April CET

[Richard Lake]

last 3 months, 4.66, 4.08, 4.52 according to n-w tracker.

so am going for a 7 degree CET value of: 7.2

[Bottesford]

I'm happy to have below average months- so long as they keep clear of May-September! Outside of then it can be cold.

[Scribbler]

(ps, the last 3 months have set us up for a possible shot at a sub-10c year if April can also be below average, shows how desperate things have become!)

This is part of this thread – so please don’t move this post!

I am currently deciphering and writing up old diaries that my mother (who was one of the original Met Office WAAF girls during the war) kept. The earliest diary is 1935 and they make for fascinating reading – but that’s another story!

To the point………… My ancient mother (born in 1923) still has an extremely good long-term memory and she said yesterday that this year reminds her of when she was at school and soon after she had started work – when she seemed to remember spring being very late.

I checked back through the records last night and found 1936 and 1940 – two years that seemed to match her thoughts. Those years started:

1936 – 3.7, 2.6 and 7.2 followed by 6.3 for April

1940 – minus 1.4, 2.6 and 6.0 followed by 8.7 for April

The final year CETs were 9.32 and 9.05.

What I am therefore implying is that a cold first few months followed by a “less than” average April tends to lead to a below average year.

Perhaps that is a logical deduction but it doesn't seem to hold true if April is warmer than average.

No doubt the likes of Mr Data will now come up with a string of evidence to refute my claim! Mind you I haven't yet gone through all the last century with a fine toothcomb!

[reef]

This is part of this thread – so please don’t move this post! .....

This is actually a good point. When comparing the mean CET values from the 1988-2005 period to the 1971-2000 values theres an interesting occurance when looking at the warmup in individial months.

The months with the largest warming trend are:

January - 4.2°C (1971-2000) to 4.9°C (1988-2005) - a difference of +0.7°C

February - 4.2°C (1971-2000) to 5.1°C (1988-2005) - a difference of +0.9°C

March - 6.3°C (1971-2000) to 7.1°C (1988-2005) - a difference of +0.8°C

So far we are approximately -0.56°C on the January - March period, so Id say we have a good chance at going below 10°C for the annual CET.

It should be remembered however, changearounds do occur. 2005 was a prime example on the other end of the spectrum: with a mild start to November it was looking like being one of the mildest Autumns on record, with a high probability of the highest annual CET on record aswell. However a cold end to November and equally cold December meant that the final yearly value although well above average was a good way below the record.

[SMU]

Another below average month for me-

~ 6.4C

A cold first half / warmer second........ similar to March-

S

[Foggy]

I'm (guessing) a very average 8.2, with some warmth later in the month

[Weather-history]

Any bets that the first half of April could be colder than the second half of March? There is a chance.

[reef]

Any bets that the first half of April could be colder than the second half of March? There is a chance.

Looking at the models Id say it isnt out of the question. If we get caught in the pattern of a northerly, with the high retrogressing back towards Greenland a few days later and restarting the cycle I would say theres a high chance.

Going by the 6z the first 7 days of April come out at 3°C below average in my location, highly unusual in recent years. Ive never recorded an April less than 1°C above average since I began recording.

[summer blizzard]

drfeelgood - 6.4C

Steve Murr - 6.4C

Sunshine 6.5C

Shuggee - 6.7C

Rikki - 7.2C

Helly Hanson - 7.3C

Joneseye - 7.6C

Terminal Moraine - 7.7C

Evo - 7.7C

ChrisL - 7.8C

Mr Data - 7.9C

Glacier Point - 7.9C

SNOW-MAN2006 - 8C

Peter Tattum - 8.1C

Stephen Prudence - 8.1C

Foggy - 8.2C

Rollo - 8.3C

Optimus Prime - 8.4C

Scribbler - 8.4C

Londonsnow - 8.5C

bartlett_hi - 8.6C

Blast from the past - 8.7C

Reef - 8.8C

Snowmaiden - 8.9C

Kold Weather - 8.9C

SteveB - 8.9C

Bottesford - 9C

The PIT - 9C

Summer Blizzard - 9.3

phil n.warks - 9.6C

button-wales - 9.9C

Summer of 95 - 10.1C

Rodger J Smith - 10.2C

[SNOW-MAN2006]

if some people are having trouble deciding what will happen i will post my forecast for april on my topic spring forecasts along with april thoughts

[Optimus Prime]

According to the latest run the first half of April would come out with a CET off only 4.98c! That's 3.12c below average and would be bordering record low levels for the first half of April

For Scotland it would be an average off at just 3.1c which is 2.4c below average.

[Metomania]

I'll join in this game. It is only a game! It's hard enough trying to work out the synoptics 5 days from now, nevermind the whole month in terms of the final temperature. But it's fun!

I think the April CET will be 9.1C (1.2C above the 1971-2000 average)

Rodger J Smith - 10.2C

SB - any possibility or removing the - in front of the figures? It makes it look like below zero. I know no-one thinks April will be an ice month but it leaves poor old me confused!

[acbrixton]

This is part of this thread – so please don’t move this post!

No doubt the likes of Mr Data will now come up with a string of evidence to refute my claim! Mind you I haven't yet gone through all the last century with a fine toothcomb!

Pedant's corner: that should be "fine-tooth comb"

Regards

ACB

[summer blizzard]

drfeelgood - 6.4C

Steve Murr - 6.4C

Sunshine - 6.5C

Shuggee - 6.7C

Rikki - 7.2C

Helly Hanson - 7.3C

Joneseye - 7.6C

Terminal Moraine - 7.7C

Evo - 7.7C

ChrisL - 7.8C

Mr Data - 7.9C

Glacier Point - 7.9C

SNOW-MAN2006 - 8C

Peter Tattum - 8.1C

Stephen Prudence - 8.1C

Foggy - 8.2C

Rollo - 8.3C

Optimus Prime - 8.4C

Scribbler - 8.4C

Londonsnow - 8.5C

bartlett_hi - 8.6C

Blast from the past - 8.7C

Reef - 8.8C

Snowmaiden - 8.9C

Kold Weather - 8.9C

SteveB - 8.9C

Bottesford - 9C

The PIT - 9C

Metomania - 9.1C

Summer Blizzard - 9.3

phil n.warks - 9.6C

button-wales - 9.9C

Summer of 95 - 10.1C

Rodger J Smith - 10.2C

Don't know which other sign to use, by the way, know body is allowed enter a CET forecast after 1st April.

Edited March 30, 2006 by summer blizzard

[Metomania]

Don't know which other sign to use

: straight after the name? So,

Metomania: 9.1C

I'm being madly pedantic. However when we get to the bitterly cold 2006/7 winter that some of you want you will need a different symbol for those - ice months. Otherwise it will look like this:

January CET

Nick Sussex - - 3.2C

Thank you for collating all the data so diligently. I have become quite addicted to this silly game over the past 2 weeks. It's cheaper than the lottery and I have a better chance of success.

[Scribbler]

Pedant's corner: that should be "fine-tooth comb"

Regards

ACB

Oops! :lol: You're totally right.

It felt odd when I typed it - but my spellchecker didn't complain!

[Scribbler]

Any bets that the first half of April could be colder than the second half of March? There is a chance.

Every chance!

We're just at the end of 10 (well, nine actually) days of depressions coming from the West.

I was always led to understand that our weather tends to come in approximately 10 day cycles – 10 days of westerlies followed by an anticyclone for another 10 days.

Old folklore/wives tale, etc. :lol:

Sometimes the pattern is broken when one system overcomes the other and so we can get longer periods of settled or unsettled weather.

Regardless of high-tech forecasts I am therefore quite confident that, since we've just had the weasterlies, the next 10 days or so will be dominated by anticyclonic weather which will encourage frosts and northerly or easterly winds – which are inevitably cold at this time of year.

So I'm with you Mr Data – cold start – warmer later.

The question is – will it warm up in time for Easter?

[acbrixton]

Oops! :lol: You're totally right.

It felt odd when I typed it - but my spellchecker didn't complain!

It sticks in mind ever since as an editor of my school magazine I was corrected (an article on nits I think!)

Regards

ACB

[Scribbler]

It sticks in mind ever since as an editor of my school magazine I was corrected (an article on nits I think!)

Regards

ACB

As a practicing proofreaded I should have known better too!

:lol:

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

We go into April

* blocked set up being a recurring feature since Feb, and through March.

* IMO no drastic changes in sea temp anomalies

* split pacific jet projected to continue, allowing Atlantic to dictate

* models showing cold, blocked beginning

April should continue to build Greenland high which will throw the cold over Northern Europe.

There will be mild spell mid month. Perhaps going cooler again and then mild again like the pattern through March.

Cold spells not intense enough to deliver the record breaking low CET.

CET a shade under the average, 7.3C (-0. :lol: .

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

AFT

A decent projection and I believe the GHP may show its face throughout like last year. I think the warmer weather which I agree with timing may well be enough to produce a reasnoably above average month but there is unlikely IMO to be any 'hot' spell for some time unlike recent Springs.

BFTP

[Great Plum]

I'm going for 7.5 - randomly of course!

[Ragnarok]

I think with that Greenland High there, and not looking like it's going anywhere in too much of a hurry I think we'll see a cool month with a few warmer spells thrown in (I've taken Everton Fox as my role model!).

I guess a CET of around 7.1

[Optimus Prime]

Everton Fox should (but probably doesn't) know better. Of course we're going to have cold spells mixed with warm ones. The second half of April is so much different to the first half. The second half is more likely to be warmer/milder then the first half.

Does Everton ever make a constructive forecast? He has all the Metoffice gadgets to use, but does he choose not to use them? And relies upon his occult telepathic communication skills? …if so you would expect him to get at least 1 forecast right.

We start April on a warm one by the looks of it.

[Metomania]

Does Everton ever make a constructive forecast? He has all the Metoffice gadgets to use, but does he choose not to use them? And relies upon his occult telepathic communication skills? …if so you would expect him to get at least 1 forecast right.

I think Everton is actually a very experienced and very accurate forecaster. His long-range forecasts are consistently more accurate than most, along with the rest of the Met Office after this winter's rather impressive performance.