April CET

[Bottesford]

I'm going for 9C.

Yes there will be some cool spells but I don't think the northern blocking will hold forever. Just like in November in reverse - there will probably be a swift change from cool/cold to warm. And I think these warm spells will be pretty warm giving an above average month overall.

Fingers crossed I'm right!

[Joneseye]

I am plumping for a below average 7.6C based on the plucking out of the air method...

[The PIT]

I'm going for 9C this month.

[Scribbler]

April in Taunton last year was warmish and wet.

I recorded 160 mm of rain and despite a daytime average of 16.6C, I only recorded two days over 20C with three frosts.

My local CET equivalent was 10.45.

I can’t see this April being so benign, so, allowing for regional adjustments, I’m going for a National CET for April 2006 of 8.4

[SP1986]

8.1C bang on Average

[reef]

Im going for 8.8°C, mainly because below average Aprils are like gold-dust these days.

[Evo]

7.7 using my super secret and ultra accurate method of prediction.

[SteveB]

I shall be going for....... 8.9c for April's CET.

Edited March 27, 2006 by SteveB

[summer blizzard]

drfeelgood - 6.4C

Sunshine 6.5C

Shuggee - 6.7C

Helly Hanson - 7.3C

Joneseye - 7.6C

Terminal Moraine - 7.7C

Evo - 7.7C

ChrisL - 7.8C

Mr Data - 7.9C

Glacier Point - 7.9C

SNOW-MAN2006 - 8C

Peter Tattum - 8.1C

Stephen Prudence - 8.1C

Rollo - 8.3C

Optimus Prime - 8.4C

Scribbler - 8.4C

bartlett_hi - 8.6C

Blast from the past - 8.7C

Reef - 8.8C

Snowmaiden - 8.9C

Kold Weather - 8.9C

SteveB - 8.9C

Bottesford - 9C

The PIT - 9C

Summer Blizzard - 9.3

button-wales - 9.9C

Summer of 95 - 10.1C

Slightly more above average than below, however there is a fairly even spread, the most agreement so far is on 8.9C.

Edited March 27, 2006 by summer blizzard

[Methuselah]

7.7 using my super secret and ultra accurate method of prediction.

Ah, so you guess too!

[summer blizzard]

Just had a look at the GFS12z ensembles and assuming that there were no inversions, the CET by 5th April would be around 9.1C, which is 1C above average and the CET by the 10th would be around 9.9C, which is 1.8C above average.

[Roger J Smith]

Here's an odd factoid about April CET, if I can believe the tables I am using (copied from HH Lamb's book in 1981 then updated from the metO website for recent years) ...

With all this talk of global warming, there has not been an April CET above 10 degrees since 1987, and yet there were four in the 1790s (between 1792 and 1798). What does it mean? Too many people driving SUVs in the George Washington era, that's what.

And you can quote me.

I would say that England is overdue for a warm April, so let's say 10.2 and see just how badly wrong that can go. But seriously, I see a lot of signs of a warm April, such as a lot of cold air just about everywhere but the eastern Atlantic. The whole northern hemisphere can't be cold at the same time, right? This last couple of days seems to foreshadow a warmish month, the blocking pattern seems subdued if not overwhelmed, and subdued is good enough for warming.

Anyway, 10.2, and I look forward to reading those hilarious "what it will take" estimates from Mr Data towards the end of the month (10.2 - 35.7 etc).

Look for particular warmth around the Easter weekend, by the way. That's when this 10.2 might get established then hold on for any last minute cooldowns.

[Weather-history]

I would say that England is overdue for a warm April, so let's say 10.2 and see just how badly wrong that can go.

I think it is the other way around we are actually overdue for a cool April, Roger.

The Aprils of 2002, 2003 and 2004 were all above average and fairly warm with CETs above 9C. Most of the Aprils since 1989 have been above average. Aprils with a CET of 10 and above are significantly warm, there's only been 17 in total.

There has been only 4 below average Aprils since 1989 and they have only been by small amounts, we've not had a reasonably cool April since 1989, so its a cool April that's overdue Roger not a warm one.

Edited March 28, 2006 by Mr_Data

[summer blizzard]

drfeelgood - 6.4C

Sunshine 6.5C

Shuggee - 6.7C

Helly Hanson - 7.3C

Joneseye - 7.6C

Terminal Moraine - 7.7C

Evo - 7.7C

ChrisL - 7.8C

Mr Data - 7.9C

Glacier Point - 7.9C

SNOW-MAN2006 - 8C

Peter Tattum - 8.1C

Stephen Prudence - 8.1C

Rollo - 8.3C

Optimus Prime - 8.4C

Scribbler - 8.4C

bartlett_hi - 8.6C

Blast from the past - 8.7C

Reef - 8.8C

Snowmaiden - 8.9C

Kold Weather - 8.9C

SteveB - 8.9C

Bottesford - 9C

The PIT - 9C

Summer Blizzard - 9.3

button-wales - 9.9C

Summer of 95 - 10.1C

Rodger J Smith - 10.2C

It seems that nobody has gone for a significantly cold April.

[phil nw.]

My guess is for an April CET of 9.6 C

I ve got a feeling that a lot of High pressure will be around UK this year continuing the pattern of last 18 months or so.

I `m looking at a predominantly south/south west feed around a Biscay / European high pressure belt becoming more prominent later in the month as the Atlantic lows weaken and stay further west and north.

We will still get the occasional colder day with rain but generally a settled and rather warm April i think.

[Optimus Prime]

Going by todays run, the April CET would come out at 3.15c by the 14th. That would be a whopping 4.95c below average. I don't think any April has ever been that cold for the start of the month during the last 105 years (although 1917 would had been close)

[summer blizzard]

drfeelgood - 6.4C

Sunshine 6.5C

Shuggee - 6.7C

Rikki - 7.2C

Helly Hanson - 7.3C

Joneseye - 7.6C

Terminal Moraine - 7.7C

Evo - 7.7C

ChrisL - 7.8C

Mr Data - 7.9C

Glacier Point - 7.9C

SNOW-MAN2006 - 8C

Peter Tattum - 8.1C

Stephen Prudence - 8.1C

Rollo - 8.3C

Optimus Prime - 8.4C

Scribbler - 8.4C

Londonsnow - 8.5C

bartlett_hi - 8.6C

Blast from the past - 8.7C

Reef - 8.8C

Snowmaiden - 8.9C

Kold Weather - 8.9C

SteveB - 8.9C

Bottesford - 9C

The PIT - 9C

Summer Blizzard - 9.3

phil n.warks - 9.6C

button-wales - 9.9C

Summer of 95 - 10.1C

Rodger J Smith - 10.2C

Edited March 29, 2006 by summer blizzard

[londonsnow]

8.5 is my lucky guess, a tad above average. i'm banking on a warm end, after a chilly start

[kold weather]

Well if the 06z run was to be correct, looks like it wants a re-run of the March cold spell and nearly as cold as well due to night-time mins.

Still, at least if these last few months have proven anything, that is that we can still produce a below average month!

[Rollo]

What a depressing run from 6z, unless of course you like unseasonable coolness, I can see the headlines in the Mirror being something like "Ice age Britannia" or such like,this is where I really start hoping GFS has got it wrong but I have an awful feeling that it is going to be some time before we have a lovely cloudless high cell centered right over us.

[Optimus Prime]

Still, at least if these last few months have proven anything, that is that we can still produce a below average month!

It would be certain that we would eventually come across a couple of cold months. These warm/cool periods come and go. I don't think the climate has warmed up to such a degree that we won't get cold months.

We still have the same problem though. The warm spells seem to be a little bit warmer then what they would have been 50-100 years ago. It's obvious that it has something to do with the globe warming up but it's quite worrying. First 3 week of March were exceptionally cold yet 6 days of warm weather has been sufficient enough to rise it by 1.6c.

Meteorologically the earth has been warming up since around the start of the 20th century for then to be a slight cool down from the 40's-69. Ever since, while since the start of the 20th century it's been warming up (the 60's was a modern cool era) and then started to slightly cool down during the early 80's for then escalated warmth during the 90's (exceptions being 91,92,93 and 96)

Ever since the start of the new millennium the warming trend has been incredible. But this year could be different, it's quite a bit like 1996 just a little bit milder.

Unfortuanetly a few cool months proves very little just like it would if they were warm months from a cooling period. We had loads of them during the 90's and a few so far this century. But the overall warming trend continues.

Edited March 29, 2006 by Optimus Prime

[kold weather]

Which is what makes these last few months so different to what we've become used to. Afterall as you say, we've had one above average month after another one, to think if Jan could have been 0.2c lower, this would be our 5th below average month in a row!

(ps, the last 3 months have set us up for a possible shot at a sub-10c year if April can also be below average, shows how desperate things have become!)

[Bottesford]

What a depressing run from 6z, unless of course you like unseasonable coolness, I can see the headlines in the Mirror being something like "Ice age Britannia" or such like,this is where I really start hoping GFS has got it wrong but I have an awful feeling that it is going to be some time before we have a lovely cloudless high cell centered right over us.

It's not really unseasonable! Northerlies in April are very common really. The CET for April is 8.1C. You can't get a CET of 8.1C without temperatures being below that and above it. If it was to be 20C all April that would be unseasonable! As would 4C all April. But a combination of those two extremes yields your average. April WILL have some warm spells- we've just gotta be patient. Even though I'm finding it somewhat hard to be patient now- both for my heating bills sake and for being able to enjoy outside a bit more.

It really has been a shock this year to have normal conditions in March!

[Optimus Prime]

(ps, the last 3 months have set us up for a possible shot at a sub-10c year if April can also be below average, shows how desperate things have become!)

As long as we don't get a hot summer and very warm autumn it's now certain we won't manage the warmest year on record. It seems we've been breaching the warmest year on record title for some time now.

Has to be said though, a few hundred years ago 10c was unheard off and would occur every so often (about once every thirty years) and even the high 9's were pretty rare. Generally the average yearly temperature were between the high 8's and low 9's. With even a few 7's in there. We haven't had a yearly CET at 7.0c or below for well over a hundred years. 1740 was the coldest year on record with a CET of 6.84 it contained a very severe winter and the only month above average was September. It was rare in those days so it would be nearly impossible these days to get a sub 7.0c year CET.

But this year so far has been interesting, January was just 0.1c above average and February was 0.4c below average. But we still haven't received a well below average month yet (Monthly CET atleast 2.0c below average) and the last time we had one of those was May 1996.

Back on topic, if April gets a CET below average that would be noteworthy, even in old standards and it's quite possible looking at the latest charts.

[kold weather]

May I also add something quickly.

Below average is only relative to the scale that is being used. I'm sure in 50-80 years time these last few years will be described as cold relative to the CET scale in the future.

The really intresting thing to watch is whether or not this is a short or medium term change like mid 90's, or whether this is one of those decade long change to colder temps.

Thats something that won't become clear for another 5 years at least. It's probably just a blip for maybe a couple of years or maybe just a few months, but who knows!

With no el nino on the horzion, I see no reason why temps should re-bound upwards again with any real force, afterall it was El nino that killed off the mid 90's cooldown.