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knocker

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Posts posted by knocker

    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by knocker

    13 minutes ago, LRD said:

    They have indeed. And that insight is helpful for me cos I'm not brilliant at reading those particular charts.

    They're not the only anomaly charts out there either, of course. Meteociel like their anomaly charts. Whichever anomaly model is used, they're so often misinterpreted

    The 500mb charts with just the anomalies without the contour lines are about as useful as a chocolate fireguard imho

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    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by knocker

    56 minutes ago, TEITS said:

    Due to the slightest changes in the earlier time frames having a big difference in the final outcome i.e BFTE or High sat over the UK, I feel the chart you posted is about as reliable as asking the GFS for a monthly forecast!

    Those anomalies are okay for predicting the weather patterns for a continent but pretty useless for an Island like the UK . We are talking about the slightest change in positioning of the high pressure bringing ice days and heavy snow from the E to calm conditions underneath a high bringing frost at night.

    Of course they not useless when it comes to the UK. They are designed to give a pretty good idea of the 500mb upper air pattern within which the detail of the det. runs should be operating. They are not meant to pick up daily variations, or as is frequently the case in here, six hourly ones. In a nutshell they are frequently misused.

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    Model discussion highlights

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    One of those situations where the models play variance but unusually it is UKMO at the opposite end, GFS as normal one extreme, ECM in the middle to an extent, the divergence taking place at 120 hrs, which is just about in the reliable. I would expect some convergence in the next 24 hours, but may take a couple of days. Will GFS back away from its strong ridge to the NE development, or will the UKMO do an about turn.

    As often the case we tend to see a middle ground, and this would be high pressure ridging and building into the Uk anchoring east, ending with what some call the sceuro ridge, chilly but not the deep cold some may want, whilst it will mean often dry calm weather away from the NW.

    I don't follow why the UKMO is relevant to the medium term solution as that rather depends of the movement of the tpv lobe moving into Greenalne post t156, resulting in a pumped up jet and amplification of the ridge north east across Europe. To my simple mind it is pinning down the energy flows around the subsequent Euro high and thus pinning down the detail is quite a headache and at this range and best treated with great caution


    Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4799780
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    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by knocker

    18 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    One of those situations where the models play variance but unusually it is UKMO at the opposite end, GFS as normal one extreme, ECM in the middle to an extent, the divergence taking place at 120 hrs, which is just about in the reliable. I would expect some convergence in the next 24 hours, but may take a couple of days. Will GFS back away from its strong ridge to the NE development, or will the UKMO do an about turn.

    As often the case we tend to see a middle ground, and this would be high pressure ridging and building into the Uk anchoring east, ending with what some call the sceuro ridge, chilly but not the deep cold some may want, whilst it will mean often dry calm weather away from the NW.

    I don't follow why the UKMO is relevant to the medium term solution as that rather depends of the movement of the tpv lobe moving into Greenalne post t156, resulting in a pumped up jet and amplification of the ridge north east across Europe. To my simple mind it is pinning down the energy flows around the subsequent Euro high and thus pinning down the detail is quite a headache and at this range and best treated with great caution

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    Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by knocker

    1 hour ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

    There is a big difference between moaning about the weather (which is what the moan threads are for) and trying to make others feel bad for liking a particular weather type. Nobody should be guilt tripped into having different weather preferences to you. This applies to those who guilt trip in both the summer and winter.

    In the years I was a regular poster on this site this discussion cropped up at frequent intervals. I feel this would be pretty much resolved if the MOD thread was renamed to ,'chasing cold - winter 2022-23' which, when all is said and done, is the raison d'etre of the thread anyway

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    Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Thank you @mushymanrob @Scott Ingham , this forum are some of the first people where I've felt truly appreciated so it means a lot from all of you. Tells you a lot about how many people know I like the weather when my Physics teacher called me the "Resident meteorologist" in parents evening yesterday. Can't wait till Summer after my May and June exams with around 2 months off, prime time for some Storm Chasing.

    Your lucky I was the 'Resident Sarky Sod' but hey that was in another lifetime😉

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    Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

    I'm bored of looking at the MAD thread now. I enter and scroll down not understanding a thing as most posts are about sst's and goodness knows what else that isn't model related. That complicating stuff really needs a thread of it's own!

    After a quick run through the posts the quote that flashed through my mind was, "Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?". I know not why 😎

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