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The Bevmeister

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    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    40 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

    Bev I would say model agreement is actually already higher than average due to the ssw, take a look at the mean anomalies of the big 3 ensemble sets at 360(!) hours out…

    EPS

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    GEPS

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    GEFS

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    I would hazard that the ssw is responsible for this agreement. The MO often state that a super strong OR super weak PV increases the general accuracy of trop forecasts. The above is testament to that.

    Hope that helps and agree your question and others of new/learning/any members should be addressed to foster cohesion and togetherness on this thread.

    Thanks ‘Uncertainty’ for taking the time to go back and look at my original question and provide an answer.  Hope it helps a few other rank amateurs who may not have the confidence to post, and also help some of the other experienced users realise that their knowledge shared is very much appreciated 👍🏻

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

    I’m surprised by the lack of enthusiasm for this spell on this thread. We spend years looking for charts like this and now they’re coming there’s barely any interest.
     

    I looked back through the 2018 threads and the difference is remarkable: joy, anticipation, camaraderie, detailed analysis. This time I’m sorry to say it’s been cynicism, doubt and a general feeling of ‘whatever’.
     

    This is not a diss at any one person, on the contrary, it is a call to arms: Let’s inject some passion and excitement (not to be confused with hyperbole or inaccuracy mind) into this thread. We may be looking at an exceptional late Feb/early March spell (as many of us have been suggesting for months) and our commentary will be vital for many learners and observers looking for the truth amongst the ridiculous headlines and naysayers. As I have stressed before, the internet is quick to judge this thread and it’s reputation has taken a hiding in recent years.  We spend enough time on here… let’s make it worthwhile 🙂

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    First up: The icon has snow showers peppering the east coast early next week. It has sharpened the initial amplification as the day has gone on, the jet angle is now near vertical.

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    This is a key component to a snowy easterly, and we should look closely at the gem and gfs to see if they can replicate or outdo it. The latter was a bit nondescript earlier. I have a feeling it’ll flip to an icon-esque outcome. We’ll know soon. 
    Thanks all

    Josh

    To be fair, those of us who are very amateur but very interested, and often add a question on here usually get ignored by the more learned users (Me-page 127) so I’m not surprised there isn’t much enthusiasm generally

    • Like 6

    Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    The snow and cold ultimately isn't directly the result of the SSW, but the pattern that delivers it very likely is.
    In tandem with an already weak tropospheric and stratospheric polar vortex, and an MJO that helps too.

    Labelling patterns with 100% certainty is not possible, but the least you could say is it is very consistent with patterns that follow SSWs about 35 days after they have happened.

    So it is historically consistent with the way models have appeared after such an event then I guess.  Great answer and thank for upping my very amateur knowledge ??

    • Like 2

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    I have to say the met office weather app has been complete garbage over the past 8 weeks (since winter started) especially when it comes to snow predictions for my area.  Yesterday it was forecast with a double snow icon for around 3 hours, but two hours before it changed to cloudy with a light breeze, and the same again today.  Same thing happened early Dec.  Surely even the meto can virtually ‘nowcast’ and get it right occasionally

    Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    much love to iceni xxx

     

     

    southernman just called and said very large flakes falling at reedham

     

    edit - oh that's weird, when he called it was just drizzly rain stuff, but reading that its snowing in Beccles i looked again and its now snowing nicely here and settling everywhere even the road, but it can't have started very long ago.

    If u check wunderground radar it looks as though we a going to stay 'clipped' for a little while

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