Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[GeorgeWX]

Today's sunspot number is 195, smashing the previous high of 173 recorded on 16/09/11, this is due to rapid development around 1324. Today's solar flux at 160.

[GeorgeWX]

One day on and sunspot number a new high of 207. Solar flux at 168.

Active region 1324 has simmered down during the last 24 hours however manages to maintain it's coverage and spot count.

Active region 1319 was responsible for a M1 flare yesterday around 12pm, with it came a large filament eruption. It's unlikely to be geo-effective due to the location of 1319, soon to disappear over the limb.

This morning around 2.30am a C2.5 flare and cme came from a new equatorial region rotating into view on the eastern limb. On the sun map it is labelled 'new1'.

Aside from the above, there has been little flare activity. All that could very easily change in the coming 24 hours.

Today's sun and 1324 close up

[Crepuscular Ray]

There have been several very pretty CMEs during the day, but none appear to have been Earth directed. The M1 flare from earlier may impact Mars by midweek. Do any of the spacecraft that NASA has around Mars have the capability to detect any effects it might have?

[GeorgeWX]

There have been several very pretty CMEs during the day, but none appear to have been Earth directed. The M1 flare from earlier may impact Mars by midweek. Do any of the spacecraft that NASA has around Mars have the capability to detect any effects it might have?

I know Nasa have a satellite orbiting mars called the reconnaissance orbiter, It might carry instrumentation able to detect the characteristics of the solar wind, I'm not too sure if it does though. I do know there's a vast array of imaging devices on the satellite so pics of aurorae on Mars are possible.

The cme relating to the M1 flare was a huge one, and it perfectly illustrates that flare intensity doesn't correlate with cme density. If this cme was earth directed it would arrive with a powerful punch, and inflict strong geomagnetic storming.

Quick summary of solar activity.

Sunspot number - 102. Solar flux - 156. The drop in sunspot number largely down to several active regions disappearing from earth's view in the last 2 days.

Active region 1324 continues to harbour many small spots, it quietened down a couple of days ago but now looks to be perking up a little bit, only C class activity so far but the chance of low M class flaring exists once again.

The un-numbered active region on the eastern limb mentioned in the last post is now fully in view and has been numbered 1330. Once again this region has been largely quiet over the past couple of days, that could change.

Shortly before the bright M1 flare on 22/10, there is a large filament eruption from the NW quadrant. Most of the solar forecasters believe it is geo-effective and a period of kp4-5 is possible sometime tomorrow.

Todays sun

Edited October 24, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[BornFromTheVoid]

Anybody notice this stuff on spaceweather.com?

CME IMPACT: A coronal mass ejection (CME) struck Earth's magnetic field today, Oct. 24th, at approximately 1800 UT (02:00 pm EDT) setting the stage for a possible geomagnetic storm. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Storm alerts: text, voice.

Update #1: Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the CME impact caused a strong compression of Earth's magnetic field, allowing the solar wind to penetrate all the way down to geosyncronous orbit for a brief period between 19:06 UT and 19:11 UT. Earth-orbiting spacecraft could have been directly exposed to solar wind plasma during that time.

Update #2: Strong ground currents have been detected in Norway.

Auroras down over Scotland.

Can anyone explain what happened in the thing spaceweather.com mentioned? Seems to have come from nowhere?

[Crepuscular Ray]

Yes, I saw that, too. No forewarning of it at all - you'd have got the impression that all the CMEs over the last few days weren't Earth directed. Caught them napping by the look of it.

Edited October 24, 2011 by crepuscular ray

[yamkin]

Kp Index has just reached level 8 which is a scale G4 = SEVERE (THIS IS WHAT IS BEING SHOWN NOW & COULD CHANGE)

Power systems: possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid.

Spacecraft operations: may experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.)

Edited October 24, 2011 by yamkin

[Crepuscular Ray]

What site are you getting KP8 from Yamkin? I can't find any site that gives it as higher than 5 at the moment, but perhaps I'm missing something.

[yamkin]

What site are you getting KP8 from Yamkin? I can't find any site that gives it as higher than 5 at the moment, but perhaps I'm missing something.

I have use this site and others for research http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/index.html

By the way, Kp Index has now reached a very worrying 10 whcih equates to scale G5 - Extreme Level. I'm wondering how long this will last for.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I have use this site and others for research http://www2.nict.go....time/index.html

By the way, Kp Index has now reached a very worrying 10 whcih equates to scale G5 - Extreme Level. I'm wondering how long this will last for.

Where on that page is the Kp index? Can't seem to spot it!

[GeorgeWX]

The most recent planetery kp rating is a 5. I don't know where Yamkin finds the kp8 rating.

That said, in the last 15 minutes magnetometer's have spiked very abruptly indeed, though it's more likely to be only a brief period of severe storming. This single spike alone should be sufficient enough for the next 3 hour kp to be 7+. Next planetery kp update around 1am for anyone interested.

It's not easy judging how far south the aurora might go, we are hitting the sweet spot with 12am UTC not far away, The aurora stretches furthest south at 12am local time. Weather permitting it's worth a look as far south as 53N, maybe even 52N.

The current disruption is related to the filament eruption of 22/10.

I have use this site and others for research http://www2.nict.go....time/index.html

By the way, Kp Index has now reached a very worrying 10 whcih equates to scale G5 - Extreme Level. I'm wondering how long this will last for.

'By the way' Yamkin the kp only goes to 9, how many times on this thread has someone said 'OMG kp10!'. You are looking at the poes activity map aren't you, on that map activity levels 0 to 9 imply kp4 or less, level 10 imply's kp5 or more... It get's to level 10 quite a lot.

[yamkin]

Where on that page is the Kp index? Can't seem to spot it!

Half way down on the left. Here's what it looks like (T degrees K). Kp Index is now hovering at 5 which equates to G1 Minor. Looks like a busy Kp Index tonight!

[GeorgeWX]

ok, this is FAR bigger than anyone had anticipated, the magnetometer has just updated in the last 30 seconds and it's turning into a whopper of a geomagnetic storm.

It looks to me like a deviation of around -150nT. Weather permitting, aurora should be visible UK wide and across northern europe, Overhead for Scotland, NI and North England, no doubt about it. That is, right now. I don't know the length of time this opportunity exists, it won't be very long though.

Best aurora opportunity of 2011.

Half way down on the left. Here's what it looks like (T degrees K). Kp Index is now hovering at 5 which equates to G1 Minor. Looks like a busy Kp Index tonight!

On that table 'K' stands for Kelvin, a measurement of temperature. Nothing to do with the kp index. Edited October 25, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[yamkin]

ok, this is FAR bigger than anyone had anticipated, the magnetometer has just updated in the last 30 seconds and it's turning into a whopper of a geomagnetic storm.

It looks to me like a deviation of around -150nT. Weather permitting, aurora should be visible UK wide and across northern europe, Overhead for Scotland, NI and North England, no doubt about it. That is, right now. I don't know the length of time this opportunity exists, it won't be very long though.

Best aurora opportunity of 2011.

On that table 'K' stands for Kelvin, a measurement of temperature. Nothing to do with the kp index.

Just been told off because i thought the Kp Index was hovering around 5, but it is at 10 whcih equates to G5 Extreme.

[lfcdude]

AuroraWatch UK status:

Red alert: aurora likely

1st time iv seen that... but yeah... its cloudy here lol

[yamkin]

ok, this is FAR bigger than anyone had anticipated, the magnetometer has just updated in the last 30 seconds and it's turning into a whopper of a geomagnetic storm.

It looks to me like a deviation of around -150nT. Weather permitting, aurora should be visible UK wide and across northern europe, Overhead for Scotland, NI and North England, no doubt about it. That is, right now. I don't know the length of time this opportunity exists, it won't be very long though.

Best aurora opportunity of 2011.

On that table 'K' stands for Kelvin, a measurement of temperature. Nothing to do with the kp index.

Yes, you are correct, but because The Planetary Kp-index is not available in real-time, I use the T degrees K as a guide which has proven to work for me. Apologies for not explaining myself beforehand.

The average KP is actually 6.8 and climbing, so we are in a solar storm right now.

Edited October 25, 2011 by yamkin

[GeorgeWX]

Had to go out for a look, from where I am LP from Glasgow turns the skies to the north yukky brown. Normally I drive to a spot not too far away but the current geomagnetic storm is strong enough for aurora to be overhead. Despite a small handful of clear patches dotted around the sky, I couldn't see a thing, just too much cloud here

This is the largest geomagnetic storm of 2011 and possibly one of the largest that will happen in this solar cycle. Most recent planetery kp (22.00-01.00) is a kp7. Current conditions are typical of K9.

I'll be first to say I wasn't expecting this to happen, the filament eruption responsible for this geo-storm was barely earth directed, also the source of the eruption was deep in the NW quarter of the sun, eruptions from the far W region are rarely geo-effective, unless they are very fast. The filament burst of 22/10 just wasn't.

Yes, you are correct, but because The Planetary Kp-index is not available in real-time.

Because the kp index is a measurement based on 3 hourly periods.

I use the T degrees K as a guide which has proven to work for me. Apologies for not explaining myself beforehand.

There is no correlation between the temperature of the solar wind and kp index, none whatsoever.

The average KP is actually 6.8 and climbing, so we are in a solar storm right now.

We are now. The earlier posts you made were inaccurate, unless that is.... you are psychic.

Edited October 25, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[lfcdude]

Well my clouds have cleared.. just see stars... thought i might have a chance if it was a kp9... damn to far bloody south

[GeorgeWX]

This is just crazy.

These are the sort of geomagnetic storms that test our infrastructure.

Definitely the most severe geomagnetic storm since 2005, currently in the running to take the title of the largest geomagnetic storm of the 21st century, that is, one stronger than the halloween 2003 storm, possibly as large as the bastille day event. I just can't believe it myself. Everybody missed it.

Are you bricking it Yamkin? It's a huge storm.

Overhead aurora likely as far south as 52N, possibly further south than that.

For those in the far north there may be moments when the aurora is most visible in the skies to the south.

[lfcdude]

This is just crazy.

These are the sort of geomagnetic storms that test our infrastructure.

Definitely the most severe geomagnetic storm since 2005, currently in the running to take the title of the largest geomagnetic storm of the 21st century, that is, one stronger than the halloween 2003 storm, possibly as large as the bastille day event. I just can't believe it myself. Everybody missed it.

Are you bricking it Yamkin? It's a huge storm.

Overhead aurora likely as far south as 52N, possibly further south than that.

For those in the far north there may be moments when the aurora is most visible in the skies to the south.

if i keep looking to the skys then.. do i have a chance of seaing it down here in wiltshire?

[GeorgeWX]

Well my clouds have cleared.. just see stars... thought i might have a chance if it was a kp9... damn to far bloody south

The kp7 rating is based on the 3 hours from 9pm utc to 12am utc, look at the magnetometer and see the level of activity between these two points, not much happens until around 23.15 utc, then severe storming commences and the measurement is taken at midnight.

If the 3 hr planetery kp measurement was 10pm utc to 1am utc, it would return a kp9, I guarantee it.

So, current conditions are typical of a kp9 storm.

if i keep looking to the skys then.. do i have a chance of seaing it down here in wiltshire?

If you have clear skies then yes you will see activity just look up and north.

[lfcdude]

okie thanks im going to take a walk and see because i just see stars out of my window lol

[GeorgeWX]

Super strong sub-storming, a very mobile aurora in the last 10 minutes.

Still visible UK wide, likely to be visible in the northern horizon as far south as 45N. (europe)

Completely clouded out here for the moment.

okie thanks im going to take a walk and see because i just see stars out of my window lol

Good luck.

[GeorgeWX]

Signs of receding now showing, the last 15 minutes auroral activity is heading north. There continues to be powerful sub-storming which implies the aurora is likely to be bright.

Still visible UK wide and overhead as far south as 53N.

Shocked to see very little coverage of this incredibly strong geo-storm from any of the 'reputable' sources. Maybe they're all out looking at the aurora hence too busy to update their web pages!

[lfcdude]

i can confirm even i this for south was surprised.. as i saw red and yellow in the sky, also saw 4 shooting stars but yeah... iv seen the northern lights