BarnetBlizzard
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Posts posted by BarnetBlizzard
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bluearmy Possible the Atlantic jet could fire up and head below the UK into Europe and trap High pressure above us resulting in an Easterly? Or am I living in fantasy land
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Not normally this miserable but I think this has been the worst winter I've ever lived through. Never I have seen so many good charts at day 10-15 turn to mild mush once it gets to day 0. I had a 10 min snow shower in January and that was it.
A mild winter is easier to take when its expected and predicted but this winter has just drained me. It's the hope that kills you.
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nick sussex GEFS mean a slight improvement - more energy disrupting south east. I understand I might be straw clutching...
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It would seem more natural for the low pressure to disrupt southeast, high pressure to meet near Iceland and winds to veer from the East as per my badly drawn red arrows
But the low pressure is absorbed north west (albeit less so than the 0z)
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bluearmy
haha! Ok what about Scrussia - how does that do for us?
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bluearmy If you were to choose a location for the PV to displace to increase chances of a cold spell for the UK, where would it be?
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Low and colder uppers slightly (and I mean slightly) further south on the ECM mean 6z compared to 0z at 72hours.
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11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
at least we are in the raffle and have plenty to watch - been like that for much of this winter though.
I think this sums it up well - not sure I've seen a winter with so many good day 13-15 charts. It feels like we've been in with a chance multiple times but the pieces have not quite fallen in place.
As you said though, we've still got a couple of tickets remaining - lets see if we can win the raffle right at the end.
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The Beast vs the Iberian High, who's going to win?
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That's a lot of snow on the GEM for some central areas.
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Not a bad start on the ICON - energy disrupting south-east. Can we keep a wedge of higher pressure in the area circled?
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6 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
believe me it did go wrong lots of times in the 70s and 80s
True... but it did go very right in a similar set up on one occasion
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For us in the UK the GFS 6z mean is a bit of an improvement in comparison to the 0z mean. More energy sliding SE across UK into Europe - the more the better.
You can bet if we were still in the 70s and 80s then you'd get more energy disrupted south east as we got closer to T0 - unfortunately it's 2024 and what can go wrong normally does.
If i were to look at my glass half full, I'd say we're in with a chance of something exciting in the next 10-12 days.
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1 minute ago, Daniel* said:
Was shown on ECM 12z yesterday but dropped overnight. Clearly NWP are toying with something they don’t yet have a good grip on. Likely MJO related I’d say.
With MJO moving to phase 7 and a relatively strong vortex, you'd hope this could be a realistic possibility.
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I've noticed that wedge of high pressure to our northwest around Iceland being suggested on a few runs. If we can get the wedge there then the low pressure from the Atlantic gets forced south-east and it could bring in easterly winds for a time.
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Easterly incoming on GFS?
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@bluearmy Where can you see the latest MJO forecast early? I keep waiting for this page to update:
CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Madden - Julian Oscillation
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOVBut doesn't normally update till around 2pm
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Is it me or have there been some small upgrades to MJO forecasts in last day or two?
Edit: Just seen Battleground Snow's post agreeing that there has been some amplification in some forecasts towards phases 6 and 7
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51 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
Yeah only Kent and North York Moors got anything significant out of December 2022. Looking at the charts one might think instability would be extensive with features popping up regularly:
When in reality the lack of thermal gradient in the slack flow only results in very localized (but intense) features that don't last particularly long either, often only covering one or two counties.
For the type of trough development many on here are suggesting is possible, i.e. covering large portions of the UK, a far more unstable flow is required. For example, this flow from November 2005. Or progression of a larger trough / low such as the one from Iceland / to our South West could provide the extent of convection required for more widespread snowfall.
Now I'm not suggesting that there wont be any snow chances in the upcoming cold spell. Just that if we end up with a quiet area of low pressure under slack winds then likelihood in building widespread heavy troughs is quite low, as proven by the previous cold spell and December 2022. This is proven by the accumulation charts shown by the GFS/ECM/GEM etc. These are fair in giving an indication of potential and if the slack flow indicated was indicative of heavy trough development then these charts would reflect this and show more extensive snow accumulation. This could still change though. We may still source an active and larger area of low pressure which is certainly possible.
Quite a large of the south east did pretty well from December 2022 cold spell - in fact, it was way better here in north London than BFTE 2018 in terms of snow accumulations.
also feb 2009 had a Thames streamer which I (think) had the met office giving a red warning for the London area due to snow totals
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Not the most popular models, but JMA and Arpege look decent
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Did someone ask for low heights into Europe?