BBC Weather Monthly Outlook...

[Stuart]

Cooler, showery start, but becoming very warm again.

Well, it's all been happening in the Weather Centre this last few weeks! As temperatures looked set to break records just a short while ago, the mercury started to rise yet again and heat-wave conditions intensified further. The oppressive heat and humidity has brought many problems to humans and animals alike, and also placed a very real strain on our power supplies from the widespread use of air conditioners amongst other things.

This time last year, July and August turned out to be warmer than average, and that's definitely the case for July of this year too! Temperatures on Wednesday 26th July reached 34 Celsius in central London, and the week before on Wednesday the 19th, the temperature soared to 37 Celsius in Wisley, Surrey - phew!

If you've had enough of this heat, then there's some good news and some bad news…. The good news is that it's looking like a much fresher start to this week with showers, but the bad news is that it's looking like warmer weather is again lurking just around the corner. And on that note, let's have a look…

Monday 31st July to Sunday 6th August

“Unsettled start, becoming drier and warmer.”

The week starts on a breezy note, with a good scattering of showers - and a few heavy ones at that. But there will be some sunny spells too. More persistent rain will plague mostly the north of the UK with strong winds - gales at times in the more exposed areas - and it will feel cooler for the time being.

All of these showers will enhance the windy feel, so it will feel pretty blustery at times, as well as much fresher as the temperatures will be around the 20 - 24 Celsius range, which is just about right for July, but obviously a good deal less than the sort of temperatures we've become accustomed to in the last few weeks.

A cool, northern wind looks probably towards the end of the week, which will slowly push the showers away, as a ridge of high pressure starts to build again in the southwest. Through the weekend it's looking rather more settled in the south even if there doesn't seem to be a lot of sunshine on offer, although that won't stop the temperatures rising again, especially over England and Wales.

Of course, this week sees the continuation of Cowes Week, which set sail on Saturday and marks the 180th Anniversary of the event. The increase in winds and local squalls around any showers will be the main disruptive factor to the sailing, but I'm sure that it will just make it all the more exciting!

Monday 7th to Sunday 13th August

“Hot and sunny to start; chance of rain in the north”

The Azores High will once again dominate the weather across southern Britain, bringing settled, warm conditions with a fair amount of sunshine - mostly towards the southwest. Temperatures will slide upwards once again and will start to get very warm by the weekend, although I don't think it will be as hot as recent weeks have been.

The northern half of the UK looks fresher in a northwesterly breeze and also more unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain at times.

Monday 14th to Sunday 27th August

“Changeable, still rather warm”

The Azores High looks set to slowly retreat towards the end of the month allowing a more usual, westerly breeze to take over. This type of 'mobile westerly' airflow tends to bring showers but with sunny spells in between - our 'usual' British weather, if you like. England and Wales should see rather more rain too - much needed of course - as some heavy downpours develop. Temperatures are likely to still be above average, but they will start to slide back to more typical values by the end of the month.

Still looking good for this year's Notting Hill Carnival?!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

A changeable start but becoming very warm again for some.

It's official; July was the hottest month EVER since records began - even hotter than 1976 and the August of 2003 which, in recent memory, was sweltering - and of course, was when the UK's highest ever temperature was recorded near Faversham in Kent.

The average temperatures in July were as follows: Mean daily temperature : 17.8 Celsius Mean daily maximum temperature : 23.1 Celsius Monthly sunshine total : 263 hours (over 50% above July average)

These figures are for the UK as a whole - if you would like to see the statistics for other areas or get more information on the recent heatwave, then check out this link from the Met Office: www.metoffice.com/corporate/pressoffice/2006/pr20060801.html

But we're not the only ones who have been wilting in the heat. Germany has also had it's hottest ever month, and Denmark has recorded its hottest ever July. Over the Atlantic, New York City had a wilting start to the week, as temperatures reached 43 Celsius, almost beating the record there. Temperatures have since dropped to the mid thirties but that is still really intense and very hard to live with.

With climate change very much a reality, episodes of extreme heat such as this, and also extreme weather events, will become more commonplace with time. And so, sooner or later these records will, too, be broken.

For now at least, it's been a much more comfortable week with temperatures much lower than those during the heatwave so it feels comparatively cool - although in fact, it's just about average for this time of year. But will those temperatures creep up again through the rest of August?

Monday 7th to Sunday 13th August

“Sunshine and showers, temperatures staying around average.”

After a warm Sunday in the southeast, fresher weather returned from the northwest in the shape of a cold front, although much of the rain it brought with it, has been fizzling as it has headed into the south.The week kicks off on a rather dry note, but fresher than the weekend. Still rather cloudy, with some sunny spells and temperatures about average, around 18 to 22 Celsius

Rain threatens the west midweek, although it seems that it will fizzle out quite quickly as high pressure builds again from the Atlantic. There will be quite a lot of cloud around still, with perhaps the best of the sunshine along the south coast.

For the end of the week and the weekend, cloud and outbreaks of rain will be more prevalent in the northwest, but otherwise it's a predominantly dry picture, if rather a cloudy one. A few showers are likely in eastern areas too with a freshening breeze. It's the southwest corner, closest to the high pressure, that will see the sunniest weather, and here it should be a very pleasant weekend.

Monday 14th to Sunday 20th August

“Sunny in the south, more showery elsewhere but becoming warmer”

The area of high pressure from the Azores will remain centred to the west of the British Isles - this will allow Atlantic frontal systems to move around the edge of the high and southeastwards across the UK, bringing outbreaks of rain, but mostly to the northwest.

Changeable conditions are expected to continue in the north with showers or longer spells of rain interspersed by drier, brighter spells whilst areas further south should be mainly dry with just a few showers. There will be variable amounts of cloud and so sunny spells will develop at times perhaps becoming very warm in central and southern areas.

Monday 21st August to Sunday 3rd September

“Still changeable; warmest and sunniest in the south.”

Little change is anticipated with frontal troughs continuing to move south or southeastwards over the UK around the high pressure. Again, it will be most changeable in the north, with generally drier conditions for the more sheltered southern half of the country. It will stay warm or very warm in central and southern parts, but otherwise temperatures remain "average" for the time of year.

. It does look as though the August Bank Holiday weekend will be fine, dry and really quite warm in the south - so if you're thinking of joining the Notting Hill Carnival, it may well feel Caribbean in climate as well as flavour!

How high will those temperatures rise? More news next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Unsettled and much cooler than average.

After a record breaking July, August has begun on a comparatively cooler note. It looks as though it may well have started as it means to go on with temperatures falling below the seasonal average.

Statistically the average August should bring to the UK:

Five or six hours of sunshine a day

Around 15 days with rain in the month

Daytime highs of 17C in the north, 21C in the south

Overnight lows of 9 or 10C in the north, 11 or 12C in the south

During July the major influence on the weather across the UK was air being circulated from the continent towards us (from the south) around an area of high pressure - hence a lot of sunshine and already warm air, bolstering our daytime highs.

August however, looks to be very much the opposite. Low pressure is the predominant driver, often sitting to the east of the UK, pulling cool air from the north and maintaining a rather unsettled story.

So, what of the month ahead?

Monday 14th to Sunday 20th August

“Unsettled with temperatures well below average.”

Low pressure will be the biggest influence on the weather yet again this week.

We begin the week with low pressure sitting in the North Sea keeping the cool presence of a northerly breeze across the UK and feeding yet more outbreaks of rain into eastern England. Elsewhere, it should be largely dry with some decent sunny spells after a rather grey end to the weekend.

By Tuesday, the low pressure in the east relinquishes its hold to another low approaching from the northwest. Through Tuesday it will slide southwards across western areas of the UK and bring some steady outbreaks of rain. This will then become a drier day for the east but still rather cloudy.

Once sitting to the southwest of the UK in the Bay of Biscay, this new low looks reluctant to move for the remainder of the week. Wednesday should be a largely dry day with just scattered showers in the southwest, but for Thursday and Friday the low has the potential to bring some torrential downpours to England and Wales as it continues to deepen and push northwards again.

Monday 21st to Sunday 27th August

“Staying cool and unsettled.”

The degree of mobility of weather systems across the UK looks even greater this week, with a number of depressions heading our way from the Atlantic.

As a result, temperatures and sunshine are once again forecast to be below average. Rainfall is forecast to be above everywhere, particularly in the southeast. Not great news for holiday makers but certainly a benefit in light of the current drought conditions.

Monday 28th August to Sunday 10th September

“Still unsettled but potentially getting warmer.”

Low pressure still looks to be our influence even by the end of the period. By this stage however, it looks as if the centres may well stay to the north of the UK and sit us in a westerly flow.

This means still more unsettled weather with bands of showers and rain being fed our way from the Atlantic - but, the west is generally a warmer wind direction for us than the north so temperatures could rally. In fact, in some drier interludes and with some help from the sun we may well see temperatures making it back above average for a while - the west being the most favoured area for this at the moment.

Will the school holidays end with sunshine or showers? More next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

Edited August 14, 2006 by Stuart H

[Nick H]

Couldn't be much worse really then. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blush.gif

[Damien]

Monday 28th August to Sunday 10th September

“Still unsettled but potentially getting warmer.”

Low pressure still looks to be our influence even by the end of the period. By this stage however, it looks as if the centres may well stay to the north of the UK and sit us in a westerly flow.

This means still more unsettled weather with bands of showers and rain being fed our way from the Atlantic - but, the west is generally a warmer wind direction for us than the north so temperatures could rally. In fact, in some drier interludes and with some help from the sun we may well see temperatures making it back above average for a while - the west being the most favoured area for this at the moment.

Will the school holidays end with sunshine or showers? More next week.

Encouraging IMHO. So are the ensembles.

[Stuart]

Unsettled, blustery at times.

The last week has brought many heavy and thundery downpours - and at last, there have been a fair few over the drought-affected southeast. Statistically, it's still a drop in the ocean, but it has been lovely to see the rain pour down and give the parched gardens a good soaking.

Having said that, in Cumbria which hasn't had any water shortages, torrential rain early on Saturday morning brought a total of 37mm of rain at St Bees Head near the coast between 6am and 8am. Also badly hit by excessive rainfall was Kinloss along the Moray coast with 36mm through the day, although here it was more a case of steady, persistent rain rather than the intense, brief but torrential rain in Cumbria.

The faster the rain falls, the more likely it is to cause flooding, as the water run-off cannot all be confined to the usual pathways to the rivers and reservoirs - the August storms of 2004 are a good example of this, when huge, slow moving thunderstorms just literally poured rain across west London and parts of the southeast one sultry late summer's day.

Monday 21st to Sunday 27th August

"Another unsettled week."

Although Tuesday looks more settled. The day will start mostly dry and sunny with just a little mist and in eastern England and a few light showers. However Northern Ireland will turn more cloudy with rain through the afternoon. By evening western Scotland, western Wales and southwestern England will also see some rain.

Wednesday for England and Wales is set to be rather wet and windy. By contrast Northern Ireland and Scotland, after some early showers will become dryer with a decent day in prospect. By Thursday however more rain is on the cards for western areas.

Meanwhile England, Wales and Eastern Scotland may well enjoy a brief respite after early mist or fog clears. By midnight however the rain will have swept right across the UK.

Monday 28th August to Sunday 3rd September

"Blustery with sunshine and showers"

It looks rather autumnal this week with bands of rain sweeping across the UK from the northwest, followed by the typical pattern of sunshine and showers. With a brisk wind accompanying the low pressure systems which give rise to this pattern, the showers are likely to be blustery or even squally in nature, especially over Scotland.

Eastern areas, and mostly the southeast of England, will see the most sunshine, being more sheltered from the northwesterly wind and also the showers.

Temperatures will be rather cool for August in the wind and the rain, although it should still feel rather pleasant in the sunnier spells between any rainfall, with temperatures recovering in the sunshine.

Monday 4th to Sunday 17th September

"Unsettled with the best chance of drier spells in the east"

There doesn't appear to be any significant settled weather on the horizon, so Autumn may as well declare its arrival. The Azores high will still have a subtle influence over the southwest of England, and south Wales, so here we're likely to see the driest conditions, although perhaps staying rather cloudy.

Low pressure systems crossing the UK will again mean plenty of showers or longer spells of rain, but with sunny interludes at times, especially in sheltered eastern areas.

Temperatures should be around average for early September, perhaps on the warm side in the sunnier eastern areas.

Will summer end on a warm note? More next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

It will be a cool and changeable end to August but the weather will become increasingly settled as we go through September.

It has been another week of notable rainfall for many of us. There can't too many parched lawns left across the UK. Kent, otherwise known as "the garden of England" has certainly seen plenty of rainfall recently. Thursday was the wettest day of the week and it rained for much of the day across the southeast. Bognor Regis (West Sussex) had nearly 2 inches of rain (47.3mm).

It has felt rather cool and miserable at times in the cloud and the rain and you'd be forgiven for thinking that autumn has come early.

However, temperatures have been close to average for most. We had highs of 23 or 24 Celsius somewhere in southern England every day last week (average is nearer 21 degrees).

Monday 28th August to Sunday 3rd September

"Another unsettled week"

Areas of low pressure look set to dominate our weather this week and it will be decidedly unsettled. Many places will have a very wet and windy week.

After a cool, showery start, courtesy of a west to northwesterly wind, it will gradually warm up towards the latter part of the week as we draw in a southwesterly wind from the sub-tropics.

That warm, moist air coming in from the Atlantic suggests another spell of very wet and windy weather for many of us. The worst of this week's rain will make it feel cold and miserable at times. Indeed many places will not reach 20 Celsius at all this week.

There will be some spells of sunshine in between the rain, and taken as a whole, totals should be close to average for all parts. Given the unsettled nature of the weather there will of course be large regional variations.

Monday 4th to Sunday 10th September

"A drier week; sunniest in central and southeastern England"

Pressure will remain relatively low to the north but high pressure will nudge its way into the southwest bringing drier weather to all parts.

There will be some wet weather but no great amounts and with the winds coming in from the west temperatures should be close to the seasonal average. Central and southeastern parts will have the best of any sunshine.

Monday 11th to Sunday 24th September

"Fine and dry"

The "Azores High" (pressure region) looks set to remain close by, keeping it fairly settled for most places. It will be largely fine and dry.

There should also be more sunshine for all of us Temperatures may even be on the warm side across the Midlands and the southeast of England.

Is it time to start hoping for an Indian summer? More next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

A lot of fine, dry and sunny weather is expected this month and it will feel warm in light winds.

It was interesting to see that Thames Water decided to withdraw their request for a drought order at the end of last week. I suppose it comes as some surprise that it took them that long to come to this conclusion.

Many of us will view August as rather disappointing coming off the back of a blistering July. In all fairness though, we should see it as a brief period of respite for the drought threatened areas of the south.

However, It was overall a pretty average month, with some huge variations. Southwest England and south Wales only had 75% of its average rainfall (based on 61-90 average). At the same time East Anglia had 205% of its normal rainfall making it the 3rd wettest August on record.

Monday 4th to Sunday 10th September

“A sunny start for the new school term”

With its usual ironic twist, school has re-opened and the weather now looks set to settle down again. Any showers or longer spells of rain will steadily get squeezed away to the north as pressure builds across England and Wales.

By and large it is going to be a dry week. There will be some rain to come with Scotland and Northern Ireland getting the majority of that and it will be heavy at times across the Scottish Highlands.

Temperatures will hover around the seasonal average in the northwest but most places will have a warm week. And it will feel pleasantly warm with the winds falling light.

Sunshine totals were generally on the low side in August. The dullest weather was in Northern Scotland where around 75% of the monthly norm was recorded. I suspect that there will be no shortage for any of us this month. It will become increasingly sunny as the week goes on.

Monday 11th to Sunday 17th September

“Above average sunshine and plenty of warm weather”

Pressure will remain fairly high across England and Wales bringing drier weather to most parts of the UK. Rainfall totals are likely to be a little below average for all areas.

Despite not falling within the strict definition of an Indian summer, I think there could be talk along those lines this week, with above average sunshine and plenty of warm weather expected for all of us.

Monday 18th September to Sunday 1st October

“Promising start but could become unsettled.”

The "Azores High" (pressure region) looks set to retreat away allowing spells of unsettled weather to move in from the west.

It should still be warm for late September with the driest and warmest weather in the south and east. It will become increasingly wet for all, with the wettest weather again across Scotland and Northern Ireland.

September looks quite promising but will the end of the month bring a change in the weather?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

An unsettled and windy spell of weather at first with rain for all of us, turning drier later, especially in the southeast. Staying warm.

Summer seems reluctant to give up without a fight. The heat has returned in early September. Daytime temperatures in recent days have again reached the high 20s Celsius in a few places, while the high teens would normally be more commonplace at this time of year.

Even so, the countryside is beginning to take on the tinge of early autumn. The lengthening nights are a reminder that the seasons are changing, and in some parts of the UK, we've seen some early morning pockets of fog and frost.

We'll soon be reaching the Autumn Equinox, when nights become longer than days. Traditionally this is a period of gales and heavy rain. I think for some of us this year's Equinox will prove true to form.

Monday 11th to Sunday 17th September

“Late summer sunshine gives way to rain from the west”

High pressure which has brought the recent sunshine will retreat further into the Continent. Low pressure will edge in from the Atlantic, taking up residence just to the west of the UK.

After a sunny start to the week, bands of cloud and thundery rain will spread erratically eastwards. The rain will be quite 'hit and miss' at first, and it may take until midweek for any significant rain to reach eastern counties. However by the weekend we will all be seeing some wet weather, especially out west.

It will turn progressively more breezy, and later in the week some strong winds are likely, with the risk of gales across exposed parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, west Wales and southwest England.

Although sunshine will be more fitful than recently, it will still feel quite warm in the brighter spells. Temperatures will range from the high teens to the low 20s Celsius, and the southerly winds should also keep the autumn frost well at bay.

Monday 18th to Sunday 24th September

“Staying warm, but wet out west for the Ryder Cup”

Low pressure will slide up to the northwest of the UK, but the Continental high pressure may fight back in the southeast.

So Scotland and Northern Ireland will see most wind and rain. Our Ryder Cup golfers can expect a soaking at times while playing at the K Club in Kildare, Ireland. Brighter but still breezy further south and east across England and Wales. Still quite warm.

Monday 25th September to Sunday 8th October

“New month - more of the same weather”

The weather pattern will remain quite similar. Low pressure will tend to bring most of the rain and wind to Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the north and west of England and Wales. High pressure will keep the south and east of England driest and sunniest.

Southwesterly winds will prevail, ensuring temperatures remain above the normal for this stage in the autumn.

At some point, the weather will play 'catch-up', so when will autumn bring its first cold and frosty spell?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Changeable and cool, becoming warmer and more settled.

The Autumn Equinox is just around the corner with the typical seasonal scenario of low pressure systems bringing spells of heavy rain and strong winds with the potential for gales across the UK. And so, it looks as though the late summer sunshine we've enjoyed has come to a close, at least for now.

As for the chillier nights which we can begin to expect at this time of year, we could well escape the possibility of frost for now - but it won't be long before the night time temperatures tumble under clear skies. The generally mild theme of the coming few weeks is largely dependent on the wind direction and also the amount of cloud which will keep the overnight temperatures up for most areas.

Another aspect of autumn is of course fog. We have started to see morning fog in recent days, especially around hilly areas, and I suspect that we will see more this month as low cloud rolls in with the incoming weather systems.

Monday 18th to Sunday 25th September

“Rain for most windy at times.”

After a fairly warm and dry weekend for many areas, the working week starts off with the introduction of a low pressure system, bringing increasingly strong wind and a band of rain sweeping west to east across the UK. There is the potential for gales in the exposed west and by Tuesday the wind is still fresh with more rain on the way in the north and west, with some sunshine in the south and east of England.

By midweek, the wind gets very strong, especially over England and Wales with local gales a risk once again. Most places will see a fair amount of rain, although this time Northern Ireland may well miss the majority of it.

Thursday sees the wind begin to die down, but it stays predominantly cloudy and still wet at times, a theme which continues into Friday, although the sun will be more likely to appear in eastern areas at the end of the week.

Over the weekend it looks like a mixture of sunshine and showers for most areas, although the showers could merge together in the northwest to give a rather cloudier, wetter scenario than the comparatively brighter, sunnier southeast, where the wind will also be lighter.

Through the week, temperatures will be around average for this time of year, although it will feel rather cool and fresh at times in the strong winds and heavy downpours.

Monday 25th to Sunday 1st October

“Rain at times, sunny interludes, a little cool”

The overall picture keeps lower pressure to the northwest of the UK whilst allowing the Azores High to exert more of an influence from the Bay of Biscay across southern Britain. The predominantly westerly or northwesterly wind will bring across showers or longer spells of rain at times, but with drier, brighter interludes between.

Essentially, the weather will remain changeable. It will feel pleasantly warm during the sunnier spells although it will be cooler and more blustery when the rain and showers pass through. On the whole temperatures will be a touch below average for the end of September.

Monday 2nd Sunday 15th to Sunday 15th October

“More settled; feeling warmer.”

The beginning of October could see more settled conditions. At this stage, the Azores High seems to extend across southern areas and will increase the pressure right across the UK. This will result in a shift in the wind to a more southwesterly direction and temperatures could creep up - particularly in the northeast of England and also the north and east of Scotland.

Weather fronts will bring spells of rain followed by showers at times but they will be weaker in intensity and so the overall picture looks somewhat drier. The best of the dry and sunny weather will be across the eastern side of the UK, but most areas will see a fair amount of pleasant, autumn sunshine.

How high will those autumn temperatures rise? More news next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

will be unsettled with rain at times, but we can expect some drier, brighter spells too and it will remain on the warm side.We saw some spectacular contrasts in the weather last week. Thursday provided a late taste of summer for most of us. The temperature reached 29 Celsius (84 Fahrenheit) in Bedford. That was followed by some typical autumnal gales overnight with the remnants of Hurricane Gordon blasting damaging winds of 70mph across the western side of the UK.

Areas of low pressure will continue during the month ahead. It will remain rather changeable with rain never too far away but we can also look forward to some pleasant spells of sunshine.

This mobile set up to the weather means that we shouldn't have too many frosts to worry about and if anything temperatures will tend to be well above average during the next few weeks.

Monday 25th to Sunday 1st October

“Expect gales and heavy rain”

Brisk west to southwesterly winds are expected across the UK this week with weather systems feeding in from the Atlantic.

It should be a relatively quiet start to the week with a scattering of showers which will be heaviest in the north and west. By the middle of the week the remnants of another hurricane - Hurricane Helene, are expected to bring gales and heavy rain to many parts of our shores.

Wednesday looks like the wettest day and heavy rainfall is expected in all areas. I suspect that the rainfall totals across southern parts of England and Wales could even be well above average for this time of year.

The rain should move through quickly and despite the very wet weather, sunshine amounts could also be above average, indicative of the very changeable nature of this week's weather. Temperatures will remain on the warm side and we are not expecting any frosts just yet.

Monday 2nd to Sunday 8th October

“No shortage of sunshine in some areas of the UK”

A slack west to southwesterly flow will bring further spells of rain across the UK this week. However, there should be no shortage of sunshine and some central areas may even exceed average values.

I suspect that when it does rain it could well pour but it will at least be warm rain and any night frosts will still be few and far between.

Monday 9th October to Sunday 22nd October

“Above average temperatures likely”

The "Azores High" (pressure region) looks set to move a little closer to southern England bringing drier conditions to most parts. The Midlands and East Anglia could receive above average rainfall whilst temperatures are also likely to remain above average for October.

Will the weather become a little scary as we head towards Halloween

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[shuggee]

Monthly Summary

Sunshine and showers at first, settling down for a time, generally still mild.

We saw some rather lively weather at the weekend - with strengthening wind, blustery showers and even clusters of thunderstorms at times, which is a big contrast to the very warm sunshine enjoyed by many towards the end of September.

On Sunday, Newcastle hosted the Great North Run, which started out on a decidedly soggy note - but the sun came out as the runners crossed the finishing line.

During September some very high temperatures were recorded. 29 Celsius was the high at Sutton Bonnington in the Midlands. Overall, this September has been the warmest on record, beating the previous record set in September 1949. More facts and figures can be found on the Met Office website.

Monday 2nd to Sunday 8th October

"Blustery showers at first, strong winds at times, settling down over the weekend"

After a weekend of thunderstorms, it may be a touch chilly first thing Monday morning for central areas, where the skies will be clearer through the night, but persistent rain will still linger across southern Scotland and Northern Ireland from the weekend. Strong winds will still affect the Channel coasts and the far north of Scotland, with the risk of gales in these areas.

The best of the sunshine this week will be in Northern Ireland, western Scotland and northwestern England. Elsewhere, it's looking showery, with strong winds at times, although generally the winds will ease down after Monday.

From Thursday into Friday, showers will develop widely across the UK, with heavy downpours likely and the risk of thunderstorms again. Blustery, squally winds will also pick up, and there will be the risk of gales by the end of the week, mostly in the northwest of the UK.

There will be an unsettled start to the weekend, with lots of heavy showers on Saturday, but things will slowly start to settle down, and high pressure will begin to build. This will mean a much quieter Sunday with lighter wind, more sunshine and a lot less cloud - which could lead to a misty night.

Monday 9th to Sunday 15th October

"A good deal of dry weather, feeling warm during sunny spells"

The high pressure and northwesterly wind brings the risk of showers to the far north and west of the UK, particularly for northwest Scotland. But on the whole, the rest of the UK should experience a good deal of settled weather with a fair amount of sunshine, but also a few showers at times.

Temperatures will be above average for October. It will be particularly dry in the southeast of England with some areas receiving very little rainfall. Clear skies during the day could mean that overnight temperatures will drop, increasing the chance of night time frost with mist and fog during the early mornings.

Monday 16th to Sunday 29th October

"Cooling off, showers or longer spells of rain"

The high pressure will begin to shrink away from the UK towards the end of the month. A more typical autumnal pattern will return, with a westerly wind and bands of rain followed by showers and occasional sunshine. Although temperatures will fall compared to the previous week, they will still be around average for October - it will just feel cooler and fresher.

From: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Unsettled and mild but very windy at times.

Once again, the recent weather has provided some stark contrasts. Last Friday the southeast saw battering winds and relentless driving rain, and yet Saturday yielded a quiet breezy day with lots of warm sunshine.

As October continues, so does the changeable Autumn weather. Low pressure systems bring heavy rain, lots of showers but also a surprising amount of sunshine in between, and as the wind generally pushes in from the mid-Atlantic, temperatures can be much higher than you might expect.

Monday 9th to Sunday 15th October

"Rain at times but mainly dry and settled"

The new working week gets off to a dry and bright start for most of the UK. A little rain still lingering in Scotland from a wet Sunday night will clear through Monday morning, and a narrow band of cloud and light rain will sweep across England and Wales through the day. On the whole, it will be a mild if a little grey in places, but the evening should be fine for all with some late sunshine and temperatures could reach 20 degrees in the southeast and 15 or 16 in the northwest.

With clear skies on Monday it will be a chilly night, and so Tuesday morning will be cold with an air of frost for some rural areas in the northern half of the UK, however there should be a fair deal of sunshine once any early mist has been dispersed. A strengthening wind will come in from the south, also bringing a good deal of rain in from west to east.

By Wednesday, it's still windy, with some heavier bursts of rain and possibly some thunderstorms too, but there will be some drier interludes developing towards the end of the day, especially in the west. Thursday will be a drier and much brighter day - still windy in the northwest, and fog may be reluctant to clear in the southeast in the morning.

A chilly night takes us into Friday, again with stubborn mist or fog in the morning, but most places should have a bright day with most of the sunshine in the south and east.

Into the weekend, it's still very mild, and also looks rather settled with a good deal of dry weather and sunny spells too. Thicker cloud will bring a little drizzle to the southwest at times.Chilly nights and overnight mist and fog will stay, although daytime temperatures will creep up to give some rather warm afternoons.

Monday 16th to Sunday 22nd October

"A mild and settled start but turning cooler"

A dry and settled start especially in the north and east of the UK, with sunny spells at times, although many areas will stay rather cloudy.

Overnight frost and fog will feature this week and although daytime temperatures will creep up for the first part of the week, it will soon start to feel chillier than of late as the temperatures return to average values with a chance of rain most likely in the southern counties of England.

Towards the end of the week, bands of rain sweep through bringing sunshine and showers. It appears that we could be in for a good deal of rain across the board but the sunshine in between the showers will also provide some pleasant and warm-feeling sunshine, especially in the more sheltered eastern parts of the UK.

Monday 23rd to Sunday 5th November

"Staying unsettled with above average temperatures"

The overall weather pattern stays rather similar with low pressure to the northwest of the UK.

Lots of cloud will bring mild nights and the southwesterly airflow will mean daytime temperatures staying well above the average (only about 8 or 9 degrees in November) despite the lack of sunshine! Again, we will see showers or longer spells of rain, with some sunshine in between, and a brisk southwesterly wind.

Bonfire Night is approaching and at this stage it looks as though the sparklers could be a bit damp! More details next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Monday 16th to Sunday 22nd October

"A mild and settled start but turning cooler"

A dry and settled start especially in the north and east of the UK, with sunny spells at times, although many areas will stay rather cloudy.

Overnight frost and fog will feature this week and although daytime temperatures will creep up for the first part of the week, it will soon start to feel chillier than of late as the temperatures return to average values with a chance of rain most likely in the southern counties of England.

Towards the end of the week, bands of rain sweep through bringing sunshine and showers. It appears that we could be in for a good deal of rain across the board but the sunshine in between the showers will also provide some pleasant and warm-feeling sunshine, especially in the more sheltered eastern parts of the UK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

I would love their forecast to be right for next week with overnight fog and frost, sunshine and showers and cooler near the end. I am away to the Highlands next week so if anywhere gets frost it will be there http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

[Weather-history]

Everton Fox's monthly outlook is out of date before its even published!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

As that low pressure crosses the UK, northerly winds begin to pull down colder air into northern and western areas. This means that for Thursday and Friday, it will start to feel quite cold, especially so on Friday as the low pulls into the North Sea and a northeasterly wind sets in. Showers with clear spells in-between could mean some icy roads on Friday morning in northern Britain.

That wasn't even mentioned on the Countryfile forecast yesterday. They are a becoming a real joke these BBC monthly outlooks.

[tom_f123]

as u say didnt even mention anything about cold yesterday http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.gif

[tom_f123]

Monthly Summary

Generally unsettled and mild, expect colder snaps from time to time.

Whilst mowing my lawn last week (and I fear it won't be the last time this year) I came across quite a few ladybirds. I suppose its not that surprising when you consider just how mild it still is. Indeed last Monday marked the 7th day in a row that the temperature reached 20 Celsius in some parts of the UK.

It does look like we'll keep the relatively mild weather over the next few weeks with very few overnight frosts to come.

Sub-tropical air will continue to feed in from the warm waters of the Atlantic. The pay-off being that it will remain unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain.

Another aspect of autumn is of course fog. We have started to see morning fog in recent days, especially around hilly areas, and I suspect that we will see a fair amount more this month as low cloud rolls in with the incoming weather systems.

Monday 23rd to Sunday 29th October“Windy at times - more rain on the way.”

Low pressure will drift across the UK from the Atlantic towards Scandinavia. This will cause mild southwesterly winds to veer round to a cooler northerly direction before mild southwesterlies return later in the week.

Temperatures are likely to be close to average values at first but as cooler air tucks in we may even have a touch of frost to contend with around the middle of the week, especially in the north. Temperatures will recover by the weekend.

It could be a rather wet week and I suspect that we'll all have above average rainfall totals with bands of rain sweeping across us. That rain will tend to move through quite quickly - driven away by some pretty windy weather. There is the risk of winds touching gale force in exposed areas.

There will be some bright and breezy periods in between the rain giving good sunny spells to all parts.

Monday 30th October to Sunday 5th November“Above average temperatures - wet weather continues”

A brisk southwesterly flow is expected to develop, keeping temperatures above if not well above average, especially across England Wales and Northern Ireland.

It will also bring plenty of rain to all parts. Once again sunshine totals should be close to average but it could be a little dull at times towards the southwest.

Monday 6th to Sunday 19th November “Remaining mild; still unsettled.”

It looks like we'll probably keep this mild and unsettled weather right into the middle of November. There should be no shortage of rainfall with the heaviest rain remaining across the southwest.

Temperatures could be close to average values in Northern Ireland and southwest Scotland but most of us won't be looking to crank up the central heating…just yet.

As the nights get longer, will it be time to finally dig out that winter wardrobe?

Edited October 23, 2006 by tom_f123

[Stuart]

The new month brings a short, sharp shock.

The warmth continues. On the back of the long hot summer, this October looks like being one of the warmest on record too.

However it is only a matter of time before we get a rude awakening. We may still be basking in the mid-teens, but daytime temperatures at this time of year should normally range from around 10 Celsius in Scotland and Northern Ireland to 12 Celsius in England and Wales.

Colder weather has been loitering just to the north of the UK for some time, and now it looks like it is finally flooding southwards - albeit briefly.

<DIV class=contentinfobox>

Monday 30th to Sunday 5th November

“From late summer to early winter in a few days”

The week starts bright and mild across England and Wales. Scotland and Northern Ireland will be cloudier with some rain. The rain will then head southwards across England and Wales through Tuesday, to give a rather damp Halloween for many.

Monday 6th October to Sunday 12th November

“Back to mild and damp”

Low pressure will steer Atlantic air back towards us. The 'low' will generate rain, especially across Northern Ireland, western Scotland, Wales and western England.

There will be some brief spells of sunshine, especially across the more southeastern parts of the UK, and the southwesterly breeze will ensure a return to mild and largely frost-free conditions.

Monday 13th to Sunday 26th November

“Mild weather continues”

The weather pattern will remain similar to recent weeks. Low pressure will tend to bring most of the rain and wind to Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the north and west of England and Wales. Higher pressure will keep the south and east of England drier.

Southwesterly winds will prevail, ensuring temperatures stay quite mild. Any fog or frost will be short lived.

Will the cold snap really only last a few days

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Bham Chris]

Nice to see Everton mild ramping as usual,though he's usually right

[Weather-history]

Nice to see Everton mild ramping as usual,though he's usually right

Usually right? I think he is often more wrong than right

This was his forecast for this week from a week last Monday

Monday 30th October to Sunday 5th November“Above average temperatures - wet weather continues”

A brisk southwesterly flow is expected to develop, keeping temperatures above if not well above average, especially across England Wales and Northern Ireland.

It will also bring plenty of rain to all parts. Once again sunshine totals should be close to average but it could be a little dull at times towards the southwest.

Not even close.

And there was a forecast he did a month ago that was out of date before he even published it.

[Stuart]

Temperatues above the seasonal average.

A return to mild and unsettled weather is expected to predominate this period but there should be some drier spells of weather, especially in the south.

Last month ranks as the joint third warmest October (along with 2005) with mean temperatures across the UK 2.2 deg C above average. There is the possibility that this could yet become the warmest year on record, following on from the warmest May to October.

The recent "cold snap" might put paid to that, but the Met Office's winter forecast for 2006/7 does suggest that temperatures are likely to be near to if not warmer than average for much of the winter. It may well cool off late in the season.

Monday 6th to Sunday 13th November

“Mild with rain in the South”

There is an end in sight to the settled weather of late. This week will bring the first proper rain to most parts for quite some time with rain moving south during the middle of the week. It will at least ease the overnight frost and fog, at least for a time.

Temperatures are not likely to change too much across England and Wales - remaining around 11 or 12 Celsius for much of the week. The recent mild spell in Scotland and Northern Ireland is likely to give way to rather more seasonal conditions. Highs nearer 8 or 9 Celsius are more likely here by the end of the week.

High pressure does look set to build quickly from the south later on in the week bringing a settled weekend with moist Atlantic winds bringing outbreaks of rain to the northwest.

Monday 13th October to Sunday 19th November

“Sunshine and frost”

The south may well remain largely dry for much of this week with temperatures returning towards the seasonal average and local overnight frosts returning.

The northern half of the UK will probably be rather more prone to a mobile southwesterly flow bringing above average amounts of rainfall. Sunshine totals should be close to the average for the time of year.

Monday 20th to Sunday 3rd December

“Unsettled for most”

Low pressure is expected to lie to the southwest of Iceland and this should feed an unsettled west to southwesterly flow across most parts.

I suspect that temperatures, rainfall and sunshine totals are likely to be close to the seasonal average with Northern Ireland probably getting the wettest weather. The sunniest skies should be over the northeast of England.

Will the weather encourage you to hit the high street or stay at home and do your Christmas shopping online?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Weather-history]

Monday 13th to Sunday 19th November

“Sunshine and frost”

The south may well remain largely dry for much of this week with temperatures returning towards the seasonal average and local overnight frosts returning.

The northern half of the UK will probably be rather more prone to a mobile southwesterly flow bringing above average amounts of rainfall. Sunshine totals should be close to the average for the time of year.

I don't know why Everton bothers!

[Somerset Squall]

Monday 13th to Sunday 19th November

"Sunshine and frost"

The south may well remain largely dry for much of this week with temperatures returning towards the seasonal average and local overnight frosts returning.

The northern half of the UK will probably be rather more prone to a mobile southwesterly flow bringing above average amounts of rainfall. Sunshine totals should be close to the average for the time of year.

I don't know why Everton bothers!

It appears he is there simply to entertain us- nothing else!

[Stuart]

Temperatures remain average for this time of year.

After an unsettled start, quieter weather is expected to develop from the south. Temperatures look set to fall back towards average values bringing an increasing risk of frost.

Now that the Christmas lights have been switched on in many areas it seems appropriate that we should now get some snow, albeit largely restricted to the Scottish mountains.

We had a little of all sorts of weather last week with frost and dense fog patches causing problems early on. There were also some good spells of warm sunshine, especially in the south. We finished the week with strong winds stripping leaves from the trees. We had gusts as high as 80mph in Scotland on Saturday.

There is a trend towards cooler weather over this coming period with an increasing risk of night frosts during any quieter spells of weather.

<DIV class=contentinfobox>

Monday 13th to Sunday 19th November

“Bright and breezy - expect strong winds”

The week ahead does look pretty unsettled. Bright and breezy should be a fair description of the weather in the early part of the week with showery outbreaks mainly confined to the south.

Monday 20th to Sunday 26th November

“Unsettled - threat of frost and heavy rain”

We are likely to take the unsettled weather into this week with temperatures continuing to struggle, especially in the north.

The threat of heavy rain along with some snow will stay with us and we will almost certainly have some frosts and icy roads to watch out for during any clearer spells.

Monday 27th to Sunday 10th December

“Temperatures remain average - chance of some sunshine”

In a mobile westerly flow, temperatures are expected to be close to if not a little above average across the southern half of the UK. It may be the middle of December before temperatures finally recover in the north.

There is a hint towards a drier spell of weather for most of us but it does seem likely that west will be best for sunshine.

Will the milder weather continue as Christmas approaches?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

Edited November 13, 2006 by Stuart H

[Stuart]

Cold start for some - should become increasingly mild.

It is going to remain unsettled over the next few weeks. After a rather cold start for some at first, it should become increasingly mild.

I'd like to think that the water companies are happy with the amount of rainfall that most of us have encountered over the last couple of months. No doubt the industry will be pleased to know that there is still plenty more on the way.

Likewise, the higher ground of Scotland and Northern Ireland received snow at the end of last week (with sleet to lower levels). It did cause a few problems on the roads but will have been welcomed by the Scottish skiing industry.

A brisk west to north westerly flow will feed across the UK over the next few weeks. This slightly milder air blowing in from the Atlantic will allow temperatures to nudge up a touch but this means the weather will generally be rather unsettled.

Monday 20th to Sunday 26th November

“Bright and breezy - expect strong winds”

The week starts on a very unsettled note - gales which buffeted the UK on Sunday may still linger around for some. The southeast of England will stay wet and windy for part of Monday and the winds across northern Scotland will remain strong with severe gales. Gales could also funnel through the Forth Clyde Valley as well. Elsewhere, it will be bright with blustery showers and some snow over the northern hills.

By Tuesday, severe gales in the far north will have eased a little but it will still be another windy day. More blustery showers will abound, perhaps wintry over the Pennines and the Scottish hills. Feeling chillier, with the best of any sunny weather to be found in the southeast.

Wednesday and Thursday will see the sunnier skies across northern Scotland extend further south into northernmost England too. But elsewhere the weather will stay windy and wet with heavy rain at times and perhaps a significant snowfall over the northern hills.

For Friday the windy theme continues. In fact, severe gales could well return, and storm force winds could arrive over the weekend. There will still be plenty of heavy showers - some of them wintry.

Across the week, temperatures will be around average, but it will feel cold in the wind - especially in the mornings across northern Britain where overnight frost and icy roads are more likely.

Monday 27th to Sunday 3rd December

“A mild theme but plenty of rain”

A brisk westerly flow will bring plenty of rain across the UK with the wettest weather likely to be across northwest Scotland where well above average totals are expected.

It will at least be mild. The wintry weather should become a distant memory. There should be some decent sunny spells in between the rain, especially in sheltered northern parts.

Monday 4th to Sunday 17th December

“Temperatures remain average - chance of some sunshine”

A north westerly flow may well develop which will edge those temperatures back down towards the seasonal norm.

There is a likely chance we will have sunshine and showers for much of this period bringing typically seasonal weather to all parts of the UK. It is possible that East Anglia could have some lively downpours at times.

As the party season gets into full swing, is it now time to purchase a David Beckham-style cardigan

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml