Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[full_frontal_occlusion]

Try these:

Lanacster January 2005

Durham October 2003

Fokstone, Kent October 2003

Bedford March 2001

Canterbury, Kent July 2000

Bodmin, Cornwall April 2000

ffO

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Still no sunspots!

Spaceweather

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Hi Bob I've been keeping my eye on this, and re my topic about Hale Winters in the learning thread, what is your opinion on the effect of the lack of sunspots on the forthcoming winter?

Well as we know a Hale winter is every 22 years (2 x 11 year solar cycles) and it was thought that last winter would be one (since the previous one was in 1985) however, the cycles are approximately every 11 and 22 years not exactly so, so it could just as easily be this year, particularly as we haven't seen the start of Solar Cycle 24 yet. There is a wider issue here though and that is the belief that this lack of activity from the sun heralds the beginning of a phase of eventually deep and prolonged cooling called the Gleissberg Minima. If you want to get some idea of what were talking about try Googling "Maunder Minimum" or indeed you could speak to BFTP as this is a favourite subject of his, as it is of mine, but he's a lot better versed in it than I am

As for my opinion of this winter. I expect it to be much colder than we have been used to of late, but not exceptionally so, as this whole process has only just begun. What I mean by that is a winter either on or close to the long-term average. Even that, after the mild winters weve had, will come as a bit of a shock!

[Rustynailer]

Good, too many pests about, can't grow veg like I used too, yet its generally warmer

I for one look forward to the next solar cycle.

Regards,

Russ

[mettalfabrik]

following from the above posts ,here is an article from the newsletter from http://www.popastro.com/ The society for popular Astronomy (one of my favourite sites)

FIRST SPOTLESS SUN IN NEARLY A CENTURY

NASA

According to data from Mount Wilson Observatory, UCLA, more than

an entire month has passed without a spot. The last time such an event

occurred was June of 1913. Sunspot data has been collected since

1749. The event is significant as many climatologists now believe solar

magnetic activity – which determines the number of sunspots -- is an

influencing factor for climate on earth.

When the sun is active, it's not uncommon to see sunspot numbers of

100 or more in a single month. Every 11 years, activity slows, and

numbers briefly drop to near-zero. Normally sunspots return very

quickly, as a new cycle begins. But this year -- which corresponds to

the start of Solar Cycle 24 -- has been extraordinarily long and quiet,

with the first seven months averaging a sunspot number of only 3.

August followed with none at all. The astonishing rapid drop of the

past year has defied predictions, and caught nearly all astronomers

by surprise. In the past 1000 years, three previous such events -- the

Dalton, Maunder, and Spörer Minimums, have all led to rapid cooling.

One was large enough to be called a "mini ice age".

as i know already,it appears things a,int going as predicted for solar cycle 24,these are indeed fascinating times for solar observers

Bryan

Edited September 12, 2008 by blackdown

[mettalfabrik]

well i,ll be blowed, should have read todays spaceweather LOL

not much of a sunspot but its there allright

[laserguy]

well i,ll be blowed, should have read todays spaceweather LOL

not much of a sunspot but its there allright

http://www.solarcycle24.com/index2.htm

Now you see it,now you don't! It's disappeared already,but there might be two more ready to make an appearance.

[laserguy]

So with the appearance of these 'spots' does it diminish the chance of a Hale winter?

Um,your guess is as good as mine! Hale winters are associated with the solar minimums which bookend the intervening 22 years (approx) regardless of actual 'spot count'. Just checked and the two spots I mentioned haven't actually been confirmed as yet,they are merely plage regions. Either way,cycle 24 is way overdue and simply can't appear to get properly underway. Debatably,August was spotless (the sun!),first time since 1913,apparently. Whenever a spot appears it either doesn't develop fully or is very fleeting (as the last one,designated No.1001). What the implications are if this situation persists for much longer - say into 2009 - is the subject of much debate and increasing concern amongst those 'in the know' (that doesn't mean me!). Should be 'interesting' to see how things pan out if the ongoing minimum doesn't pass fairly soon. As SC mentioned earlier,BFTP is well keyed up on this so he needs to step forward and enlighten us all!

[Typhoon John]

We are still in deep minimum. These spots are hardly worth recording since they are so small.

We probably haven't even reach the absolute minimum yet. The length of this minimum and the slow start to solar cycle 24 may not be unusual but it is when compared to recent solar cycles. It will be an interesting few years as a cycle like this has never been recorded with all the data we collect now. It gives us the opportunity to see what is happening to the sun and record any effects it has on the earth, if any.

Personally, I'm not a big fan of the AGW theory but I would stop short of saying there are no human affects on the global climate. Overall though I think natural influences are far greater with solar variance being one of those factors. I wouldn't be surprised to see the global cooling of the last few years continue and become a trend if cycle 24 is small. There has certainly been no warming of the globe in the last decade.

Edited September 13, 2008 by fozi999

[mettalfabrik]

latest from SIDC

GEOALERT BRU258

UGEOA 30512 80914 1250/ 9930/

10142 21142 30142

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 14 Sep 2008 until 16 Sep 2008

PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Sep 2008 10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 015

PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Sep 2008 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 021

PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Sep 2008 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 011

COMMENT: The solar activity is at its lowest levels. After descending

to 280 km/s, the solar wind speed is now slowly increasing. ACE data is

showing the first signs of the influence of the coronal hole related

solar wind stream. Geomagnetic conditions will be unsettled to active

today and tomorrow, with possible isolated minor storm periods.

[mettalfabrik]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04

Serial Number: 1558

Issue Time: 2008 Sep 15 1700 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Extension to Serial Number: 1557

Valid From: 2008 Sep 14 2215 UTC

Now Valid Until: 2008 Sep 15 2359 UTC

Warning Condition: Onset

[opplevelse]

yes there was a possibility we might have seen aurora ourselves on Sunday and tonight, but it is fully overcast http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif Oh well, I'm back in Tromsø around the end of the month for a few days and there is a decent chance for a storm about the same time ... I might take my camera up this time.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Folks

I'll give a little imput as to the current situation and as to a response to certain posts. Solar cycles are basically 11 years in length from minima to minima or peak to peak [known as Gleissberg cycles]. Hale cycle hence is two cycles and is every 22 years and refers to the minima of each second cycle. Now the fact is that solar cycles vary in length ranging from betwen 9-13 years. The more intense the sunspot activity the shorter the cycle and the lower the activity the longer the cycle. Cycle 22 was intense and lasted 9.8 years, cycle 23 was less active and still officially hasn't ended...we await confirmation.

Now some folk get confused as regards to minima and true minima. The end of each cycle is NOT true minima a la Maunder, Dalton and Sporer which all coincided with very cold climate on the planet. These are part of a bigger cycle.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'll try again

Hi Folks

I'll give a little imput as to the current situation and as to a response to certain posts. Solar cycles are basically 11 years in length from minima to minima or peak to peak [known as Schwabe cycles]. Hale cycle hence is two cycles and is every 22 years and refers to the minima of each second cycle. Now the fact is that solar cycles vary in length ranging from betwen 9-13 years. The more intense the sunspot activity the shorter the cycle and the lower the activity the longer the cycle. Cycle 22 was intense and lasted 10.8 years, cycle 23 was less active and still officially hasn't ended...we await confirmation.

Now some folk get confused as regards to minima and true minima. The end of each cycle is NOT true minima a la Maunder, Dalton and Sporer which all coincided with very cold climate on the planet. These are part of bigger cycles.

22 years is the Hale cycle. Each '11' year cycle the magnetic pole of the sun reverses and so each Hale cycle it returns to its original state. I believe the magnetic field forcing affects Earth hence coincides with colder winter. Remember the Hale cycle occurs only when minima is reached on the second cycle NOT after 22 years per se.

87 years (70–100 years): Gleissberg cycle, named after Wolfgang Gleissberg, is thought to be an amplitude modulation of the 11-year Schwabe Cycle

210 years: Suess cycle (

2,300 years: Hallstatt and so on

Now what we approach is that cycle 24 is anticipated by certain astrophysicists to be a low sunspot cycle and the way it is heading it is and could well be even lower than their predictions. It isn't until cycle 25 that the true minima is expected around 2027 which is now anticipated to be on a Dalton scale or possible even Maunder [Little Ice Age].

Impacts of current situation - I believe there is what is known as the perturbation cycle. This occurs every 35 years approx and lasts for that period approx. This is when either La Nina or El Nino DOMINATE that period. In Feb 07 we entered the new perturbation cycle where La Nina is expected to dominate [occur more frequently and more strongly] than El Nino [interestingly the warming of the 90s had both El Nino domination and +ve PDO jointly]. El Nino 'died' in Feb 07 which caught large agencies by surprise but was bang on cue with the cycle [solar influenced]. This has now 'coincided' with a -ve PDO which is NOT THE SAME as perturbation where as you can see on SST maps a cold reverse C in the Pacific off the west coast of the USA. Sunspots are non existent in relative terms, yes its not abnormal as it has happened before BUT each time this has happened it has 'coincided' with cold climate on Earth.

Debatable but last Hale winter was EITHER 84/5 or 85/6...both were cold winters in UK. Now either way cycle 22 was 10.8 years which means that either cycle 23 started in late 95 or late 96. Cycle 23 hasn't or had not upto April NOT ended so last winter could NOT have been the Hale winter. Yes Hale winter is late because cycle 23 is long BECAUSE we are heading towards a true minima. This winter will PROBABLY be the Hale winter.

Now looking at other factors ie GWO theory and the LRF method I use I believe there is a little 'shock' round the corner this winter....look at the winter thread for my early CET punt. Freeze? don't know...cold...we'll see.

Hope this helps

BFTP

[mettalfabrik]

good post BFTP,and nicely explained, this is something i am following with great interest eversince the predicted cycle23 minimum of late 2006, although i thought all the major players had decided that cycle 24 began earlier this with the appreance of the first reverse polarity sunspot ,i stand to be corrected though

regards

bryan

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

although i thought all the major players had decided that cycle 24 began earlier this with the appreance of the first reverse polarity sunspot ,i stand to be corrected though

regards

bryan

Yes that is the case BUT 23 hasn't ended or hadn't upto April

BFTP

[Anti-Mild]

Yes that is the case BUT 23 hasn't ended or hadn't upto April

BFTP

That's true. I think that the last sunspot to appear was a cycle 23 one.

[LadyPakal]

INteresting maybe?

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/sep/H...conference.html

NASA To Discuss Conditions On And Surrounding The Sun

[laserguy]

INteresting maybe?

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/sep/H...conference.html

NASA To Discuss Conditions On And Surrounding The Sun

Was just about to post that when I saw you'd bet me to it,LP. Intriguing indeed,can't wait to see what's said on Tuesday. I think it'll either be "OMG all that stuff about 2012 is true",or "global warming cancelled and ice-age II is coming".

[Typhoon John]

This will either be one of the most exciting announcements or the biggest anticlimax of the year.

[laserguy]

This will either be one of the most exciting announcements or the biggest anticlimax of the year.

Nah,the switching on of the LHC already has that accolade firmly in the bag .

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Whats the betting they reel off a load of stuff about how unusual the sun is behaving and then try and maintain the fiction that theres really nothing particularly unusual going on

[mettalfabrik]

Whats the betting they reel off a load of stuff about how unusual the sun is behaving and then try and maintain the fiction that theres really nothing particularly unusual going on

spot on coastie.it will be like NOAA,s report on summer temps in the USA where they rave about the above average temps,but at the bottom of the report it turns out that it was only 22nd warmest summer since records began there!

lets see what they say,as it certainly isn,t performing as predicted

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

In truth this upcoming 'true' minima which is likely to bottom in cycle 25 not 24 ,and I anticipate being of Dalton to Maunder proportions, isn't 'unusual' inasmuch it happens on a cyclical basis [see my earlier post]. However, what they should address and accept is that the sun IS entering a serious quiet phase which IMO is going to bring significant global cooling [upto 2c in 15 years]. I am pleased as I've been touting this for some considerable time based on my reading of Landshceidt and other astrophysicists.

Bring It On!

BFTP

[Mondy]

...and just in time for the conference, a rather nice SC24 new region has grown!

http://www.solarcycle24.com/