[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

I’m about 3 miles outside the amber

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Warning area from the MO looks well represented here

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Spah1

Bank. Wonderful chart. Doubt it will happen but good to look at

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Aaarrrggghhh. The southern snow watch thread, sorry I mean mod thread is so annoying. I get most members are from the south but it would be nice to give a true reflection of the output. I have no clue whether the UKMO and GFS 12z’s give us here in Yorkshire any snow. The boooooooms and upgrade comments aren’t helpful. It’s all about snow for the south. 

[Model banter and emotions]

Wow. Check relevant thread. But I’m suprised NWS hasn’t posted!!! Must be behind his sofa still. Very interesting 12’s coming up as per 

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

The way the flight is climbing it’s off somewhere else. Up to 13,000 feet as I type

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I blame Northwestsnow. I mean, since he had an interaction with some random bloke in McDonald’s while looking at Meteociel, there’s been a McFlurry of downgrades

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

BANK!!

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Phew just finished the 15 pages. Excellent stuff from you all. 
And wow at the latest GFS run. This chart is the EXACTA type of chart we’ve been waiting for. A certain someone gets a lot of stick, but apparently he’s correctly predicted the last 5 out of 3 winters and 6 out of 4 summers. 
 

Hold onto your hats gang I feel the rest of the winter is going to be a MADDEN!!!!

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Icon already an upgrade at 120, coeaner heights Is everyone ready for an afternoon of epic charts - because that’s what’s coming.

Winter - it’s on its way ️️️

Mmm yes I agree, but to me a pretty underwhelming MO update for next week. Although the way the media go totally OTT it’s hardly suprising. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

EC 240

 

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

52 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

That's a very nice update.  Removed low probability of severe..to colder likely to dominate.   To my eye its a way of opening a door for further upgrades as low probability removed we can deal with severity later.  

That’s exactly how I see it. No way will they commit to anything other than colder at this stage. And that’s down to the media overhyping their words. (Or us)

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

You and you wheels.. can you now tighten the wheel nuts please 

Never mind wheels,  some on here could do with stabilisers this morning. 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

16 minutes ago, AWD said:

Agreed!  The wife said much the same to me last night.

And mine. But I told her there’s no way I’m doing it twice

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its pretty much porn at this point..

the slower evolution seems to produce even better results...

 

Is that what you really watch behind the sofa?

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Oh p29 you absolute nutter

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Lovely here at 144h.

We have lift off

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

A woman called the beeb today to say she’s heard there’s some serious blocking being shown. Don’t worry, there isn’t……….

 

 

Fully expecting a humdinger 18z too. I’ve heard the 18z has already been knocking them back

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

15 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

9 really is the pic of the bunch  

Yes it certainly is

 

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Dropped the ‘reduced chance of Atlantic mild and wet’ comment - probably felt not worth mentioning 

Yes that’s a positive change. But interestingly they’ve kept the low chance of severe cold. So they think that is worth mentioning. Interesting times ahead

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Yes under a UK high with temperatures around 3c by day and just below freezing at night.

I’d take that over this relentless wind and rain. Sick of it now. Hopefully after that we get even colder with snow. 

[Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards]

6 minutes ago, cheese said:

Can confirm, thunder and lightning here. CGs included. A thunderstorm in December is the last thing I expected!

That was quite something here in west Leeds. Horrendous wind and rain accompanying thunder and lightning.

Thought I was going to lose my tree. 10 minutes later it’s so calm, barely a leaf is moving. Glad I got in 5 minutes previous with the dogs

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Not the best ECM Little sign of amplification..it always seems one step forward two steps back..on a plus side the gfs ens..probably the coldest they have been,ICON is a nice little run also

Yes just looking at the GEFS and it seems the control knows the score

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

36 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

So close to an old skool brutal January easterly here on the Icon 12z.

Scandi goes into the freezer. 

 

37 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

So close to an old skool brutal January easterly here on the Icon 12z.

Scandi goes into the freezer. 

Some seriously cold air now showing to our NE.

Just looking through the 6z members of the GEFS look at the following for a cold pool. And the NH view of simple obliteration. Tick tick…..

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

difficult to be precise but -5c max temps, nightime anywhere between -5c and -15c depending on location wind speed and cloud

Roll it on a day and look at this. Wow. 
Sadly it’s just one member that’s 372 hours away so it’s just a dream. But I love looking at charts like this