Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Polar Maritime]

Thanks WX, & CR.

Very informative posts, Im new to this subject so im still learning.

Keep the updates comeing

Merry Christmas http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smiliz19.gif

[yamkin]

NNOA have 20-40% for high-latitude. Doesn't bode well for viewing chances for anyone south of the Arctic Circle. The interplanetary magnetic field is north, which minimizes the chance even more. Not only that, the Daily Mail were going well OTT prognosticating something that might disrupt radio communications for days (even though the risk of storming they reported was classed as "minor"), which would have needed a major M or even X-class flare/major CME to produce, i.e. something approaching the 1989 X-class event that blacked out large parts of Canada and the US eastern seaboard and caused aurorae that were visible even in Sussex.

Cool video, Yamkin, although if it does become a sunsplatter/vaporizer rather than a sungrazer, the likelihood is that it won't hit an Earth-facing bit of the Sun.

There have been Sungrazers that have hit the sun. One of the most recent is Comet Lovejoy which has baffled the experts. Interesting times ahead.

[Polar Maritime]

http://vimeo.com/21294655 some very nice footage here.

[yamkin]

http-~~-//vimeo.com/21294655 some very nice footage here.

Brilliant footage Polar Maritime.

JUST LOOK HOW SMALL EARTH IS!!

[yamkin]

Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance Reported Over Europe As Sun Unleashes More Flares

SUDDEN IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE: Today around 1320 UT, a wave of ionization swept through the high atmosphere over Europe after sunspot AR1389 unleashed another M2-class solar flare. “There was a very clear sudden ionospheric disturbance on my VLF radio instruments,†reports Rob Stammes, who sends these data from the Polar Light Center in Lofoten, Norway. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of more M-flares during the next 24 hours. There is also a 5% chance of X-flares. Solar winds from the coronal hole seen below should hit Earth on Jan. 2. (Spaceweather)

Courtesy of Extinction Protocol

[GeorgeWX]

The geomagnetic storm due on 29/12 came with a far lesser impact than was expected. With broad agreement between all the players including noaa and sidc for at least minor geomagnetic storming it highlights the fact that everyone can be wrong at the same time and that our scientific knowledge of the sun-earth relationship is still in it's infancy.

The speed of the cme when it arrived at earth was lower than expected at around 400km/s, One possible explanation could be the period before the cme arrival where wind speeds were around or even below 300km/s, causing a drag effect slowing down the ejecta much more than usual as it travels across the solar system. Sub 300km/s is incredibly slow for the solar wind.

Also updated now is the monthly sunspot numbers and sfi, To see the graphs look on the previous page of this thread, the sn came out at 73 and sfi at 141. Both of these numbers represent a drop on the previous month (which we were expecting) but is still on track with the predictions for sc24.

The graph that (to me) stands out and not on the previous page is noaa's Ap progression.

Basically 'Ap' is similar in many ways to the better known 'kp', the main difference being that Ap is measured once daily and Kp measured 8 times daily, Both of these measurements reflect the state of our geomagnetic field.

Shug touched on it recently how the kp level has been almost consistently at 0 or 1 for most of December, this observation is confirmed with a monthly Ap of just '2'.

This matches the lowest Ap measurement of sc24 (Dec 09) which itself was the lowest Ap measurement of the 21st century

Edited January 7, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

I was cut short on my last post having to run a friend to the airport. Where I was going with the post was explaining (the best I can) how the Ap level has been known to have an effect on our weather.

It is arguable whether solar flux or the sunspot count has a direct influence on our global climate, logic tells you it would as the sun is 'the' energy giver and any variable would influence something. Dozens of studies show that there is no or very little change in earth weather in immediate reaction to flux or sn changes.

With Ap though it is a different story as there is some correlation between a high Ap number (15+) and less worldwide cloud cover, on the flip side there's also data that correlates low Ap number and higher levels of cloud cover.

I said before that the Ap was the lowest of the 21st century, below is a historical graph of Ap values from 1844 to 2008.

The only time I see both smoothed and monthly Ap get near to hitting the deck is during solar cycle 14 (1902-1913).

Looking at the sunspot numbers comparing solar cycle 14 to the current it shows a different trend

The sunspot count is trending with sc10 (1855-1867) which was a quiet cycle by modern standards, though we did have the largest ever recorded geomagnetic storm four years into the cycle.

So will we see increased cloud cover and lower temps as a result of really low geomagnetic activity?

Edited January 8, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[drgl]

Interesting, thanks for that George.

[yamkin]

*****MAGNETOSPHERE ALERT*****

Dens.(p/cc) - Particles have extremely increased

V(km/s) - Solar wind energy levels have extremely increased

Density & Speed of Solar Winds = Extreme Pressure on the Magnetosphere

THE MAGNETOSPHERE PLASMA TEMPERATURE HAS DRAMATICALLY INCREASED WITH A MAXIMUM SPIKE AT 19:30 hrs GMT. Furthermore, there are constant fluctuations of Plasma temperature and Density spikes. The angle of the solar wind is indicated by Bz(nT) & By(nT) as negative intermittently which confirms the pressure build. PROTON LEVELS ARE MODERATE TO HIGH. FURTHER EARTHQUAKES, VOLCANO ACTIVITY AND OTHER DISASTERS WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE COSMIC RAYS STRIKING THE EARTH'S CORE.

Edited January 12, 2012 by yamkin

[yamkin]

*****URGENT MAGNETOSPHERE ALERT*****

MAGNETOSPHERE IS UNDER EXTREME PRESSURE. The angle of the solar wind is indicated by Bz(nT) & By(nT) as negative which confirms the increased pressure build. Magnetosphere Plasma Temperature & Density have both dramatically increased. Proton levels are very high. Further earthquakes, volcano activity and other disasters will be greatly influenced by the cosmic rays striking the earth’s core which is also contributing to the heating of the earth’s core.

Edited January 16, 2012 by yamkin

[shuggee]

Anyway, back in the real world, the long hiatus of any discernable solar/aurora activity is becoming a bit dullsville. Any news George?

[Crepuscular Ray]

I'll leave the technical explanations of the planetary Kp indice, etc. to George, but spaceweather.com describes its current state as quite.

There was a pretty C-class solar flare earlier, and accompanying coronal mass ejection (directed at Venus, not Earth):

This is meant to be a movie. If it doesn't work, the original is on www.spaceweather.com:

There's some lovely structure visible in the EIT images, reflecting the magnetic field lines of the sunspots in the SDO images. These were taken after the flare.

None of this actually indicates, however, whether there wll be any upturn in solar activity as a whole or a better likelihood of aurorae.

[shuggee]

Thanks CR. Pretty photos indeed and a good use of the plural of aurora there

Be interesting to hear if this marks a particular point in the solar cycle.

[yamkin]

Earth Directed CME M1.7-Class Solar Flare - 18th Jan 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lJgWB5atP0

NASA SDO - M2.6 Solar Flare on 19th Jan 2012 - Possible Geo Storm on 22nd Jan 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFlPs8u4iow

[GeorgeWX]

Anyway, back in the real world, the long hiatus of any discernable solar/aurora activity is becoming a bit dullsville. Any news George?

Yes dullsville is certainly the feeling when watching all these interesting sunspots quietly rotating without so much as a squeak!

But, there is some interesting developments happening right now.

A few hours ago we see a large eruption coming from around sunspot 1402, this is the same region that CR mentions in the post above. Associated with todays eruption was a M3 flare.

The cme looks super dense and of a moderate speed when looking at Stereo cor2, The Lascos are not long in and are confirming that this is indeed an earth directed event.

NOAA give mention to the cme in their nightly forecast. They anticipate an 'active' geomagnetic field during the cme passage on 21/01. Translated that means a peak kp of 4.

All other forecasters are yet to share their views. I believe that minor storming (kp5-6) sometime during the cme passage is very likely with good potential for more intense storming. The two reasons I think this is firstly, during todays event, there were in fact two earth directed cme's spaced an hour or two apart, the second cme can be seen scooping up the first on cor2 imagery as it is much faster. This should contribute to a higher density and stronger magnetic field within the moving mass of matter. The second reason is that yesterday we see two potential earth directed cme's that may brush past not long before the cme of interest is due to arrive.

So, Saturday night would be a good time for clear skies, UK wide!

I'll pop back on tomorrow evening the first chance I have and update with a more accurate arrival time and more views on the expected earth effects from the forecasters. I'll also source or compile a gif movie of the blast from Lasco c3 as it's a beauty.

Today's sun

Today's long duration flare measuring M3 on x-ray flux

[Crepuscular Ray]

To add to George's movie, this from Soho.

According to spaceweather.com, any effects might be felt on the 21st, although they're not predicting major storming, especially as the interplanetary magnetic field is north at the moment, which always seems to lessen the effects of incoming CMEs.

[GeorgeWX]

This gif movie of Lasco c3 showing the expanding cloud, thanks to spaceweather.

A full halo cloud of matter is visible post eruption meaning that we are well within the trajectory of the cme.

NOAA forecasters still expect kp4 peak. They're on their own now as a couple of other forecasts suggest something bigger is afoot. Royal obs in Belgium updated this morning at around 9am and go for kp5-7, solen's morning report goes for kp4-9 (though they always keep the goal posts wide open). Also mentioned on the forecast of the latter is the high probability of a strong southward IMF (Bz) during the cme passage, due to the magnetic configuration of the active region(s) immediately prior to the eruption. A southward IMF serves to enhance earth effects and opens the door to a stronger geomagnetic storm.

The expected arrival time of the main event is late on Saturday or possibly during the first half of Sunday.

And I'll add this too, the x-ray flux chart again. It's quite staggering that this particular long duration event lasted around 20 hours. The most intense eruption of sc24 in my opinion, despite it only topping at M3.

Edited January 20, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[frogesque]

That suggests a huge volume of material. Looking at the actual blast it seems to have more than one phase with a sizable intense glob after the main event. Could be some tightly knotted flux in amongst it

[GeorgeWX]

On last night's noaa update they changed the forecasted arrival time of the main cme to late on 22/01 with possible minor storming (kp5/G1) after arrival, all other forecasts that get updated daily remain unchanged.

Around 4am this morning ace recorded a small sudden storm commencement. The low wind speed indicates this may have been a shockwave from the large venus directed cme of 16/01.

Solar activity since the strong M3 flare has been low with only occasional and minor C class flaring. Regions 1401 and 1402 still retain magnetic structures capable of further M class flares.

Today's sun showing 1401/2

[yamkin]

Dens.(p/cc) - Particles have extremely increased

V(km/s) - Solar wind energy levels have extremely increased

Density & Speed of Solar Winds = Extreme Pressure on the Magnetosphere

EXTREME PRESSURE ON THE MAGNETOSPHERE. PLASMA TEMPERATURE & DENSITY HAVE INCREASED WITH HUGE SPIKES. The angle of the solar winds as indicated by By(nT) & Bz(nT) are in intermittant negative modes which confirms the extreme pressure build. HIGH PROTON ENERGY PARTICLES ARE STRIKING AFRICA & SOUTH AMERICA RIGHT NOW. THE OUTER BAND PROTONS ARE STRIKING SW ASIA, MIDDLE EAST, EUROPE, CARIBBEAN, WESTERN USA & SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05

Serial Number: 737

Issue Time: 2012 Jan 22 1231 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected

Valid From: 2012 Jan 22 1230 UTC

Valid To: 2012 Jan 22 1800 UTC

Warning Condition: Onset

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Edited January 22, 2012 by yamkin

[frogesque]

Looks a bit like it's a non event for the UK. so far the CME has only managed Kp4 and it's already dropped off to Kp3. May yet be some complex magnetic fields to arrive later in the day but I'm not holding my breath.

We REALLY need an X rated full halo blast to set the skies awash with colour!

[yamkin]

K-indices of 5 or greater indicate storm-level geomagnetic activity around earth

Geomagnetic Storm = Minor

Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur

Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible

[GeorgeWX]

We have been under cme effects since around 6am this morning, from that time until 5pm the magnetic orientation (Bz) of the wind has been predominatly northwards, which suppresses the incoming stream. Since 5pm it has turned to a southward Bz, gradually breaking down earth's defenses and sparking a geomagnetic storm.

'Based on a UK magnetometer, auroral activity may be visible as far south as the Scottish border and NI border. The opportunity may extend further south in the coming hour as Nasa's ace (1hr upstream) has been recording constant sothward Bz since 20.50.

Good luck to anyone going out for a look.

Nasa ace Bz

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_6h.html

UK magnetometer

http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/

snapshot 21.45

[Love Snow]

Any chance this could be seen in Northern England? (just read post above thanks George)

Edited January 22, 2012 by Love Snow

[GeorgeWX]

Any chance this could be seen in Northern England?

Possibly, those southward Bz's recorded at ace translate to a more intense geomagnetic storm, If I was in the Lakes or Newcastle i'd definitely be filling the flask and heading out asap.