Derbyshire_snow

North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

4,428 posts in this topic

Some early snow acorss north east

US colarado on snow alert with upto 2 feet on the tops!!!!

From accuweather:

SNOW-MAN2006

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The Northern Midwest was pretty chilly last week. I was in Minneapolis, and the temperature on Tuesday maxed at 50oF (about 11oC), which is about 15oF+ below average. There was also a ground frost on Wednesday morning, and I believe that air frosts have been recorded in Northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Northwest Michigan. Northern New England also recorded the first air frosts recently.

As for snow, the mountains in the North West, Montana, and parts of western North Dakota have already recroded falls. This is not particularly unusual, but it's always nice to see on the map if you're a snow-lover! What is more unusual is the outbreak of tornadoes associated with an active cold front yesterday. Normally September is a quiet month for such outbreaks, with most tornadoes resulting from Tropical depressions and hurricanes making landfall. November is more commonly associated with such tornadoes with cold fronts.

I'm hoping for an interesting winter!

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Several records have been broken today for high temperatures. Parts of Kansas recorded temperatures in the high nineties, about 36oC today (Tuesday).

As for Chicago, we had an almighty severe thunderstorm last night. A storm passed over at about 1pm, and lightning and thunder continued to rumble around through the afternoon. Then, at about 8Pm, the storms gathered strength and we were treated to about three hours of constant lightning and very loud thunder. At about 10pm we lost power and they had to give us glowsticks to find our way to the rooms!

It looks like temperatures will be returning to normal later this week. A cold front is forecast to come from the Northwest through tomorrow giving a high of around 67oF (20oC) in Chicago, down from around 82oF today.

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The cold front duly arrived today.

Last night, it was rather humid and quite sultry. I was able to wear shorts when I went outside. This morning was also quite warm, with temperatures of about 22oC. It was one of those days where the maximum was set in the morning; a few rumbles of thunder heralded the arrival of the cold front and after lunch it was actually rather cold. It looks like tomorrow's maximum will be about 60oF whic I guess is about 15 or 16oC. I love the active cold fronts here!

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From one extreme to the other! Just shows what a continental climate can be like. Take a look at some of these charts for next week:

500hPA:

post-1957-1160174159_thumb.png

850:

post-1957-1160174184_thumb.png

Thickness:

post-1957-1160174209.png

Earlier this week, some of the areas under the -10 isotherm were basking in temperatures in the 30s!

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Some pretty good agreement in the Ensembles for the upcoming cold-shot.

Firstly Minneapolis:

post-1957-1160242340.gif

Then Chicago feels the cold. Perhaps some early snow for the windy city?

post-1957-1160242369_thumb.png

The really cold air doesn't quite make it East to New York, but I think that in the mountains of Pennsylvania and upstate New York, as well as perhaps lower lying areas like Buffalo and Syracuse, there will be some very parky weather:

post-1957-1160242436_thumb.png

Edited by WhiteFox

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I'm surprised the US Meteorologist only mentions 'snow flurries' for the Chicago area. Surely if these arctic winds sweep down across the Great lakes that would produce some severe heavy snowfalls due to the sheer warmth of the Great Lakes at this time of year? Lake effect snow at it's most severe I would've thought?

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I'm surprised the US Meteorologist only mentions 'snow flurries' for the Chicago area. Surely if these arctic winds sweep down across the Great lakes that would produce some severe heavy snowfalls due to the sheer warmth of the Great Lakes at this time of year? Lake effect snow at it's most severe I would've thought?

That's what i was thinking it would probably end up with them having some heavy falls but with the ground temps being so warm i doubt much will stick next to the lakes.

Edited by Derbyshire_snow

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With the winds coming in from a NW direction, the likely side of lake effect will be east of Lake Michigan into Michigan itself. This will have no impact on Chicago, therefore only being affected by general showers

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This is quite a strong arctic outbreak for the first half of October, but as a result, will be tangling with lake water temperatures that are still quite high, 13 to 17 C on the average from southern Manitoba to the Great Lakes. This tends to create squalls of all types of precip when air mass with dew point of -5 to -8 C moves over such warm waters, typically you see mostly rain at lowest elevations near the lakes, ice pellets further inland and snow on the higher ground in lower and upper Michigan and Ontario. You also can expect a fair amount of thunder and lightning in these squall bands, and the odd waterspout. With so many smaller lakes in Minnesota and Wisconsin, the air mass tends to get clogged up with low-level stratus and light flurries even if it stays clear further west so a place like Chicago would probably see mostly cloudy skies in the cold air, some clearing overnight, and I'd be expecting lows of 27-29 F in that area, but 18-20 F possibly in rural areas further west and northwest.

The fun begins late tomorrow when the arctic air arrives over the large Manitoba lakes and begins to create snow squalls around Winnipeg but as for the Great Lakes, only upper Michigan and Wisconsin get into cold enough air on Wednesday, it takes until Thursday for Michigan and Ontario, NY and PA to get into the colder air mass. Winds will be quite strong with this event, 30-40 mph generally and some gusts to 50 mph.

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This is quite a strong arctic outbreak for the first half of October, but as a result, will be tangling with lake water temperatures that are still quite high, 13 to 17 C on the average from southern Manitoba to the Great Lakes. This tends to create squalls of all types of precip when air mass with dew point of -5 to -8 C moves over such warm waters, typically you see mostly rain at lowest elevations near the lakes, ice pellets further inland and snow on the higher ground in lower and upper Michigan and Ontario. You also can expect a fair amount of thunder and lightning in these squall bands, and the odd waterspout. With so many smaller lakes in Minnesota and Wisconsin, the air mass tends to get clogged up with low-level stratus and light flurries even if it stays clear further west so a place like Chicago would probably see mostly cloudy skies in the cold air, some clearing overnight, and I'd be expecting lows of 27-29 F in that area, but 18-20 F possibly in rural areas further west and northwest.

The fun begins late tomorrow when the arctic air arrives over the large Manitoba lakes and begins to create snow squalls around Winnipeg but as for the Great Lakes, only upper Michigan and Wisconsin get into cold enough air on Wednesday, it takes until Thursday for Michigan and Ontario, NY and PA to get into the colder air mass. Winds will be quite strong with this event, 30-40 mph generally and some gusts to 50 mph.

well thats strange winnipeg is forecast 15c tuesday 13 wednesday 14c thursday and 16c friday surely that is wrong and 24c saturday surley something has got to be wrong there 24c in mid october i can't see that somehow and 16c in churchill 8)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/north_america/#no_url

Edited by Derbyshire_snow

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As for Lake-Effect snow, Chicago is not best placed for such events. Sitting on the East side of Lake Michigan, and prevailing winds are from the West, so winds need to be NEly to Ely cause lake effect snow. Most of the 38 inch annual snowfall in Chicago comes from frontal snow. Places like Northern Indiana and Michigan are much more susceptible to lake-effect snow.

well thats strange winnipeg is forecast 15c tuesday 13 wednesday 14c thursday and 16c friday surely that is wrong and 24c saturday surley something has got to be wrong there 24c in mid october i can't see that somehow and 16c in churchill 8)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/north_america/#no_url

I'd say that this site has a more realistic forecast.

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Dont also forget - for places like New York and Chicago, Conneticut etc...

Snow flurries to them is 1foot of snow or more 8)

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Those forecasts for Winnipeg need some serious revision. Today it will be about 14 C before the front arrives, which will be about 4 pm local time. Then it will drop to about -4 C by tomorrow morning and perhaps make it back to +5 C on Wednesday. Thursday it will also be cold, about 8 C tops. After that, however, it warms up quickly. The figure of 24 C on the weekend, not out of the question, temperatures do reach that range in a warm southwest flow at this time of year. As for Churchill on Hudson Bay, they are already into the arctic air and looking at a blizzard developing later today. The arctic air is currently (07z) about halfway through Manitoba, and it's -4 C and snowing at Lynn Lake in northwestern Manitoba, NW wind gusting to 75 km/hr, wind chill -18.

Hey, it's nice to know there is still arctic air moving south somewhere in this hemisphere, right?

People in Chicago will know this is coming their way, but it's going to be quite a shock to the system, since today and even tomorrow morning it will be about 65-70 F then this front comes through and it will drop to about 35-40 F in a matter of two or three hours. Not much severe weather potential until the front gets further east into Ohio and the mid-Atlantic states Thursday morning.

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Snow Falling with Thundersnow near Buffalo (NY) Already some places reporting an accumalation with more lake effect snow for tonight. Could be record breaking as the earliest heavy snowfall for the area. Currently Lake temps at 62f with 1200-1500 Cape Available. Could also be problems as Trees in full leaf etc

Paul Sherman

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I'm staying in Buffalo on Sunday night. Temperatures are supposed to rise a bit by then, but with enough snow there should still be some lying.

Incidentally, I saw on TWC today that Houghton, Michigan, averages 218 inches of snow per year. Not bad for a low lying area! So, any die-hard snow lovers know where to go...

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