Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[drgl]

So is this cycle still below or there abouts compared to the previous lows of the so called mini ice age? I recall a graph showing it compared to these but can not find anything up to date.

[Radiating Dendrite]

It is predicted to be low.

I do not believe it will be as low as the Maunder ones, but may be comparable to Dalton.

[shuggee]

Considering all forecasts/predictions have been completely and utterly useless since 2007 - reporting such 'guesses' has turned into quite an entertaining sport, and should certainly be treated with caution.

[Gray-Wolf]

Considering all forecasts/predictions have been completely and utterly useless since 2007 - reporting such 'guesses' has turned into quite an entertaining sport, and should certainly be treated with caution.

The more we 'understand' , the less we seem to 'know'?

[GeorgeWX]

Perhaps this graph may provide some clarity on the progress of 'sc24' (the current solar cycle) compared to the 3 previous solar cycles.... There is clearly a drop in activity between sc22/sc23 and again sc23/sc24.

But just how much of a drop in activity is there exactly??? Well sc24 is showing characteristics that appear to be very similar to sc10 (the solar cycle between 1855 and 1867 ), sc12 (1878-1890) and sc14 (1902-1913).

Whilst the mid to late 19th century solar cycles were rather quiet compared to modern cycles, they are very much 'middle of the field' between the maunder minimum period and the recent (last 60 years) modern maximum period. Based on the data it seems sc24 will be 70-80% more active than 'sc5' - the earliest dalton minimum cycle (1798-1811) and 20-25% more active than 'sc6' - the late dalton cycle (1811-1823)

Just because the high level of solar activity that we have seen over the last half century appears to be tapering off, it doesn't automatically mean that the next maunder is impending. It's worth knowing that It was during the 'comparatively quiet' sc10 that the famous carrington super flare occured.

Edited August 11, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[picog]

I'm confused, I thought not so long back we were being told the sun was going very quiet?? Now it is ramping up to a peak in 2013? I seem to recall graphs plotting the current activity matching the last very quiet spell, is that no longer the case?

It has to peak at some time. However to date, all the projections about the sun's activity in this cycle have been wrong.

[jonboy]

The 'Laymans Count' website has called its 2nd spotless day. F10 flux level below 90. It appears we have a burst of activity then everything goes quiet again.

[Nights King]

The Laymans count has 4 days spotless now!

Looking very similar to sc 5.

[karyo]

A sunspot is now appearing : www.spaceweather.com however, it was nice to see the sun spotless again. :-)

[Nights King]

There may be one forming but its only a spec and won't make it onto the laymans count today at least so thats 5 days spotless.

[karyo]

That's good!

[Crepuscular Ray]

Sorry guys, it looks a little bigger than one of the layman's count's "It's not a spot whatever the experts say".

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/hmi_igr/1024/latest.html

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Sorry guys, it looks a little bigger than one of the layman's count's "It's not a spot whatever the experts say".

http://sohowww.nasco...024/latest.html

Yesterday, the guy who does the Laymans count said he expected the spotless run to end, and today's comment is "A new region 1271 has ended the current spotless run." new

From what I see, the Layman's is only trying to apply the same rules as Wolf did, so the playing field is level. Similar to headlines of "More Tropical storms than ever before" even though many of the "fish" storms would have gone unnoticed in years gone by, region 1271 has ended the current spotless run."

The 'Laymans Count' website has called its 2nd spotless day. F10 flux level below 90. It appears we have a burst of activity then everything goes quiet again.

And along the same lines, the sun was spotless on ALL measures for 2 days, in the middle of a cycle, that's pretty rare

[Radiating Dendrite]

Does anyone know what causes these variations in cycle strength?

[yamkin]

A big new sunspot is emerging

EMERGING SUNSPOT: A big new sunspot is emerging over the sun’s northeastern limb. AR1271 has at least four dark cores and it is crackling with small flares. The sunspot’s entrance was captured in this 24-hour movie from the Solar Dynamics Observatory. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of M-class solar flares during the next 24 hours. Because of its location near the sun’s limb, AR1271 does not yet pose a threat for Earth-directed eruptions. This could change in the days ahead, however, as the sunspot turns to face our planet. Readers with solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor developments.

Edited August 16, 2011 by yamkin

[Crepuscular Ray]

^ ^ ^ ^

From http://www.spaceweather.com, where the movie is visible.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Does anyone know what causes these variations in cycle strength?

Lots of theories, some more plausible than others

Have a look here http://www.landscheidt.info/ for one theory that sounds OK by me

[A Winter's Tale]

A big new sunspot is emerging

EMERGING SUNSPOT: A big new sunspot is emerging over the sun’s northeastern limb. AR1271 has at least four dark cores and it is crackling with small flares. The sunspot’s entrance was captured in this 24-hour movie from the Solar Dynamics Observatory. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of M-class solar flares during the next 24 hours. Because of its location near the sun’s limb, AR1271 does not yet pose a threat for Earth-directed eruptions. This could change in the days ahead, however, as the sunspot turns to face our planet. Readers with solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor developments.

Eh what does this mean? Hopefully nothing serious.

[Crepuscular Ray]

Eh what does this mean? Hopefully nothing serious.

Nothing serious at all; it's been doing it for billions of years. If there are solar flares or coronal mass ejections from it it might cause interesting effects such as aurorae. There have been far bigger spots within the last decade, so it's not anything to worry about.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Nothing serious at all; it's been doing it for billions of years. If there are solar flares or coronal mass ejections from it it might cause interesting effects such as aurorae. There have been far bigger spots within the last decade, so it's not anything to worry about.

Hang on, I can tell you are not a Journalist. Their answer would be "BE VERY SCARED".

Good measured response that.

[shuggee]

Wow:

http://t.co/nqGEtBb

(Nat Geo site)

[Crepuscular Ray]

Wow:

http://t.co/nqGEtBb

(Nat Geo site)

Wow!

Something of the cause, possibly, although not about that particular event:

http://science.nasa....18aug_cmemovie/

Edited August 18, 2011 by crepuscular ray

[snoangel]

Sun storms 'could be more disruptive within decades'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14580995

[Radiating Dendrite]

I am confused.

Why would there be more radiation etc when the sun is quieter? It seems like the wrong way round?

[Methuselah]

I am confused.

Why would there be more radiation etc when the sun is quieter? It seems like the wrong way round?

I really don't think that many of the so-called 'Solar experts' even know what's going on, RD?? IMO, it's a little like quantum theory: anyone who claims to understand it, quite clearly doesn't...