Kirkcaldy Weather
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Posts posted by Kirkcaldy Weather
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Though the main part of the MJO has began crossing the Maritimes there will still be enough connecting energy within the Indian Ocean likely via Kelvin Wave[s] activity which will generate a cyclone (possibly tropical) in the Mozambique chanel, this will move into Mozambique in the next few days bringing significant rains and high flash flood risk before it recurves back into the Indian Ocean.
*Since typing this post this system has been given tropical storm classification with the name Filipo.
No real surprise seeing such an active pattern particularly across the Eastern portion of the Indian Ocean given the higher amplitude passage of the MJO.
This will generate further cyclones again these are likely to be tropical in nature with one close to the Northwestern Coast of Australia and at least one other which moves into the Arafura Sea and potentially sits in the waters with regions between Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Ahead of these cyclonic developments we have an ongoing significant rainfall event in Western Australia.
This will move around coastal Southern Australia with some signals for a renewal of intensity as it moves up the Southeast and East coastal regions perhaps Sydney at risk.
With the MJO continuing to move over the Maritimes at a high amplitude this will enhance the tropical convection bringing high rainfall amounts across parts of Southeast Asia and Melanesia.
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Some records from this weeks patterns which I've covered in extensive detail.
Significant record this as it is an ALL TIME snowfall record ... very impressive for March
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Some records from this weeks patterns.
Significant record this one as it is an ALL TIME snowfall record very impressive to achieve in March
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With ongoing feedback of recent MJO progression as discussed prior this leads into another significant cold air outbreak which descends from Russia through Kazakhstan and feeds into areas already dealing with prior outbreaks in Asia and the Middle East.
With multiple troughs in this setup this will produce multiple significant snow events with one beginning in Turkey and many events in the same regions which have already recieved huge snows very recently ie Iran, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, North India, Nepal, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Krgyzstan, with a particularly big event likely by the 13th of March.
Besides the significant flash flood risk which I discussed previously there are a few other significant synoptics in America & Canada.
One system will deliver significant snow into the Pacific Northwest some further accumulations down the west coast toward the Sierras but certainly nothing akin to the past week -> 10 days. This system could also bring some flash flooding at lower elevations.
The system bringing the significant flash flood threat across Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee etc will have significant snowfall on the northern and Northwestern flank across Eastern Canada and North Northeastern America. New Brunswick doing great again from this system too.
The system across the Pacific Northwest will become a cut off low into Southwestern America during the remainder of March week 2.
Signals emerging the next possible significant flash flood threat will emerge in roughly a weeks time across the Gulf States
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Huge snowmaking system running across New Brunswick, Newfoundland and a bit in Nova Scotia.
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Huge snowmaking system running across New Brunswick, Newfoundland and a bit in Nova Scotia.
Next significant risks of flash flooding will also be prominent as we switch into a +PNA
with multiple systems tracking across the East and Northeast portions of America - East Southeast Canadain Maritimes.
The 1st system will give widespread significant rains all the way from Florida & The Bahamas up the East Coast with a trend for highest rates between New Hampshire, Massachusetts > Nova Scotia.
The next system is further teleconnective feedback particularly the MJO as can be noted in my post on February 27th.
Similarities to previous weeks as a new High descends from Canada / the Pacific Northwest this gives a new significant cold air outbreak which links to recent MJO progression.
This system will bring new flash flood risks from more central states progressing East and Northeast with a trend ATM for a heightened risk between Alabama Georgia and Tennessee somewhere like Atlanta seems a higher risk area currently during Saturday.
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On 25/02/2024 at 19:28, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
This is modelled to be a very significant event for the higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest moving into higher elevations of California ie Sierras with HUGE snow amounts.
On 25/02/2024 at 19:28, Kirkcaldy Weather said:There is also potential for a big rainmaker running along the Gulf States into the first days of March though there isn't full agreement on this ATM.
On 28/02/2024 at 21:01, Kirkcaldy Weather said:As the cold air outbreak continues moving east with some interaction from the MJO which is currently moving across the Indian Ocean we'll have an intensification of the troughing which creates a significant and severe snowstorm which moves across Afghanistan,Tajikistan, Pakistan, North India into Nepal. Further severely cold temperatures again upto and perhaps exceeding 20 degrees below average.
Part of this cold outbreak has moved across East Asia with cold records broken thus far
Looks like another significant cold anomaly from the same episode will cross by March 9th - 10th
With somewhat of a similar pattern to weeks prior with cyclonic centres - cut off low developments being prominent toward the Alps this has produced mega snowfalls.
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Leading on from the Autumn + Winter thread. Note some of these initial events began in the crossover period from Winter - Spring.
Part of this cold outbreak has moved across East Asia breaking records thus far
Another significant cold anomaly part of the same episode will cross by March 9th > 10th
With similar patterns to prior weeks seeing further cyclonic centres and cut off low development this has produced several huge snow events over Alpine regions.
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On 21/02/2024 at 20:17, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
During week 1 of March with further influence from phase 7 of the MJO this could see further connections between the Canadian Maritimes Blocking and the Block to our East Northeast with potential this evolves into a Greenland High a la
On 27/02/2024 at 21:05, Kirkcaldy Weather said:As a high which is currently building further to our East begins to strengthen once the retrograding begins this will move westward to sit to our East also during this our cut off low also retrogrades westward into the Atlantic, this combination suggests a plume setup during week 1 of March is a real possibility.
Starting at this point looking into the dynamics at play, as the Atlantic High moves eastward into Spain this will connect to the high developments to our East - Northeast from the south Southwest which does give a plume style pattern though brief.
For the 2nd part of dynamics leading to the strengthening Blocking this comes thanks to the recent impressive strongly -PNA which was the strongest negative phase we've had all winter.
As the -PNA high energy moves into the block to our Northeast there are indicators this may become at / record intensity of hpa for this timeframe with blacks and purples which are particularly useful spotting these.
Leading on from my post here
"Following on from this I'm seeing a trend for a possible transition into yet another of the precursor setups for further stratospheric warming.
Current timing looks to be the very last days of February into March week 1.''
Very happy with those estimates
This gives a boost to the stratospheric warming which is ongoing with feedback of this setup into a strong warming event during March week 2.
So looking in some detail at some of the evolutions from now through the first half of March.
We've got some wave break action which causes an upper level cold pool to move roughly northwestward from Europe to the North Sea
As the High begins to retrograde this sends its accompanying wave break low / upper level cold pool northwestward whilst our cut off UK - Ireland trough also creates further cut off low developments into Italy.
As I've been covering in my recent posts my main interest with regard to opportunities of below average conditions from the Northeast and East has remained focused from week 2 of March.
With the Scandinavian Block continuing its retrograding movement west northwestward to Greenland blocking this will open the door to exactly the above.
With a deep Atlantic trough and a Southerly tracking Jet Streak this will see plenty of colder than average temperatures at surface and upper levels (some significant) tracking across Southern Europe and parts of Northern Africa, those who follow my posts may remember various times during winter which produced flash flood risks across Portugal, Spain and progression further east... this is another prime showcase.
Where the 500hpa setups will evolve to in a weeks time is perfect to where I'd expect to be given all teleconnective feedback which includes the prior stratospheric warming(s) feedback
Following onto my post above.
This is an impressive MJO cycle with a strengthening amplitude from the Indian Ocean which looks to maintain amplification as it crosses the Maritimes and heads into the Pacific. Having discussed upto phase 2 we are beginning to have feedback of phase 3 heading from March week 2 > 3 with the storm track in America gradually shifting northward and the trends into cut off blocking with troughs either side and possibly stormy conditions.
Absolutely gorgeous.
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5045052 -
On 21/02/2024 at 20:17, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
During week 1 of March with further influence from phase 7 of the MJO this could see further connections between the Canadian Maritimes Blocking and the Block to our East Northeast with potential this evolves into a Greenland High a la
On 27/02/2024 at 21:05, Kirkcaldy Weather said:As a high which is currently building further to our East begins to strengthen once the retrograding begins this will move westward to sit to our East also during this our cut off low also retrogrades westward into the Atlantic, this combination suggests a plume setup during week 1 of March is a real possibility.
Starting at this point looking into the dynamics at play, as the Atlantic High moves eastward into Spain this will connect to the high developments to our East - Northeast from the south Southwest which does give a plume style pattern though brief.
For the 2nd part of dynamics leading to the strengthening Blocking this comes thanks to the recent impressive strongly -PNA which was the strongest negative phase we've had all winter.
As the -PNA high energy moves into the block to our Northeast there are indicators this may become at / record intensity of hpa for this timeframe with blacks and purples which are particularly useful spotting these.
Leading on from my post here
"Following on from this I'm seeing a trend for a possible transition into yet another of the precursor setups for further stratospheric warming.
Current timing looks to be the very last days of February into March week 1.''
Very happy with those estimates
This gives a boost to the stratospheric warming which is ongoing with feedback of this setup into a strong warming event during March week 2.
So looking in some detail at some of the evolutions from now through the first half of March.
We've got some wave break action which causes an upper level cold pool to move roughly northwestward from Europe to the North Sea
As the High begins to retrograde this sends its accompanying wave break low / upper level cold pool northwestward whilst our cut off UK - Ireland trough also creates further cut off low developments into Italy.
As I've been covering in my recent posts my main interest with regard to opportunities of below average conditions from the Northeast and East has remained focused from week 2 of March.
With the Scandinavian Block continuing its retrograding movement west northwestward to Greenland blocking this will open the door to exactly the above.
With a deep Atlantic trough and a Southerly tracking Jet Streak this will see plenty of colder than average temperatures at surface and upper levels (some significant) tracking across Southern Europe and parts of Northern Africa, those who follow my posts may remember various times during winter which produced flash flood risks across Portugal, Spain and progression further east... this is another prime showcase.
Where the 500hpa setups will evolve to in a weeks time is perfect to where I'd expect to be given all teleconnective feedback which includes the prior stratospheric warming(s) feedback
Following onto my post above.
This is an impressive MJO cycle with a strengthening amplitude from the Indian Ocean which looks to maintain amplification as it crosses the Maritimes and heads into the Pacific. Having discussed upto phase 2 we are beginning to have feedback of phase 3 heading from March week 2 > 3 with the storm track in America gradually shifting northward and the trends into cut off blocking with troughs either side and possibly stormy conditions.
Absolutely gorgeous.
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Wanted to add some info for the setup as we start Spring and some focal areas I'm monitoring heading through the first 2-3 weeks of March.
During the first area of precip during the overnight hours tonight into tomorrow morning a tornado can't be ruled out as there will be an increased amount of shear and SRH values are also higher.
Wales moving East Northeast across a large part of England.
As this activity develops into frontal precip moving northwestward into Scotland there will be a zone of increasing instability from Southwest England pushing into Central and Southeast England from mid day tomorrow. Thundery showers development with thundersnow also possible.
This can be noted as increasingly cold cloud tops move through.
My main period of interest continues to be through week 2 of March and in particular by mid March with a number of intriguing prospects.
Fitting with the MJO compisites in my post above we are beginning to see the feedback of the next opportunity for a possible snowy system into Northeast America with this currently looking to be devdloping around March 8th - 11th though not a huge emphasis on precise dates.
During this timeframe we also see current trends which move the Tropospheric Vortex more into our side of the Northern Hemisphere.
Into Mid March this will be part of the main 500hpa setups with our retrograding block moving into Greenland which gradually continues westwards as this is a big part of the El Ninò pattern as I showed prior, main focal points will be how strong we get into the negative NAO plus the energetic connection with the cyclone from Northeast US into our current UK trough which moves into the Atlantic as discussed plus as these join and link to the emerging trough toward Scandinavia ie the Tropospheric Vortex.
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Important notes regarding the US heat records this has occured following a strong Negative PNA [STRONGEST VALUES OF THE ENTIRE WINTER] AND DURING A SUPER EL NINÒ.
*preliminary
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Important notes for the US heat records > THIS HAS OCCURED FOLLOWING A STRONG NEGATIVE PNA [STRONGEST VALUES OF THE ENTIRE WINTER] AND DURING A SUPER EL NINÒ.
*preliminary
Following on to my post above
As the cold air outbreak continues moving east with some interaction from the MJO which is currently moving across the Indian Ocean we'll have an intensification of the troughing which creates a significant and severe snowstorm which moves across Afghanistan,Tajikistan, Pakistan, North India into Nepal. Further severely cold temperatures again upto and perhaps exceeding 20 degrees below average.
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Extremely pleased how the patterns have & are developing there's a few timeframes I'm focusing on ATM.
On 21/02/2024 at 20:17, Kirkcaldy Weather said:This connection will be brief at this stage with new trough developments close to the UK & Ireland During the last days of February into the beginning of March
On 21/02/2024 at 20:17, Kirkcaldy Weather said:During week 1 of March with further influence from phase 7 of the MJO this could see further connections between the Canadian Maritimes Blocking and the Block to our East Northeast with potential this evolves into a Greenland High
As this next low becomes a cut off low first across the UK and Ireland with below average temperatures at 850hpa and surface levels with fronts wrapping around the low this brings potential for snow event(s) for the UK and Ireland.
I had mentioned in a number of my posts that week 4 of February was the next significant opportunity for patterns which could favour wintry conditions and I'm extremely happy seeing such evolutions.
As the thickness levels begin to lower once more this sees the showers from the Atlantic becoming steadily more wintry and once the low begins to develop into that of a cut off and the cold air continues to intensify as it undercuts frontal precip current trends show potential for snow event(s) in particular for Wales, Northwest and Northern England [Pennines] and pushing into Scotland.
In these areas seeing snow / wintry precip there will also be frosts and an ice risk maybe even an ice day with snow cover.
As the pattern across our side of the Northern Hemisphere begins to develop retrograding tendencies we'll see a few big and interesting developments.
As a high which is currently building further to our East begins to strengthen once the retrograding begins this will move westward to sit to our East also during this our cut off low also retrogrades westward into the Atlantic, this combination suggests a plume setup during week 1 of March is a real possibility.
Into week 2 of March with further retrograding the connection of blocking to our East Northeast and the -PNA high across East Northeast America and Canadian Maritimes begins to centre in across Greenland.
With the MJO having progressed across the Western Hemisphere, South America and Africa and currently residing within the Indian Ocean this gives feedback in line with the above patterns and suggests there is a possibility for a colder flow from the Northeast > East though how much influence this has in the UK TBD.
Plenty of interest as we head closer to Mid March I suspect.
This ongoing cycle of the MJO carries importance with regard to El Ninò though there are still a bit of discrepancies with how amplified the MJO becomes within the Indian Ocean with the GEFS seeing a strong event whereas the CFS is much less amplified.
The GEM & JMA are more akin with the GEFS
I'm more familiar with Westerly Wind Bursts which are the warmer ones however we're looking at Easterly Wind Burst event here which could further speed up the ongoing decline in the El Ninò temperatures.
Also worth noting once more with the precursor patterns continuing we've got good signals for a new reversal of zonal winds at 10hpa (possibly 50hpa though no agreement on that just yet) with this looking like a stronger reversal than the previous 2 of winter 2023-2024.
Thanks for reading. KW
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5042615-
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Extremely pleased how the patterns have & are developing there's a few timeframes I'm focusing on ATM.
On 21/02/2024 at 20:17, Kirkcaldy Weather said:This connection will be brief at this stage with new trough developments close to the UK & Ireland During the last days of February into the beginning of March
On 21/02/2024 at 20:17, Kirkcaldy Weather said:During week 1 of March with further influence from phase 7 of the MJO this could see further connections between the Canadian Maritimes Blocking and the Block to our East Northeast with potential this evolves into a Greenland High
As this next low becomes a cut off low first across the UK and Ireland with below average temperatures at 850hpa and surface levels with fronts wrapping around the low this brings potential for snow event(s) for the UK and Ireland.
I had mentioned in a number of my posts that week 4 of February was the next significant opportunity for patterns which could favour wintry conditions and I'm extremely happy seeing such evolutions.
As the thickness levels begin to lower once more this sees the showers from the Atlantic becoming steadily more wintry and once the low begins to develop into that of a cut off and the cold air continues to intensify as it undercuts frontal precip current trends show potential for snow event(s) in particular for Wales, Northwest and Northern England [Pennines] and pushing into Scotland.
In these areas seeing snow / wintry precip there will also be frosts and an ice risk maybe even an ice day with snow cover.
As the pattern across our side of the Northern Hemisphere begins to develop retrograding tendencies we'll see a few big and interesting developments.
As a high which is currently building further to our East begins to strengthen once the retrograding begins this will move westward to sit to our East also during this our cut off low also retrogrades westward into the Atlantic, this combination suggests a plume setup during week 1 of March is a real possibility.
Into week 2 of March with further retrograding the connection of blocking to our East Northeast and the -PNA high across East Northeast America and Canadian Maritimes begins to centre in across Greenland.
With the MJO having progressed across the Western Hemisphere, South America and Africa and currently residing within the Indian Ocean this gives feedback in line with the above patterns and suggests there is a possibility for a colder flow from the Northeast > East though how much influence this has in the UK TBD.
Plenty of interest as we head closer to Mid March I suspect.
This ongoing cycle of the MJO carries importance with regard to El Ninò though there are still a bit of discrepancies with how amplified the MJO becomes within the Indian Ocean with the GEFS seeing a strong event whereas the CFS is much less amplified.
The GEM & JMA are more akin with the GEFS
I'm more familiar with Westerly Wind Bursts which are the warmer ones however we're looking at Easterly Wind Burst event here which could further speed up the ongoing decline in the El Ninò temperatures.
Also worth noting once more with the precursor patterns continuing we've got good signals for a new reversal of zonal winds at 10hpa (possibly 50hpa though no agreement on that just yet) with this looking like a stronger reversal than the previous 2 of winter 2023-2024.
Thanks for reading. KW
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Further significant & severe cold outbreaks as troughing descends into the Middle East which will see temperatures at 850hpa and surface temperatures as much as 20 degrees below average moving across countries such as Iran, Pakistan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. This troughing also brings further significant snowfalls.
Similar to previous weeks as a new high descends out of Canada this will push the above average airmass currently across America away with below average temperatures swinging across the US and into Mexico.
Ahead of the Canadian high and associated with the above average airmass, as an area of low pressure moves across northern states this looks set to see the next flash flood risk from February 28th through the first days of March with first focus into Kentucky, Indianna and Ohio, this may also have an accompanying severe weather risk ie tornadoes.
During this timeframe we also have further significant precipitation and flash flood risks moving from the Pacific Northwest down across the west coast.
This is modelled to be a very significant event for the higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest moving into higher elevations of California ie Sierras with HUGE snow amounts.
There is also potential for a big rainmaker running along the Gulf States into the first days of March though there isn't full agreement on this ATM.
The above average temperatures in Alaska will also switch to significantly cold and well below average again upto 20C values from the end of Feb into beginning of March.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Overall very happy with the above post.
Starting with the modelled movement of the Tropospheric Vortex we can watch as it moves into a position between the Greenland and Kara seas generally over the next week or so.
Very happy with the overall timing
as this storm system merges with the Atlantic troughing which feeds into the Tropospheric Vortex as discussed prior.
This pattern of cyclonic systems running to the North Northwest of the UK and Ireland is feedback from recent MJO progression particularly February phases 1 through 2 with good representation including the Tropospheric Vortex positioning.
Pairing with feedback of the Super El Ninò we can see this is supportive of a warmer pattern including the development of high pressure from Africa which extends into Europe again bringing increased temperatures at surface and 850hpa levels.
Linking this to the feedback of phases 2 through 3 during February and March again nice representation here for an above average temperature setup.
Further nice temperature representation particularly in Australia, South America and USA + Canada.
We're really looking at the feedback of the above really coming to the fore in particular from Mid March - 15th which becomes most noteable to begin with across Canada as the persistent blocking patterns which have - are a common El Ninò characteristic begin to transition as troughing begins to form into Canada.
From the 15th there are a couple of major developments as discussed above.
The Canadian Blocking starts to transition more into that of a trough dominated pattern.
The increasingly strengthening high develops from Africa into Europe.
As the trough developments begin over Canada this will force the blocking to weaken overall at this stage with signs of the cut off high developments I spoke of currently looking likely somewhere between Greenland and Canada with Baffin Bay a reasonable shout.
The feedback as we begin to move at a continuous high amplitude across the Maritimes see my post here for further info
This feedback is already becoming noticeable within the models with phase 4 in March having tendency of high pressure building in the Atlantic possibly extending toward the Canadian Maritimes with scope for ridging up into Greenland and a potentially stormy setup with troughing around the UK.
Thanks for reading.
KW
