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Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
    1 minute ago, weirpig said:

    Thanks. Another question if I may. If it does happen like you said how rare are these events . I can never remember them bring visable this far south . 

    Rare enough, especially during sunspot minimum. Last big one I saw was the Halloween aurora 2003 when reports came in from Florida and Texas.

    We were not that far past the closest approach of Mars in the August and as well as very strong lights to the North, Mars was South of overhead and the sky was bathed in a red glow. I think that was also when a good part of the Canadian power grid was knocked out.

    So yep, pretty rare.

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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Just catching up wow, Hopefully some nice displays soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but Rain!
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
    2 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

    Just catching up wow, Hopefully some nice displays soon.

    Hopefully thats all it is. Until the satelite confirms the CME direction theres danger.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Just having a flick through the archives. One of the most powerful storms was The Carrington event of September, 1859. Were the northern lights were visible as far south as Cuba. If that ever happened again  that would spell big trouble for us 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    probably a naïve question but could this be the sun's last hurrah before going very quiet for an extended period?

    A bit like a lawn mower revving up as it uses last dregs of petrol from the carb...

    Edited by JeffC
    quiet for quite!
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Beverley, East Yorks. (2 metres a.s.l.)
  • Weather Preferences: Something good in all four seasons
  • Location: Near Beverley, East Yorks. (2 metres a.s.l.)

    How exciting .. one of my dreams is to see 'the lights'.
    Please, please let this happen while I'm up here in Fife ..
    but the weather forecast isn't at all good .. eek !

    B.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    20 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    Perhaps the forecasts RE solar activity have all been wrong and we're heading into a new cycle which is already starting to ramp up?

    IIRC someone did say a few months back they weren't sure whether or not the polarity had already been reversed and what we were seeing were new cycle sunspots.

     

    Oh I hope not!  I think I did see somewhere a few months ago that a new cycle sunspot had appeared.

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
    53 minutes ago, Beverley Lass said:

    How exciting .. one of my dreams is to see 'the lights'.
    Please, please let this happen while I'm up here in Fife ..
    but the weather forecast isn't at all good .. eek !

    B.  

    Nothing has kicked of yet (10.00pm) and Kirkcaldy is clouded out. Probably the best bet is to be ready for a quick run to either Crail or St. Andrews.

    Aurora are forecast for tonight and tomorrow with the big one sometime over the weekend. Trick is to find a rain/cloud shadow with clear skies. May have to travel to Peterhead/Gardenstown direction if it stays SW, otherwise just sit tight and hope!

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    More chance of seeing a unicorn hereabouts due to cloud cover

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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    spaceweather: 1202 UT, sunspot AR2673 unleashed a major X9.3-class solar flare--the strongest solar flare in more than a decade. X-rays and UV radiation from the blast ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a strong shortwave radio blackout over Europe, Africa and the Atlantic Ocean.

    blackoutmap.thumb.jpg.f6e491eecb53099351c4b90e5082581c.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 hour ago, Don said:

    Oh I hope not!  I think I did see somewhere a few months ago that a new cycle sunspot had appeared.

    Would certainly put the kibosh on proceedings.

    Is the sun about to fool everyone again?

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    Its made the news.

    Most powerful solar flare in decade causes radio blackouts

    High-frequency radio experienced a wide area of blackouts and loss of contact for an hour - low frequency communication also hit.

    http://news.sky.com/story/most-powerful-solar-flare-in-decade-causes-radio-blackouts-11023629

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    It's worth noting that there was an X9 flare in Dec 2006 (and indeed an X6 the day before) at more or less the same point in the solar cycle as we are now. The current groups are likely at too low a latitude to belong to the next cycle. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Strong M Class flares continue this morning.

    Screenshot_20170907-130932.thumb.png.0ddf3017462e25f3c024747173ab0d23.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    So what happened last night?

    Stayed up untill midnight and saw the first M class CME from the 5th. arrive. Solarham have virtually real time graphs  and the kick is quite pbvious. Loooking at the plots, the solar wind speed wasn't too bad but Bz magnetic orientation was barely South at any time. All in all, so far not much of an event. About Kp4 max and we really need KP 6 or above.

    Have seen one really nice pic on FB of a bright red aurora over Ben Nevis from last night but here on the East it was persistent low cloud that not even the almost full moon could penetrate.

    So I went to bed! Today is another day though but the weather is really keech with drizzle interspersed with heavy showers. Hopefully it will improve later.

    Edited by frogesque
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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    7pm. and Bz nicely tipping south at approx -10°

    Auroral oval showing a red indicator, 90% chance, over Russia atm so as skys darken here hopefully it will swing round to favour the British Isles.

    Weather has been abysmal all day here and it's still cloudy but looking a bit brighter.  Will assess situation after dark and decide if it's worth a trip.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    And another X class flare..

    Screenshot_20170907-200826.thumb.png.7a8f581ed71fd5f43858588e3b5ebbb7.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
    11 hours ago, Yarmy said:

    It's worth noting that there was an X9 flare in Dec 2006 (and indeed an X6 the day before) at more or less the same point in the solar cycle as we are now. The current groups are likely at too low a latitude to belong to the next cycle. 

     

    Yes, note the general increase in activity at the end of 2006 (crudely highlighted in the graph below) at a similar point in the cycle to currently.  Although the graph doesn't yet include September, it looks like we are still on the descending curve of the cycle towards minimum.

    sc24.thumb.PNG.c67c7dea43c177ed5328cbfd424cbeda.PNG

    To my limited knowledge, even in more active cycles you'd expect to see a greater descent before activity picks up again:

    130_12.png

    This article suggests we saw the first SC25 spot back in December last year, but that the cycles actually overlap over a 4 year period
    http://www.stce.be/node/359

    ..and it's worth noting the comments in this forum which quote the NOAA as announcing the first SC24 spot has appeared back in 2008- before the minimum of 2009/10:
    https://www.ssca.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=5208

    Some researchers believe that the next cycle could be more active than the current one, however - e.g. http://www.spaceclimate.fi/SC6/presentations/session2a/Dean_Pesnell_SC6.pdf (slide 13)

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Kp 8 Severe for at least the next 24hr, CME arriving earlier than expected ☺

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
    12 hours ago, frogesque said:

    7pm. and Bz nicely tipping south at approx -10°

    Auroral oval showing a red indicator, 90% chance, over Russia atm so as skys darken here hopefully it will swing round to favour the British Isles.

    Weather has been abysmal all day here and it's still cloudy but looking a bit brighter.  Will assess situation after dark and decide if it's worth a trip.

    Any luck, frogesque?

    I was sky watching between 1am - 2.30am or thereabouts, patchy cloud but no show except for ( maybe) a greenish glow to the north of my home location. The moonshine is still quite bright.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Lovely shot taken off the net from last night.

    Screenshot_20170908-093148.thumb.png.14eb33476c3bb2dcfba2f40b57446876.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
    2 hours ago, ciel said:

    Any luck, frogesque?

    I was sky watching between 1am - 2.30am or thereabouts, patchy cloud but no show except for ( maybe) a greenish glow to the north of my home location. The moonshine is still quite bright.

    Yep!

    Was just a few clear patches in the cloud so headed off to St. Andrews. Good move, had fairly clear sky most of the night. 100 or so pics later I got back home about 4am, frozen and knacked!

    Not long up and need to take dog out so haven't downloaded pics yet. Will post some later.

    Still looking good for tonight but as always need the weather gods to smile on us.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Looking forward to those Frogesque...

    Some nice pix from Scotland and Northern England here...  https://wp.lancs.ac.uk/aurorawatchuk/2017/09/08/aurora-dances-across-the-uk-skies/

    36924747342_4f61090bd4_k.jpg?resize=768,

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    A good chance of seeing Aurora tonight with clear sky's or spells forecast for parts ☺

    Another strong M 8 flare in the past few hours.

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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