[Worryingly Wet & Worryingly Sunless]

 CryoraptorA303 Agree Peroni is rank  and you have to drink it from an awful glass, I think it’s a look at me I’m loaded drink which actually makes me think look at me I’m a cockle. 
Amstel all day long over that rubbish 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Just to add it was so heavy the main road was like a river, to my astonishment I watched the 6.30pm bbc forecast and the lady said the south coast had been dull with some drizzle. That was some  pretty impressive drizzle. 
I wonder if they are embarrassed by giving such bad forecasts, if I did such a bad job I would.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

This morning for some reason I decided to watch Carol and her forecast without checking the radar, big mistake. Carol said there would be a few isolated showers on the south coast so I drove half an hour to where I’d be working. Just as I arrived in Alresford the heavens opened, i thought it must be one of the isolated showers Carol had mentioned, checked the radar and was shocked to see the isolated shower was indeed a massive blob of rain sat over central southern England that wasn’t going anywhere fast. The isolated shower finally cleared at 1pm.

cracking forecast Carol.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

Blowing a gale from the east today in February and by 2pm I was out working in just a light jumper, things have changed 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

spoon that, I’m fully expecting a hot summer, time to move North.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Kentspur yeeasshhh and it keeps getting put back and suddenly it’s March 

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Where is everyone? - i know the means are still flat and its only a couple of long range ops but when has this thread ever not gone mad over the aforementioned? in fact it was busier the other day when flat with a big Greenland PV was showing practically unanimously across all suites.

In the storm thread 

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

11 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

My son is going to the game this afternoon with his grandad (as usual) half  his under 9s football team will be there too. They had some shocking conditions at times at games there this season. This afternoon looks like a similar occurrence.

Can the stadium fit that many people?

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

The EC46 looks much improved to me compared to the last couple of days. More retrogression to the north west and leaning back towards the seasonals in terms of anomalies. 

EC46 is a really good model that never gets it wrong, honestly guv

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Troubleatmill said:

Not sure what you are looking at buddy, the UK looks mostly dry on those three ens members?

Look at his location and look where the snow is, pretty obvious my friend 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

What an absolute pile of donkey lemon, 6 frosts and no breakdown. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Rob 79812010 said:

I'm still a bit of a novice but what am I missing here. The gfs chart looks amazing to me. Is it the lack of snow??

Yes

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Sweatyman said:

You watch it'll be up to Brum by the 18z

And Spain in the Morning 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

On the contrary GEFS has increased the chances of this moving north. 

 

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

On the contrary GEFS has increased the chances of this moving north. 

Exactly, might just reach us

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, IDO said:

A glancing blow:

Over 6 hours of snow, I’d take that 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Lampostwatcher said:

M4 south 

Perfect

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Squashed quickly though 

It’s getting closer 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, danm said:

No, a trough formed under low heights and pushed south, it then developed into a broader circulation over the English channel, pumping it up with more moisture, which spun up an area of heavy snow across the south:

 

If you look back at the weather forecasts at the time, nothing like this was forecast until about 24/36 hours beforehand. I remember the short term nature of it at the time, noteworthy considering how much snow fell, particularly over parts of Berkshire, Hampshire and Oxfordshire. Less in the SE but even we got a few inches out of it. Places like Basingstoke got nearly a foot If i'm remembering correctly. 

Basingstoke came to a Stand still the day I flew off to Montreal for my yearly snow hunt

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The snow chance in northern England showing nicely with the fax chart at T120 

And look how far south the lows are. Dull

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Looks dry and cold for 5/6 days, how disappointing, the low to the south stays over France and no fun and games. What’s the point of extending the cold spell  but having no snow?  2 more Frosts before it warms up.  I’d rather it was mild throughout at least I won’t freeze my nuts off at work 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I guess you are not believing in this? 

What he means is fry for him, looks good for us

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

7 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

National emergency and army called In. Meanwhile us northerners will have to wear another layer and maybe some gloves

Northerners are proper hard

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

7 minutes ago, fromey said:

the gold line represents the boundary if i remember right  and the most likely scenario is i think along the M4 corridor, maybe a little further north or south.  the problem as i explained above is the split jet they dont know how its going to interact with the southern arm yet. writing off anything because of one run is ludicrous, if the experts are saying they dont know then anything can still happen.

The mean is in the English Channel 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Should though shunt away southward next frame.

Yep next frame snow shoukd be coming back south, all good 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

BBC next week for the big event 

always 2/3 degrees higher than  other forecasts