Sst's And Sea Ice - Trends

[The Enforcer]

Hi SM. One could almost be forgiven for thinking that the north pole was on the move - towards the UK. Seriously, though, more ice, more snow, cooler SSTs - something's definitely going on in that area.

It's typical that as soon as the press get hold of a story, the reverse starts to happen. All this hysteria about the ice caps disappearing and suddenly ice reformation steps up. Good old mother nature.

[SMU]

Hi SM. One could almost be forgiven for thinking that the north pole was on the move - towards the UK. Seriously, though, more ice, more snow, cooler SSTs - something's definitely going on in that area.

It's typical that as soon as the press get hold of a story, the reverse starts to happen. All this hysteria about the ice caps disappearing and suddenly ice reformation steps up. Good old mother nature.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ice caps Shrinking???? Nah just relocating to the North Sea, Channel & Eastern Atlantic..... :lol:

S

[The Enforcer]

With their track record, perhaps the media should release a story with a headline "UK to have mildest winter ever" or "no snow for UK ever again"?

[West is Best]

Hi SM. One could almost be forgiven for thinking that the north pole was on the move - towards the UK. Seriously, though, more ice, more snow, cooler SSTs - something's definitely going on in that area.

It's typical that as soon as the press get hold of a story, the reverse starts to happen. All this hysteria about the ice caps disappearing and suddenly ice reformation steps up. Good old mother nature.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is rather an exaggeration. When one heads into October in the northern hemisphere one expects the ice caps to start growing again. It would be seriously bizarre if they didn't. All very normal, and in no way a contradiction of the major problems of year on year ice shrinkage.

WIB

[Gray-Wolf]

Another though that I've had cause to post in another discussion is the freezing point of water, both fresh and saline. The 'fresh water' will freeze at a relatively 'higher' temp. so any meltwater pooling around the ice cap WILL freeze more quickly than the surrounding , more saline, waters. The new 'Russian Straights' have been ice free for a few years now and I expect are well 'mixed' with the saltwater.

In my world rapid pack ice growth is an indicater of large summer melts in that area. :lol:

[Frozen Lands]

Another though that I've had cause to post in another discussion is the freezing point of water, both fresh and saline. The 'fresh water' will freeze at a relatively 'higher' temp. so any meltwater pooling around the ice cap WILL freeze more quickly than the surrounding , more saline, waters. The new 'Russian Straights' have been ice free for a few years now and I expect are well 'mixed' with the saltwater.

In my world rapid pack ice growth is an indicater of large summer melts in that area. :lol:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Would that then mean that there is greater potential for a greater surface area of sea ice? If so, would that not also mean a greater proportion of energy reflected?

[Optimus Prime]

Would that then mean that there is greater potential for a greater surface area of sea ice? If so, would that not also mean a greater proportion of energy reflected?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

More ice-pack and heat energy reflected is one thing but actually getting the heat through the atmosphere back into space is another.

With the atmosphere, everyday getting more and more full of Carbon Dioxide, Methane...ect. Considering we are sending so much CO2 into the atmosphere the heat is finding a hard time escaping through the layer of Carbon Dioxide currently stuck there.

[shuggee]

I don't think anyone's discussed the very +ve anomalies building in the N Sea, or particularly in the Gulf of Bothnia between Finland and Sweden and the Baltic Sea generally.

Curtains for a decent E'ly?

Edited October 3, 2005 by shuggee

[yido]

I don't think anyone's discussed the very +ve anomalies building in the N Sea, or particularly in the Gulf of Bothnia between Finland and Sweden and the Baltic Sea generally.

Curtains for a decent E'ly?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Please forgive me me if I am wrong but is that the first time there has been a -SST anomaly in the mid Atlantic. Over recent weeks the large pool has begun to cool and split and now appears to have a - sst between them. If this is true what would be the reasons for this?

[kold weather]

shuggee,I actually like warmer temps in the north sea,as although that does modify the temps more a potent easterly should still be more then cold enough for snow,even a mild easterly like the feb/March gave plenty of snow showers driving off from the north sea.

See effectivly this increases the laspe rates which in turn helps to cause more instablity and gets that old lake effect snow going.Thats why despite pressure at 1025-1030mbs over the U.K we still had large amounts of snow during Mid-Jan 1987 because the extreme cold air crossed a much warmer body of sea.Now if the north sea is above average but you still got a fairly potent easterly(generally as low as -6/7 would be good enough for heavy snow showers to come off the north sea I reckon)

[Gray-Wolf]

I don't think anyone's discussed the very +ve anomalies building in the N Sea, or particularly in the Gulf of Bothnia between Finland and Sweden and the Baltic Sea generally.

Curtains for a decent E'ly?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Why do people delight in 'keeping me on my toes'today ? my toes weren't built for such punishment.

Thanks for bringing that to our attention Shugs.

[The Enforcer]

This is rather an exaggeration. When one heads into October in the northern hemisphere one expects the ice caps to start growing again. It would be seriously bizarre if they didn't. All very normal, and in no way a contradiction of the major problems of year on year ice shrinkage.

WIB

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I should have learnt by now not to make throw-away remarks when you're about, watching me like a hawk.

It is difficult to argue against the fact that the Arctic ice cap has been on the decline, demonstrated by the emergence of the north-east sea route along the Russian coastline. The media would have you believe, though, that it's about to disappear completely, like next year.

What is puzzling, is the increase in the Greenland sector of the ice sheet, the rate of growth of which is compensating a little for the lack of ice elsewhere. Friday's article in the telegraph compares ice sheets from 1979 and 2005. Whilst the general point is clear and understood, it also shows that the Greenland ice sheet is greater in extent even than in 1979. SM's charts show that the level of Greenland sea ice is significantly above average.

I don't have the expertise to explain why this is happening or what effect it may have on our short-term climate if it continues to build up. However, looking at it from a purely selfish point of view, I would much rather see ice building up around Greenland at the expense of other parts of the Arctic than the other way around.

Edited October 3, 2005 by The Enforcer

[ScottSnow]

I don't think anyone's discussed the very +ve anomalies building in the N Sea, or particularly in the Gulf of Bothnia between Finland and Sweden and the Baltic Sea generally.

Curtains for a decent E'ly?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The Baltic Sea is shallow in comparision to most other seas and oceans and therefore more susceptible to temperatures above the surface, i.e it warms and cools quicker.

[shuggee]

Indeed it is SW. Just struck me as amusing that the common term amongst today's young up here, to describe winter cold, is the saying 'It's Baltic outside'. But a cold anti-cyclone centred over Northern Finland for a few days would certainly wipe out that anomaly.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

The extremely warm conditions out that way of late certainly is not helping things, Moscow had a high of 22C on Saturday, some 10C above what it should be for the time of year.

I also noted the growth of Ice around Greenland too perhaps its on the move!

[cheeky_monkey]

The Baltic Sea is shallow in comparision to most other seas and oceans and therefore more susceptible to temperatures above the surface, i.e it warms and cools quicker.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

spot on..the north sea and baltic are very shallow seas in comparison to the major oceans and can warm and cool very rapidly dependant on weather conditions....for example in early march 1987 temps in the southern north sea were only 2c above freezing after a cold january.

[West is Best]

Yes - it would be good for that to happen again!!

All perfectly normal to happen once every two decades though   

SP

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm afraid that on balance this is all very standard stuff, and rather tedious.

Every year it's the same old story ...

[West is Best]

Happy days!.....

Promising signs in FI - might come true for once

Good to see nice cooling going on in all the vital areas and that any thoughts of too many warm anomalies in the wrong places are looking mistaken.

Roll on winter - it's looking cold, cold, cold

SP

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're such a cold ramper Tamara!

[Schnee]

The signs are promising but i'm refusing to get exited as the great british weather always surprises us somehow.

Chrismas is coming up. Gonna ask santa for a mid atlantic block

[Zerouali lives]

The signs are promising but i'm refusing to get exited as the great british weather always surprises us somehow. 

Chrismas is coming up. Gonna ask santa for a mid atlantic block  

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What a present that would be!

[The Enforcer]

Taken at face value, this looks very encouraging:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-051002.gif

However, when this:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-021006.gif

became this:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-021208.gif

it is pretty clear that the current SST anomaly plot is part of the annual wind-up where the cold/snow prospects for the coming winter always look great in October.

Edited October 4, 2005 by The Enforcer

[shuggee]

Yes - the blues around N Iceland and E Greenland are slowly turning purple

As somebody also pointed out yesterday the mid atlantic +ve anomaly we've been watching for a while has now got a -ve anomaly amongst itself.

[Anti-Mild]

Yes - the blues around N Iceland and E Greenland are slowly turning purple

As somebody also pointed out yesterday the mid atlantic +ve anomaly we've been watching for a while has now got a -ve anomaly amongst itself.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Alright shuggee,

I've been paying close attention to the +ve anomaly in the mid-Atlantic for a while now and although it did get larger, it also got less +ve. It seems now that it has spread out so much that the cold water has a foothold now.

What is of greater concern to me is the +ve anomaly in the English Channel; could we get another Feb 05 event? Surely not!

[shuggee]

I think as SP pointed out yesterday it's worth condidering the surface areas and depths of the sea. The Channel isn't very deep (80-90m) and it surely wouldn't take a lot to change it either way.

[Anti-Mild]

I think as SP pointed out yesterday it's worth condidering the surface areas and depths of the sea.  The Channel isn't very deep (80-90m) and it surely wouldn't take a lot to change it either way.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

A fair point, well made !