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Paul_1978

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    Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On 12/01/2024 at 20:06, ANYWEATHER said:

    Thank you for your response!  Of course , I'm fimiliar with the Meteorological tools , but at the end of the day it's all guess work, but thanks again for your elaboration.  ☺

    It’s extremely disingenuous to meteorologists to state their profession is all “guesswork”. I’m sure you don’t mean it exactly like that, and there’s better turns of phrase you could use. 

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Model fatigue is well and truly setting in if @bluearmyand @Met4Cast are on the wane. 

    For me it's this - do we all chase cold because we want calm, cold, benign weather? Perhaps so given all the rain and flooding recently. But I think for most of us it's because we want snow, and for many of us our greatest weather memories are 1979, 1982, 1987, 1991, 2013, 2018 to name but a few. Are we getting snow next week? The answer seems to be yes (although we don't know exactly where), so that's a big green tick ✅ 

    Therefore the models are giving us what many of us actually want. I for one am enjoying the ride, and we are only on 10th Jan!

    • Like 23
    • Thanks 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Surprisingly negative vibe from some in here. Models look great this morning if it’s snow you’re after, with the snow line obviously yet to be determined, but the broad theme is the same. 

    Perhaps a relaxation of cold the week after but even then we can’t be sure - the cold may even hang on - and there’s still February to look forward to yet. 

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, Martz86 said:

    It would be nice to have a model group just for those that know what their talking about, reading through this one is very confusing, shame really as I quite like reading the knowledgeable posts but it's becoming tedious filtering through it all. 

    Not if you mute the right people, and it makes for much more pleasant viewing.

    • Like 3
    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     

    1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

    Gfs o6z terrible🤷‍♂️!!!!!

     

    1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Yes, its all going wrong now - very wrong.

    Am I in some kind of parallel universe here? I think most of us want snow, not something cold and dry. Lots of runs are showing snow for next week (exact placement to be determined). We know that there is likely to be a relaxation of cold after this before the next cold chase into Feb. Am I missing something here? If you are wanting snow I don't see there is a lot to complain about - it's quite exciting in my view.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Cold air coming back - it would be a historic event 

    VERY interesting output - as the low approaches from the south-west by T+192, there is clearly a lot of precipitation which could get interesting for many as it bumps into the cold air. THEN as it passes through by T+222 the cold air appears to start to dig back south again. Could be a snow-rain-snow or even a continual snow event for 24/36 hours or more. 

    We often talk about showers not cutting the mustard but this could be the holy grail of a frontal snow event. The million dollar question will be where the snow/rain line is and of course there is a long way to go before that is anywhere near being nailed down.

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

     

    Not sure I've seen a better one in a semi-reliable timeframe?

    image.thumb.png.e0f02522cb269189eb3270365eb50b14.png

     

    The question is for most of us, will such a pattern give us showers with negligible accumulations, or something frontal and more prolonged? Too early for the detail for sure, but broadly speaking?

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, John Cox said:

    I too was surprised to see this narrative on their website today.

    I have great respect for their accuracy but just wonder where they got this one today from:

    "NEXT WEEKEND: Current indications suggest that next weekend, there may be a change with our weather becoming milder and with rain developing."

    The low to the south west as it moves in - forecast probably correct for Ireland, whilst mainland UK remains colder. 

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    The FAX charts look mainly dry unfortunately. Even the Met Office site only shows cloud cover but no precipitation!

    Totally expected - there’s never much precipitation associated with high pressure. Interest comes as low pressures potentially starts to encroach into cold air the week after. 

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