October CET

[WindWatcher]

10.6 for me please.

Thanks

[reef]

10.8°C.

[medway frezee]

( hi all have been away from here for the summer !!!) I reckon, looking at some of the longer range forecast, a cooler and more settled october (maybe not at the start with showers ), with a CET of around 10.5c. Like i said the reason for this is that it looks like a low will push into the north sea , leaving us on the west side of the low, bringing cooler northely dirction winds, possibly even easterly winds by mid october ??

any advances on that??

[SMU]

( hi all have been away from here for the summer !!!) I reckon, looking at some of the longer range forecast, a cooler and more settled october (maybe not at the start with showers ), with a CET of around 10.5c. Like i said the reason for this is that it looks like a low will push into the north sea , leaving us on the west side of the low, bringing cooler northely dirction winds, possibly even easterly winds by mid october ??

any advances on that??

10.2C

SMURF

[wellington boot]

It's gonna be 10.8. It's a fact

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

The ensembles and SSTs look good for a not-excessively mild October with no long draw southerlies.

Sew-saw back to average; 10.8C, slightly above average. At about 6 degrees cooler than this September it should come as quite a shock!

Ed: wellington boot - snap!

Edited September 29, 2006 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Convection currents]

10.1C

[Megamoonflake]

12.3C

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

A lower than September above average picture for me, so i'm going to punt at 11.4oC. Which, compared to last year, would be a cooler October.

[Red Raven]

i'm going for 10.1 - no science invloved just a pure guess

[su rui ke]

12.5C for the very good reason that no-one seems to have taken that yet.

[parmenides3]

12.5C for the very good reason that no-one seems to have taken that yet.

Damn! Too slow again!

SST currently 15-17C. SSTA currently +1.5. Lots of action from the SW for weeks now. Ground still warm, moisture levels low. Conclusion: 11.8C

:)P

Edited September 30, 2006 by parmenides3

[summer blizzard]

Tinybill: 6.4C

Joneseye: 7.5C

Optimus Prime: 9.3C

Snow-Man2006: 9.5C

Hiya: 9.8C

Beng: 9.9C

Shuggee: 10C

Convection currents: 10.1C

Red Raven: 10.1C

Steve Murr: 10.2C

Stormchaser1: 10.3C

Summer Blizzard: 10.4C

Senior Ridge: 10.5C

Medway Frezee: 10.5C

WindWatcher: 10.6C

Intrepid: 10.7C

Snowmaiden: 10.75C

Reef: 10.8C

Wellington Boot: 10.8C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 10.8C

Roger J Smith: 10.9C

Viking141: 11C

Lesta_snow: 11C

Tesaro: 11.1C

Anti-Mild: 11.2C

ChrisL: 11.4C

Kold weather: 11.5C

Snowyowl9: 11.7C

Stricklands: 11.7C

Parmenides3: 11.8C

Rollo: 11.9C

Somerset Squall: 12C

Bham Chris: 12.1C

Robbie: 12.1C

Bottesford: 12.2C

Megamoonflake: 12.3C

Windswept: 12.4C

Timmy H: 12.4C

Suruike: 12.5C

Tugmistress: 12.6C

Snowprincess: 12.7C

Scorcher: 12.7C

West is Best: 13.4C

Mike W: 13.6C

[Dawlish]

11.7 for me. Warmer than average, not surprisingly - there's nothing on the gfs to suggest a cold first half and guessing warm, every month this year, gives a success rate of 6/9, 66% so far. 7/9, 78%, by Manley.

Paul

PS Still time to back your hunch on my bets thread. Good odds for both warmers and coolers :lol:

Edited September 30, 2006 by Dawlish

[Snowyowl9]

11.7 for me. Warmer than average, not surprisingly - there's nothing on the gfs to suggest a cold first half and guessing warm, every month this year, gives a success rate of 6/9, 66% so far. 7/9, 78%, by Manley.

Paul

PS Still time to back your hunch on my bets thread. Good odds for both warmers and coolers :lol:

It was 11.7c in october 1996.

Warmer octobers colder winters(now where did that saying come from )

Last october was 13.1c which was caused from all those southerlies much like this september,but we`ll see more westerlies NW.... lose the southerlies, veering all directions next month.

[tinybill]

It was 11.7c in october 1996.

Warmer octobers colder winters(now where did that saying come from )

Last october was 13.1c which was caused from all those southerlies much like this september,but we`ll see more westerlies NW.... lose the southerlies, veering all directions next month.

as you say snowyowl9 the gfs is deff pointing to a very damp oct at the moment :lol:

[Glacier Point]

September and Octobers are very often matching pairs so without hesitation, it's got to be an above average month, but how much - that is the question.

The three key influences for me this month are the Artic Oscillation (AO), the developing El Nino and SSTAs in the northern Atlantic.

The AO is statistically more likely to be neutral-positive for October. 77% of all Octobers since 1950 were in this state whilst the westerly phase QBO makes this even more probable with 82% of analogue months following this course. Of late there have been some height anomalies at upper levels suggesting a -ve phase AO:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...hgt.ao.cdas.gif

although faced with the QBO, and plenty of tropical depressions, I fancy this to be forced back positive as October progresses. This leaves the door open for SSTs and El Nino to really assert their influence within the context of peak tropical depression activity.

The northern Atlantic continues to favour a western ridge-eastern trough scenario with downstream ridging over central and western Europe:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.seasonal.gif

We now start to see quite a reasonable sample of Sep - Oct - Nov analogues for a developing weak El Nino. These favour a striking anomaly for low pressure either to the west or directly over the UK. With the SSTA, I would favour this to be slightly further west giving rise to a strongly SW or even S'ly draw.

The composite anomaly for temperatures suggests only 0.5 above the 1968 - 1996 average:

although I would favour a value much above this to reflect the SSTA and recent monthly returns with a neutral or +ve AO (i.e. June, July and September). This makes a record breaking October very much a possibility, especially with the night time minima likely to be quite high from a SW'ly flow off the Atlantic.

We are also following 1969 very closely at present which recorded a very warm October.

My judgement for October 2006,12.9 C.

GP

Edited September 30, 2006 by Glacier Point

[Dawlish]

September and Octobers are very often matching pairs so without hesitation, it's got to be an above average month, but how much - that is the question.

The three key influences for me this month are the Artic Oscillation (AO), the developing El Nino and SSTAs in the northern Atlantic.

The AO is statistically more likely to be neutral-positive for October. 77% of all Octobers since 1950 were in this state whilst the westerly phase QBO makes this even more probable with 82% of analogue months following this course. Of late there have been some height anomalies at upper levels suggesting a -ve phase AO:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...hgt.ao.cdas.gif

although faced with the QBO, and plenty of tropical depressions, I fancy this to be forced back positive as October progresses. This leaves the door open for SSTs and El Nino to really assert their influence within the context of peak tropical depression activity.

The northern Atlantic continues to favour a western ridge-eastern trough scenario with downstream ridging over central and western Europe:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.seasonal.gif

We now start to see quite a reasonable sample of Sep - Oct - Nov analogues for a developing weak El Nino. These favour a striking anomaly for low pressure either to the west or directly over the UK. With the SSTA, I would favour this to be slightly further west giving rise to a strongly SW or even S'ly draw.

The composite anomaly for temperatures suggests only 0.5 above the 1968 - 1996 average:

although I would favour a value much above this to reflect the SSTA and recent monthly returns with a neutral or +ve AO (i.e. June, July and September). This makes a record breaking October very much a possibility, especially with the night time minima likely to be quite high from a SW'ly flow off the Atlantic.

We are also following 1969 very closely at present which recorded a very warm October.

My judgement for October 2006,12.9 C.

GP

Gawd GP, we only wanted a CET value!

Paul

PS Nicely argued!

[SMU]

September and Octobers are very often matching pairs so without hesitation, it's got to be an above average month, but how much - that is the question.

The three key influences for me this month are the Artic Oscillation (AO), the developing El Nino and SSTAs in the northern Atlantic.

The AO is statistically more likely to be neutral-positive for October. 77% of all Octobers since 1950 were in this state whilst the westerly phase QBO makes this even more probable with 82% of analogue months following this course. Of late there have been some height anomalies at upper levels suggesting a -ve phase AO:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...hgt.ao.cdas.gif

although faced with the QBO, and plenty of tropical depressions, I fancy this to be forced back positive as October progresses. This leaves the door open for SSTs and El Nino to really assert their influence within the context of peak tropical depression activity.

The northern Atlantic continues to favour a western ridge-eastern trough scenario with downstream ridging over central and western Europe:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.seasonal.gif

We now start to see quite a reasonable sample of Sep - Oct - Nov analogues for a developing weak El Nino. These favour a striking anomaly for low pressure either to the west or directly over the UK. With the SSTA, I would favour this to be slightly further west giving rise to a strongly SW or even S'ly draw.

The composite anomaly for temperatures suggests only 0.5 above the 1968 - 1996 average:

although I would favour a value much above this to reflect the SSTA and recent monthly returns with a neutral or +ve AO (i.e. June, July and September). This makes a record breaking October very much a possibility, especially with the night time minima likely to be quite high from a SW'ly flow off the Atlantic.

We are also following 1969 very closely at present which recorded a very warm October.

My judgement for October 2006,12.9 C.

GP

Hi Matey- Good post Id certainly take a 1969/70 Winter- Just a quickie-

How are we following the 69 Pattern- obviously the 69 Sept CET was 13.9 so thats almost 3 degrees below the one observed???

Are you comparing start for Start Octobers - 500Mb Patterns or Teleconnection indices Patterns??

S

[The Abominable Snowman]

I'm going to go for 11.0ºc. Looks to me like we could see some cold nights initially, but then maybe something pretty unsettled and a bit warmer. Certainly no repeat of last years extreme though i think.

[tinybill]

Hi Matey- Good post Id certainly take a 1969/70 Winter- Just a quickie-

How are we following the 69 Pattern- obviously the 69 Sept CET was 13.9 so thats almost 3 degrees below the one observed???

Are you comparing start for Start Octobers - 500Mb Patterns or Teleconnection indices Patterns??

S

http://www.btinternet.com/~highdown/

on here i see they have dropped their temp now for oct to 9.4

[Glacier Point]

Hi Matey- Good post Id certainly take a 1969/70 Winter- Just a quickie-

How are we following the 69 Pattern- obviously the 69 Sept CET was 13.9 so thats almost 3 degrees below the one observed???

Are you comparing start for Start Octobers - 500Mb Patterns or Teleconnection indices Patterns??

S

I'm taking my comparison spread over June to Oct so even whilst 1969's September was reasonably warm of its time, the following October was way above - this is the 'similar course' folowing the summer of '69. The prime factors of similarity for me are the current AO, QBO, PDO and developing weak El Nino signature.

The summer reanalysis is interesting in terms of its fit to 1969 pattern in terms of 500s anomalies, SSTA and temp (allowing for elevated global values). I'll hopefully verify my summer forecast which will carry these comparisons, but as ever, no single analogue will ever be the same but it's particularly useful in identifying possible anomaly patterns from at least the QBO / AO / El Nino combo within the context of a similar SSTA profile.

[SMU]

I'm taking my comparison spread over June to Oct so even whilst 1969's September was reasonably warm of its time, the following October was way above - this is the 'similar course' folowing the summer of '69. The prime factors of similarity for me are the current AO, QBO, PDO and developing weak El Nino signature.

The summer reanalysis is interesting in terms of its fit to 1969 pattern in terms of 500s anomalies, SSTA and temp (allowing for elevated global values). I'll hopefully verify my summer forecast which will carry these comparisons, but as ever, no single analogue will ever be the same but it's particularly useful in identifying possible anomaly patterns from at least the QBO / AO / El Nino combo within the context of a similar SSTA profile.

Cheers mate....

Lets hope the 69 Analogue holds firm then..........

S

[Dawlish]

I'm taking my comparison spread over June to Oct so even whilst 1969's September was reasonably warm of its time, the following October was way above - this is the 'similar course' folowing the summer of '69. The prime factors of similarity for me are the current AO, QBO, PDO and developing weak El Nino signature.

The summer reanalysis is interesting in terms of its fit to 1969 pattern in terms of 500s anomalies, SSTA and temp (allowing for elevated global values). I'll hopefully verify my summer forecast which will carry these comparisons, but as ever, no single analogue will ever be the same but it's particularly useful in identifying possible anomaly patterns from at least the QBO / AO / El Nino combo within the context of a similar SSTA profile.

If I may just add.....1969 was before the UK warming trend and the likelihood of the same synoptics, producing the same, cold, winter is seriously reduced.

Paul

[Snowly does it]

If I may just add.....1969 was before the UK warming trend and the likelihood of the same synoptics, producing the same, cold, winter is seriously reduced.

Paul

Not really, if the pattern runs the same, the pattern runs the same. There can be no analogue at all otherwise.

Either analogues have value or they do not, they can't have some value for part of the year and not for others.