It's a mixed picture for the upcoming Bank Holiday weekend. at times, sunshine and warmth with little wind. However, thicker cloud in the north will bring rain and showers. Also rain by Sunday for Cornwall.
It’s a tricky mix of UK weather coming up for the early May Bank Holiday weekend. There is some rain but also good fine, sunny even warm spells.
A large area of lingering cloud will edge northwards, gradually producing patchy light rain, then heavier showers. Central and eastern England should see a good deal of dry weather but there will be cloud around at times affecting the temperatures. The main range is 14 to 19C, so nothing outstanding but the high teens can feel pleasantly warm. It will still feel cool after dark. It won’t be windy. The Midlands, Lincolnshire and East Anglia manage to miss the showery rain to the north and an incoming rain band from the southwest. The main uncertainty is on Saturday as a feature moves over the Low Countries and whether that manages to enhance any shower activity for SE England and East Anglia later in the day. This showery rain may pep up during Saturday night.
For Bank Holiday Monday, the ECM model is bullish about precipitation reaching over more of SE Britain. This is a wider, wetter picture than the UKV model which keeps the occluded frontal rain skirting Channel coasts and southern counties of England. Weather symbols from an app will give you a snapshot of your location, from that model run, but you won’t know if there is rain nearby. It’s worth keeping in mind the overall story.
Predicting the temperatures becomes tricky as well. If it is raining and cloudy then temperatures will struggle at only 12 to 14C. If breaks appear in the cloud or any patchy rain is a bit further north or south then the temperatures could leap up, even to 20C and it will feel pleasantly warm.
Western Scotland has been warm and sunny this week with over 22C on Thursday 2nd May. Parts of Scotland start the long weekend with Extreme or Very High risk of wildfire warnings and a plea to the public to exercise extreme caution.
“Human behaviour can significantly lower the chance of a wildfire starting, so it is crucial that people act safely and responsibly in rural environments” Scottish Fire & Rescue
Suffolk recorded 23.4C after a dramatic night of lightning for southern England as storms moved up from northern France. On Friday there is brighter weather over northern Britain but with one or two sharp showers appearing. A frontal band which was over the Netherlands (bringing torrential rain and flooding on Thursday night) and Germany will linger over Britain into the weekend. For Friday, it will bring more cloud and rain with thundery pulses heading up the North Sea. There have already been clusters of sferics showing on the radar this morning
Convective forecast - "an area of elevated thunderstorms ...may affect areas further north across eastern and N / NE of England and perhaps far SE Scotland through the day."
These head to northeast England, with a few reaching southeast/southern Scotland. This frontal band of cloud and rain will bring cloudy conditions across central and northern Britain and Northern Ireland, although the far north of Scotland will see a sunny Saturday morning. Under the cloud, it will be damp, feel cooler and at times a rather wet day for Northern Ireland. Temperatures will be around 14C but in any brightness, they could pop up.
To the south of this band, it will be dry and sunny with fair weather cumulus building through the day. There is the risk of showers breaking out for Kent, Essex, even across to Surrey. Temperatures will be around 16 to 20C, so a fine day.
During Saturday night it will be clear and cold in the south until an occluded front arrives from the southwest with cloud and patchy rain for Cornwall. For northern Britain and Northern Ireland, it will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain.
In the morning, Sunday sees bright spells for the far north of mainland Scotland. The large area of cloud cover continues over northern parts of the UK with damp, cool weather and showery outbreaks for Grampain which pick up by the afternoon.
There will be a good deal of dry and sunny weather for Wales and the rest of England but southwest England will be pestered by this occlusion. The rain looks to turn heavier by lunchtime on Sunday for Cornwall and south Devon with an easterly breeze. In the sunnier spots, again temperatures could reach 19 or 20C.
Overnight it will be cool with showers continuing in the far northwest as the occluded front edges over more of southwest then central southern England.
Bank Holiday Monday
The occlusion is still around by Monday with showery rain and more cloud. There could be some heavy downpours as this moves along the central Channel and near to Hampshire. Throughout the day it does pull away from Devon with outbreaks of rain reaching Sussex to end the weekend. Remember the ECM spread showery rain over more of SE Britain, affecting the Home Counties and London, so keep that uncertainty in mind. The temperature range for London on Monday would be 13C in the rain or 20C if it stays bright and fine. Again the Midlands to the Wash could see fine, warm weather. There will be showers for Northern Ireland, north Wales, and northern England into Scotland with more cloud and rain further north. There will be gaps; southwest Scotland, Yorkshire Dales, Merseyside should be hopeful of some Bank Holiday brightness.
It’s not a clear picture overall. The far southwest will see this lingering cloud and rain so enjoy the fine Saturday. For northern parts, the stubborn cloud will be disappointing and feel cool when it's damp. However, there is hope with bright or sunny spells bringing spring warmth. It’s a UK Bank Holiday weekend, the weather has to keep us on our toes.
