Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[ciel]

23 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Scotland have a good chance of seeing Aurora now.

Currently  5kp.  Clear here,  but no sightings.

[Polar Maritime]

Plenty of reports coming in on the net, Some nice live veiwing on the Shetland No'3 Webcam to just now.

[Polar Maritime]

 

[Polar Maritime]

AURORAS THIS WEEK? NOAA forecasters say there is a 50% chance of G1-class geomagnetic storms on April 13th when a negative-polarity solar wind stream is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. http://spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

QUIET UNTIL MONDAY: Geomagnetic activity should remain low throughout the weekend. Conditions could shift to an active state on Monday, April 18th, when Earth enters a stream of high-speed solar wind. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras early next week. http://spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

Aurora just visible on the live Shetland cliff No'3 cam now here:http://www.shetland.org/60n/webcams/cliff-cam-3

Currently Kp 4 but we have clean/clean Arctic air over us.

 

Edited April 16, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

 

[Weather-history]

Saw the large sunspot through my solar binoculars and via my solarscope.

[Polar Maritime]

CME, CANCELLED: A CME hurled into space by yesterday's M6.7-class solar flare will not hit Earth, after all. Refined computer modeling by NOAA analysts suggests that the plasma cloud is moving upstream of the sun-Earth line, and will sail wide of our planet on April 20th. http://spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

ALMOST NO CHANCE OF FLARES: Solar activity is very low.  There are two sunspots on the solar disk, but neither one has the type of unstable magnetic field that poses a threat for explosions.  NOAA forecasters say the chance of a strong flare today is no more than 1%. http://spaceweather.com/

 

[bobbydog]

4 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

ALMOST NO CHANCE OF FLARES: Solar activity is very low.  There are two sunspots on the solar disk, but neither one has the type of unstable magnetic field that poses a threat for explosions.  NOAA forecasters say the chance of a strong flare today is no more than 1%. http://spaceweather.com/

 

hi PM, i read spaceweather on a daily basis and have observed that the sunspot number is falling rapidly. obviously there are fluctuations but at the current rate, we could soon see the first spotless day since 2014 (when there was only a single spotless day during the whole year. previous to that, the last spotless day was in 2011) if it maintains this rate of decline, we could even reach solar minimum levels before the end of the year! bearing in mind the actual solar minimum is due in 2020.

todays sunspot number is 11.

Edited April 24, 2016 by bobbydog

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Bobbydog, As you say we could very well end up with a spotless Sun by year end at this rate.

[Polar Maritime]

CHANCE OF STORMS: NOAA forecasters say there is a 65% chance of G1-class geomagnetic storms on May 9th when Earth enters a solar wind stream filled with negative-polarity magnetic fields. A display of high-latitude auroras is possible, especially in the southern hemisphere where darkening autumn skies favor visibility. Antarctic photographers, warm up your cameras! http://spaceweather.com/

Kp5 Storm expected over the next 24hr..

[Polar Maritime]

So last night delivered for parts of Scotland and even as far South as Cumbria (Shap) as Kp levels hit storm 7.. Sat out around 12.30am myself and saw faint Green on the Northern horizon 

 

 

Edited May 9, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

From last night taken off the net.

 

[ciel]

10 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

From last night taken off the net.

 

Missed it again, Polar.  Good photo though.

I thought the forecast was quiet over the W/E

Edited May 15, 2016 by ciel

[Weather-history]

A notable sunspot on the solar disk.

[Polar Maritime]

THE SUN IS FLATLINING: With no sunspots actively flaring, the sun's X-ray output is flatlining. This situation is likely to continue. NOAA forecasters say there is no more than a 1% chance of strong flares for the next 3 days. http://spaceweather.com/

Currently only 15 sunspots on Solar disk today, With the large sunspot AR2546 WH mentioned above continuing very quite regardless of it's size.

 

[jonboy]

Just to clarify there is only 1 sunspot with a number of 15. If you want an explanation it can be found at the glossary section on spaceweather

[jonboy]

As a rule of thumb, if you divide either of the official sunspot numbers by 15, you'll get the approximate number of individual sunspots visible on the solar disk if you look at the Sun by projecting its image on a paper plate with a small telescope

 

The above is taken from Spaceweather's own explanation so there is one sunspot/group with a value of 15

 

[Polar Maritime]

SOLAR SECTOR BOUNDARY CROSSING: Late on May 25th, Earth will cross a fold in the heliospheric current sheet and enter a region of space filled with negative polarity magnetic fields. Such fields can open a crack in Earth's magnetosphere, allowing solar wind to pour in and fuel geomagnetic disturbances.  According to NOAA forecasters, the odds of a G1-class storm is 20% to 30%. http://spaceweather.com/

[Yarmy]

Looks as though we could get our first official spotless day (both the Boulder and SIDC counts) since 2014 and only the 4th since 2010.

http://spaceweather.com

Quote

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2016 total: 0 days (0%)  
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

 

[Polar Maritime]

And there we go, Spotless.

WEEKEND STORMS ARE LIKELY: NOAA forecasters estimate a 70% chance of geomagnetic storms on June 4th and 5th when a solar wind stream hits Earth's magnetic field. Deja vu? This stream has been here before. On May 8th (Mother's Day), it sparked the strongest geomagnetic storm of 2016. During that G3-classevent, auroras were photographed in the USA as far south as Kansas and Arkansas. This time, analysts expect the storm to peak at G2--not as strong as the Mother's Day Storm, but still worth watching. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras,especially in the southern hemisphere where darkening autumn skies favor visibility. http://spaceweather.com/

 

[John Badrick]

THE SUN IS SPOTLESS!!!

[jonboy]

And long may it continue.