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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


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Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

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Yet none of these flares produced CME's of any significance which is highly unusal. Wonder what is going on?

AR2192 now declining rapidly

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SUPER-SUNSPOT PREPARES TO DEPART: The biggest sunspot in nearly 25 years is about to leave the solar disk. This picture from Sergio Castillo of Corona CA shows AR2192 approaching the western limb on Oct. 27th:


westernlimb_strip.jpg


 


http://spaceweather.com/


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HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY: Solar activity is intensifying. Sunspot AR2205 has unleashed at least 4 strong M-class solar flares in the past 24 hours (Nov. 5-6), and it appears that stronger explosions could be in the offing. NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of X-flares on Nov. 6th. http://spaceweather.com/

 

goes-xray-flux.gif

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HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY: Solar activity is intensifying. Sunspot AR2205 has unleashed at least 4 strong M-class solar flares in the past 24 hours (Nov. 5-6), and it appears that stronger explosions could be in the offing. NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of X-flares on Nov. 6th. http://spaceweather.com/

 

goes-xray-flux.gif

 

Intrestingly this time CME's seem to be a part of these solar flares. Will be very interesting if we get an earth facing x class flare with a large CME something not seen for a long time but arguebly something that happens during deeper solar minimums

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 Solar activity remains high as sunspot AR2205 crackles with strong M-class solar flares. CMEs are flying away from the blast site, but so far all of them have missed Earth. This could change, however, as the sunspot turns toward our planet this weekend. NOAA forecasters estimate 55% chance of M-flares and a 25% chance of X-flares on Nov. 7th. http://spaceweather.com/

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X-FLARE! Active sunspot AR2205 erupted again on Nov. 7th (1726 UT) producing a potent X1-class solar flare and a CME. UV radiation from the flare ionized the upper layers of Earth's atmosphere, producing a short-lived HF radio blackout on the dayside of our planet. We do not yet know if the CME is Earth-directed.

 

goes-xray-flux.gif

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QUIET WITH A CHANCE OF FLARES: Old sunspot AR2192 (a.k.a. AR2209) has been quiet for the past two days, but it still poses a threat for strong flares. The sunspot's 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field is unstable and harbors energy for X-class eruptions. If such flare does occur today (NOAA estimates a 25% chance), it will be geoeffective because the sunspot is almost directly facing Earth. http://spaceweather.com/

 

hmi200.gif

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Hi everyone from Russia! Sorry for my Google Translate  :pardon:

Recently I discovered that the aurora even for small perturbations of the magnetosphere is available to watch on my latitude (57 ° N.), not the most northerly. I to periodically review map with the aurora. During its planned viewing evening on November 16, I found that the southern boundary of aurora gets to the 60th parallel:

0_c1b34_c51459dd_M.gif 

Indexes of magnetic storms showed the following values:

0_c1b33_d052d348_M.gif 0_c1b32_b3530e0d_M.gif 

I grabbed my camera, tripod and went to shoot. Eyes really could not see anything, but the photo was something. Ideal conditions for shooting were not - present haze, amplifying glare from lights. However:

0_c1b10_274876d6_M.jpg 0_c1b11_8008daee_M.jpg 0_c1b12_4503791d_M.jpg 

In addition to the terrible glare and noise on the background can be traced flashes of aurora. To make it more clearly, did the animation of the five frames, which shows the "dance" of the aurora:

0_c1b13_62a348fe_orig.gif 

Recall that the first time in his life in the Middle Urals, I saw the aurora 12-13 September this year during a strong magnetic storm:

0_bdb40_daa52ddd_XXXL.jpg 

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I'm lucky enough to have just come back from a 6 day holiday to the north of Norway, I flew to Tromso and then took the ferry up to Kirkenes and back. Rain in Tromso on the 4/12 - it was warmer than Gatwick. Huge storm, with snow and 30m/s wind on the evening of the 6th, this then cleared late evening and the Aurora did it's wonderful dance from 23:00 to 01:00 - first time I've seen it and absolutely magical and fantastic to see. Then it returned on the next evening at 17:00 for a show in the clouds. At 20:00 it returned to light up the whole sky in swirls of pale green and yellow, totally different to the previous days colours and style. Again it returned at 23:00 for a paler white and yellow show. Finally it appeared again on the next evening. Could see huge glows of orange pulsating over the mountains. 3 nights in a row - can't complain about that. Thank you Norway

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whats happened to the 'ovation aurora' site? it used to update every 30 seconds. its gone now and all i can find is one that updatyes every 30 mins.. me n my lad keep an eye on it every night as we both are keen to see it here in the uk. ok, thats rare but we have a few observation points planned in case.

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ALMOST-X FLARE: Active sunspot AR2242 erupted on Dec. 17th, producing anM9-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:


goes-xray-flux.gifm9_strip.jpg


Radio emissions from shock waves billowing away from the blast site suggest that a CME is emerging and possibly heading toward Earth. This possibility has not yet been confirmed, however, by coronagraph data from SOHO. Stay tuned for updates.


More strong flares could be in the offing. AR2242 is growing and it has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field poised to explode again. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of M-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on Dec. 17th. http://spaceweather.com/

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The North could be lucky tonight.

 

SOLSTICE SKY ALERT: Sunday, Dec. 21st is the northern winter solstice. At 6 pm EST, the sun will reach its lowest declination in the celestial sphere, -23.5 degrees, marking the start of winter and the longest night of the year at northern latitudes. The long night could be filled with auroras. NOAA forecasters estimate a 65% chance of polar geomagnetic storms in response to glancing blows by one or two CMEs. Happy solstice! http://spaceweather.com/

 

aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.png

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