be 273. Given the last 6 months is higher than 75% we could be nearer 280.

I think 2020 could well be similar to 2019 but with a very quiet first half with an uptick later in the year

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12 hours ago, Minus 10 said:

The beginnings of solar cycle 25, sunspot observed at the suns southern polarity. Long way to go with solar minimum though, at least another year. 2009 count should still be beaten. Will solar cycle 25 be a deeper minimum?

Doesn't absolutely have to be a SC 25 Sunspot, could feasibly be a reverse polarity SC24 one especially (possibly!) as its near the South Pole, remember reading somewhere that this is a not inconceivable...

Probably is though!

Edited by JeffC

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9 hours ago, jonboy said:

not sure what you mean by this. As I said a little while ago I think something around the 270/275 mark is likely. We have 60 days left and if we remain at 75% then that would be 273. Given the last 6 months is higher than 75% we could be nearer 280.

I think 2020 could well be similar to 2019 but with a very quiet first half with an uptick later in the year

The last four months has seen a higher than 90% spotless rate, no reason right now to think that will change.

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A TAURID FIREBALL WITH AURORAS: Photographer and aurora tour guide Oliver Wright couldn't go trick or treating on Oct. 31st. "I experienced some Halloween magic anyway," he says. "I was guiding a group of hikers from Portugal and had just set up my camera near an old sauna in Abisko, Sweden, when --woosh!-- the biggest shooting star I've seen this season flew through the sky."

taurid_strip A taurid fireball with auroras.jpg

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Big drop in thermosphere temps, 45.6 billion watts as of yesterday. Kp index for next 24 hours=0.

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14 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

The last four months has seen a higher than 90% spotless rate, no reason right now to think that will change.

I hadn't worked it myself but not surprised by the 90% and agree there appears to be no reason why the next couple of months won't be the same

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53 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

Big drop in thermosphere temps, 45.6 billion watts as of yesterday. Kp index for next 24 hours=0.

Out of interest, what is the current thermosphere temperature? And what was it, before it fell?

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2nd november: tci = 44.0 billion watts. Another drop today possibly due to solar winds dropping in speed and kp index flatlining to 0.

Edited by Minus 10

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Another sunspot has appeared, this time from the old cycle. 

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LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY REVEALS RED AURORAS: Chris Hodgson has seen a lot of green auroras over Abisko, Sweden. He's an aurora tour guide and has taken hundreds of photos of green skies inside the Arctic Circle. Last night, however, was a little different. The green was topped with red:

red_strip LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY REVEALS RED AURORAS.jpg

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