Ladyofthestorm
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Posts posted by Ladyofthestorm
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Hi all
I was reading Nick's very interesting article about a final stratospheric warming relatively soon.
When I googled on Google Scholar I actually stumbled across the article in Nature.
Stratospheric Final Warmings fall into two categories with different evolution over the course of the year
WWW.NATURE.COM
The transition of the northern stratospheric circulation from winter to summer comes in two flavours, a smooth late one governed by radiation or an...It does make enlightening reading .
Early/ Mid March final ( sudden ) earnings are quite rare. I stumbled a good analogue date of a final early-ish warming in late Feb 2008.
Spring arrived late that year ( my first year on Skye) , but dry sunny and bitterly cold NLy right through to May.
I would not bet against a dry cold/ cool spring in 2024.
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Remind me of late winter Early spring 2020.
@Weather-history I'm sure lockdown part 1 was a pleasant meteorological affair ?
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Ok let's look at the ensembles . The first one for Scotland , west coast weather part of the UK because it's right in the firing line of the gulf stream .
Minus 5 uppers and consistently so . That's not mild.
Next one to avoid the north of Scotland bias . South Yorkshire again look at those minus 5 uppers .
I definitely wouldn't throw in any towels snow is great. Ice is a pain in the neck.
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WYorksWeather it's too early to call winter over, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2013, 2018 , and 2021 some pretty significant snow events in March and into April.
We often have a back end loaded winter . The PV is there to be stretched and distorted .
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Dennis and Kirkcaldy Weather too
I agree with you. Writing off more any cold weather is a full hardy narrative. Especially given the teleconnections.
Just because an SSW didn't reverse the winds doesn't mean to say it can't stretch or distort the PV.
It happened already in January
You have to remember easterlies are historically rare for us.
WYorksWeather trend is your friend. Down it goes
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Badders potentially yes
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SSW has not happened yet and it can take 10 to 14 days for its affects to be felt.
The medium range models are notorious for being sluggish picking up the impacts of an SSW .
@Cambrian has the right ideas using the GEFS longer range . Look at the trend rather than each individual model run. Look at the patterns . Blocking to North and West. Low pressure to the east and south.
Winter ain't done with us just yet.
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I'm so surprised nobody has posted up Amy Butler's latest tweet about a prospective double SSW event
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I have to admit I took a step back from the models on early February.
I had a look at the ensembles for my area and it finally looks like the GFS is figuring it out the SSW event ramifications later on.
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I'm always suspicious of the GFS spuriously throwing out Atlantic based lows , signally wind rain and mild , when the NAO would suggest otherwise. Neutral possibly slightly negative doesn't tie in with those areas of low pressure.
I know some people have knocked it this year, suggesting that it can't be used on its own, but in hindsight it's been a very good predictor / indicator of whether the Atlantic is a big influencer or not of our weather this winter, especially for us in the North.
My suggestion is take the models with a huge pinch of salt post 150 hrs ,
I think the NLy blocking has this.
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- Popular Post
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Take heed. The NAO ensembles suggest a
tumble towards neutral then negative into early Feb. The Atlantic storm belt should grind to a halt.
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18 minutes ago, Wade said:
Indeed you will get badly hit, not once but twice, I advise you don't go camping for a while, you might get blown away. Looks serious for a lot of people but especially people in your location where it is exposed to the Atlantic.
It more for securing livestock fences and feeding extra to the animals. I'm a fair weather camper.
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Does anyone have an update on the wind gust map for 12 am to 6 pm Monday morning fur the Western Isles?
We looked like we would miss it as we were right in the eye of the storm , but it looks like it will be 40 to 50 miles both of us the centre so will get a pummelling.
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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:
The CFS is looking nae bad in F1!
…so much for global warming eh! 
I hope Mr Frosty you do know the difference between weather and climate. Lol
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1 minute ago, festivalking said:
Love the hebrides go all the time never seen it in the snow though. Seeing loads of photos of the islands covered. Guessing this northerly set up is the perfect one for you.
The mood music on the models and here are favoring the potential of the scandi heights. An easterly over the hebrides is password for sun sun sun!!! If you can't have snow the next best thing.
Good luck with the stormy weather up there next week!
Bless you. Yes we always missed the snow events of 2018 . Beasterly beautiful and cold and sunny.
I'm sure winter will reload again
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14 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
Bit of a chicken and egg situation really.
Trop led patterns triggered the strat warming but then the warming weakened the SPV allowing trop led patterns to amplify a high into Greenland, the weak lower strat perhaps aiding in this.
In essence - Without a strong SPV overriding tropospheric drivers, those drivers were able to do their thing to produce the blocking, despite trop led drivers being the reason for the weak vortex in the first place..
Wibbly wobbly..
Precarious if you ask me. I'm waiting for a NLy reload!
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Last night the NOAA ensemble's were bullish about a longer term positive NAO bringing wet Windy, mild and wild weather to the UK.
I've noticed that sound if the ensemble runs are gunning to go negative.
Watch that for becoming a trend
It's not often you see such a strong HP system just collapse the way it is doing.
Winters not over.
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A good call from Tamara 10 or so days ago.
True NLy for us with some of the deepest snow recorded for a very long time.
I really don't think this is the end of it this winter.
I think an SSW is imminent and the easterlies envitable.
Dry cold sunny Spring for NW Highlands I think.
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1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
Yes indeed, the point I believe has been laboured about taking individual runs as ‘correct’
IMHO There is a very decent chance of high impactual snow events for the UK ahead. Where gets it is still to be sorted but the adjustment south is under way
BFTP
The old adage , the devil is in the detail!
But conditions are primed and loaded. I think the M4 corridor is in for a huge shock next week. In the north we are ready!
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1 minute ago, Weather Monkey said:
I took a gander at the Model Discussion Thread back in late December 2009 to see how things compared. The discussions were quite similar to the last few days here but one thing I noticed, and l do remember from lurking back then, was having model agreement at 96hrs. This morning I highlighted comments from the pros over the pond in the NCEP discussion that "The UKMET was removed on day 4 due to its significant divergence from the rest of the guidance regarding the shortwave energy in the East Pac/Northwest U.S." Day 4 is of course 96h.
So, where are we at as things stand at 72h and 96 hours from today's runs? Are the models in agreement at this early juncture?
ECM+72h
+96h
EC Mean
+72h
+96h
GFS (I could only get the 18z so times adjusted to 66h & 90h accordingly)
+66h
+90h
GFS Mean
+66h
+90h
UKMO
+72h
+96h
GEM
+72h
+96h
And because IanF used to mention the JMA, here they are for the same time frames.JMA
+72h
+96h
Finally we have the MetO faxes. The 84h+ hadn't updated on Meteociel when I looked so we can directly compare Sat 12z.
9.1 12z +72h
9.1 0z +84h
9.1 0z +96h
And as a bonus here's tonight's ECM Op run in gif form.
The EC Op looks appears so well supported by the Mean that I had to check I hadn't saved the image twice. As for the rest, they have similarities at 72h but more differences by 96h. Events over the pond at that short timeframe make it difficult to call. Fascinating to watch though.
Fabulous post!
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23 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
It’s over….no doubt about it…it’s over…….barr the 18z….which shows that a daily run means diddly squat. I read John Holmes’ post earlier today….many must have….and to me the ‘singular’ very changeable gfs rubs are garbage.
nothing is sorted yet, details are certainly not bagged….and raging SW’lies are way down the list
BFTP
I hope your leg pulling. Lol
Potentially we have some pretty good conditions for snow, I would bet on it even in the South.
There is absolutely nothing in the teleconnections to suggest anything mild at all .
We have an elongated PV and it's suffering big time. I'm suspecting we will see a technical SSW finish the job like 2013 soon.
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16 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
Unless people were expecting weeks on end of cold like 1963 people should be happy! A week of cold and snow in this country is a big deal
Absolutely agree with you 100% with your comment. After early next week's colder plunge we should be looking towards what the SSW that is forecast will do to the PV and the models haven't got a clue. The NAO has been a good indicator too. So watch that as well. To be honest this Jan block has been forecast by the CFS in December .
So nothing outrageous or unexpected is going on.
The cold needs to get here first, so it's here.
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3 hours ago, ICE COLD said:
Well something happened to the gfs and I don’t like it . Ramping up the pv
Good as we have another elongation of the PV coming up by another SSW!
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Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
For us in the far North West of Scotland a very interesting and very long winter.
Started with Storm Babet in October and carried on relentlessly , very few anticyclonic episodes for us to calm things down . Wet windy and mild autumn . December a brief cold spell early on then mild and unsettled.
However January was interesting . 2 significant snow events lasting 5 to 7 days each.
February was similar a bit of a non event very cloudy and dull often unsettled.
Can I include March? Our sunniest month and driest too . Coolish but pleasant.
April I'm writing off.
January taster A proper mid Winter.