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Was a beautiful almost spring like weekend..wall to wall sunshine and temps of +8c..will stay the same all week with sunshine and temps above freezing...looking at the charts it has early spring written all over it...no cold shown in the next 10 days.

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Best time lapse I've seen so far.    

February 15th Storm   Hello All,   Well its been quite a few weeks lately, we've had huge amounts of snow here in New Brunswick, the most I've seen in the 8 years I have lived here. I think in les

I wish our downgrades were like that

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Was a beautiful almost spring like weekend..wall to wall sunshine and temps of +8c..will stay the same all week with sunshine and temps above freezing...looking at the charts it has early spring written all over it...no cold shown in the next 10 days.

Balzac Billy was right....same here. Been amazing!

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Models converging on major snowstorm scenario for New England on Friday night into Saturday, as weak lows from plains states and southeast come together on Friday near New Jersey coast (nothing ever happens there in weather, right?) forming 980 mb low south of Long Island to south of Nova Scotia by Saturday night. QPF with this system in the 2-4 inch range and much of that could be snow north of a line from central Long Island to south of Boston MA, rain-snow mix further southeast and all rain outer capes and over the ocean. Very strong NE winds and high perigeean new moon tides in the stormy mix as well.

I will provide regular updates including forecast info and actual amounts. The RGEM handles these events as well as the other models and would suggest linking to that starting with the 00z run tonight available around 0330z for the latest. Link is in the models and analysis section at

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca

Factoring into this storm potential is a very cold arctic high drifting east from Manitoba into northern Ontario and central Quebec with temperatures near -20 C, this will feed a shallow layer of -10 C air down into the storm zone by Friday morning.

New York City may only see 10-20 cm snow as the storm does not explode until most of the precip shield has passed NJ and NYC but Boston could see 50-75 cm and further inland in eastern MA there could be 75-100 cm amounts locally. The 50 cm contour then runs up through Maine into New Brunswick Canada while Nova Scotia may see more of a mix.

Hurricane force wind gusts may develop by Saturday in southeast MA including near Boston and over Cape Cod and the offshore islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard, even into Rhode Island.

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Love reading your posts Roger.

I have family in Nova Scotia, Calgary, Vancouver and the Yukon. It's great to read forecasts and reports from North America. I usually do a winter scan of the webcams to see how things are progressing.

Much appreciate your input.

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My brother lives just north west of Boston so looks like they could get hammered in the next few days. Feel a bit silly now having EMAILED him a couple of weeks ago about the 4 inches of snow we got!

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Hi, I have family and friends in Toronto and Boston who tell me the storm from Friday is the biggest in five years and its all over the radio and tv with preparation under way.

I dont think Toronto will get hit like the Boston...20-25cm in Toronto which isn't that unusual for this time of year but Boston will get 60-70cm which is huge..seems like a short lived cold snap there though
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post-4238-0-42232000-1360263633_thumb.jp

SNOWFALL (inches) Feb 8-9 2013, and expected maximum wind gusts over ocean and Long Island Sound ... heaviest amounts on east-facing upslope areas in eastern MA and western CT (Berkshires) as well as Mount Tolland area of northeast CT ... contours continue off map to northeast roughly parallel to coast into central Maine and New Brunswick

This is my forecast for southern New England, in inches ( x 2.5 for cm) ... the southeast portions of MA will see mixed precip at the height of the storm and would get 20-30 inches of snow if not for that changeover. Winds of 50-80 mph are likely in that region, and about 30-50 mph in the heavy snow zone. It will not drift too much because of the heavy fall rate, and winds will then subside once the storm is done, so it should be a reasonably level two to four feet of snow at the end of the event.

Toronto may get 15-25 cm snow but further west there may be 20-40 cm amounts near the west end of Lake Ontario. Compared to the past few winters this is a fairly big event but in historical terms, for Toronto, about what might be expected as the heaviest fall each winter month. Daily record snowfalls in Toronto are generally in the 30-50 cm range (same for Boston).

I think the sun just came out here, must investigate this extremely rare phenomenon.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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My Dad's travelling to New York tomorrow due to arrive at 2pm New York time, hopefully gets there before the worst of the snow comes! Apparently going to be a rain to snow event for NYC turning to snow as the day goes on.

I'd love to be in Boston though 24 inches sounds incomprehensible in one event!

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Hope he gets in okay, this will be an airport-closing storm for sure and they tend to close a bit early to prevent later disruptions of the start-up phase. If he has any opportunity to get on an earlier flight that might be good, because the chances of this storm starting as rain or sleet are diminishing somewhat for NYC on latest guidance and when it does start it will be very heavy (thinking he could maybe just get into the airport then face a nasty ride into mid-town). In the longer term we are keeping an eye on the possibility that most of this very heavy snowfall will melt rapidly in about a week as the pattern begins to warm.

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Those amounts are nothing compared with what the NAM model was predicting:

Posted Image

Literally Day after Tomorrow level snow storm Posted Image Does seem to be the predictions keep being pushed up and up.

This does have the hallmarks of being a truly devastating storm, but thankfully at least the message of how bad its going to be has gotten out to everyone, so people are as prepared as they can be. Although how exactly do you prepare to have so much snow you cant physically leave you house without climbing out a window?

Edited by cowdog
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We are expecting some of this here, though looks like we escape the worse this time maybe 15-20cm max Saturday Evening/night before turning to freezing rain/rain on Sunday then back to snow again as the system departs, a relatively minor event by St Johns standards, further West on the island looks like all snow so should be looking at higher totals there.

Edited by glosteroldboy
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