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Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 3 days
2017 total: 47 days (24%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

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Current stretch takes us to 4 spotless day's

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5th spotless day in a row, two more and we will equal 2010 for spotless day's

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Now at 50 for the year 

At current pace we are looking around 90 for the year. 

2006 had 70 and 2007 had 152 so it looks like we are tracking between the two. 

Edited by summer blizzard

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If you read any of Ant Masiello's tweets you'll have noticed that he was suggesting the Atlantic would become more active after the solar burst in mid July. Might just be coincident but pattern changed substantially following the most recent geomag events.

ql_musiyymm.gif

Some recent research and it is not behind a paywall. :)

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2782/full

A useful tool for checking detail on current activity.

https://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/

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Another blank day.

Today's count is 51

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SC25 max predictions using various methods will start to appear over the next 18 months of so. Here's one of the first I've noticed, and it uses our old friend Shannon Entropy! :smile:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318367508_Shannon_Entropy-Based_Prediction_of_Solar_Cycle_25

They go low, 63+/-11.3.

Buyer beware: the SC24 max predictions were all over the shop as can be seen here:

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html

 

 

 

 

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looks to be considerably lower than that predicted for cycle 24

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Now at 52 days beating 2010. 

Next target is 2006 at 70. 

The last solar cycle was originally forecast to be around the same as 01 but was heavily revised because of the depth of the minima we saw. 

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We have now reached 53 spotless days.

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We have gone past the spotless days (52 I think) of the whole of 2010 and we still have 5 months to go!! And then the infamous winter of 2010 happened !! 

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51 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

We have gone past the spotless days (52 I think) of the whole of 2010 and we still have 5 months to go!! And then the infamous winter of 2010 happened !! 

Just saying like!!

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1 hour ago, John Badrick said:

Just saying like!!

 You've jinxed it now! lol

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2 hours ago, John Badrick said:

We have gone past the spotless days (52 I think) of the whole of 2010 and we still have 5 months to go!! And then the infamous winter of 2010 happened !! 

That was the other side of solar min though. 

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Yes, proper cold winters tend to crop up when we're heading out of solar minimum, not when we're heading in (like we are now).  Not saying that this winter will not be cold though.  In fact, this current solar descent is proving to be quite rapid and it did not start from a high level of activity relative to previous solar maximas

As always, time will tell.

David, Northallerton

 

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Currently on 54 spotless day's

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I would imagine the so called spot with a count of 12 will be gone tomorrow and back to spotless

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57 minutes ago, jonboy said:

I would imagine the so called spot with a count of 12 will be gone tomorrow and back to spotless

It's decayed already, but was enough to break the SIDC 12 day spotless streak. Old region 2665 has been producing fireworks on the far side and will rotate back into view in the next day or so, so we'll see what remains of that.

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On 28/07/2017 at 22:23, Brucie said:

Yes, proper cold winters tend to crop up when we're heading out of solar minimum, not when we're heading in (like we are now).  Not saying that this winter will not be cold though.  In fact, this current solar descent is proving to be quite rapid and it did not start from a high level of activity relative to previous solar maximas

As always, time will tell.

David, Northallerton

 

Yes, there was some interesting research mentioned in last year's Netweather winter forecast which showed that the biggest connection between the NAO and solar activity is actually a trend towards +NAO and the declining part of the cycle.  

300xNxfigure3a.png.pagespeed.ic.h5yKhq5b

300xNxfigure3.gif.pagespeed.ic.Hd8MuWTbf

Original forecast here with more info: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-2016;sess=#

Based on the graph, we're still in declining and likely to be until 2019.  Winter 2009-10 and 2010-11 both look to have been in the minimum phase, once activity has bottomed out and is very gradually increasing.  Interestingly even Feb 2009, the first significant cold spell for many years here, was just after activity had hit rock bottom if I've read the graph correctly.

The other fascinating thing about this analysis is that while many associate solar minimum with a greater likelihood of -NAO and the potential for colder UK winter weather, historically it seems both ascending and solar maximum are just as likely to result in -NAO, this just hasn't occurred in maximum for a couple of cycles.

The isolated dark blue -NAO in the descending phase of cycle 17 is an interesting exception and seems to correspond with winter 1939-40.

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1 hour ago, SteveB said:

Well the sun has gone blank again,

55 day's blank for the year so far

http://www.spaceweather.com/

The spaceweather site is always one day behind. Returning sunspot group AR2665 rotated back onto the east limb yesterday:

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_HMIIF.jpg

This one first appeared on the 6th of July on the east limb (and presumably bubbled up a bit before then on the far side), so is one of the longest lasting groups of the cycle. The record longevity for one group is 6 months from June to December in 1943.

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The sunspot is now quiet and smaller than it used to be.

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Sunspot 2670 should be gone in the next few days so we should breach 60 pretty soon. 

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9 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Sunspot 2670 should be gone in the next few days so we should breach 60 pretty soon. 

It was such a nuisance preventing us from getting spotless days but unable to produce any flares. 

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