UK heatwave as temperatures rise even higher this week

We have a heatwave coming up after a weekend of thundery weather and downpours. Hot air from North Africa, Spain, and Portugal is reaching through western Europe. There is warm air over England to start the week and the June sunshine is strong. 

There will be pockets of cloud, even fog at times, with a few bits of rain in the next few days but the overall theme is for plenty of fine, dry weather.

However, this heat will increase from the south later this week with a mention of 31C (88F) by Friday, potentially even higher. To be an official heatwave, temperatures have to pass certain values (which vary around the UK) and occur on three days in a row. 

“A UK heatwave threshold is met when a location records a period of at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold. The threshold varies by UK county”

For northern and western parts of the UK, the temperatures need to be 25C or above for three days. Northern Ireland and Scotland don’t look likely to meet these criteria but it will still become warm and there will be more fine, dry and sunny weather after a mixed start to the week. Friday looks hot everywhere. Cardiff will heat up midweek and that heat will spread across Wales in the following days.

The thresholds for an official heatwave in England vary from 25C in the north and southwest to 28C for Greater London and a few inland surrounding areas.

Temperatures across England will be in the low to mid 20sC rising to the high 20sC. This air will become increasingly hot and humid. Whilst some people will enjoy this heat and version of summer, others will find the heat uncomfortable. The elderly (with multiple health conditions and on multiple medications) and other vulnerable groups may struggle in heatwave conditions.

Met Office extreme data showing monthly maximum temperature records for the UK 

It’s not the high heat of July 2022 when the UK reached 40.3C. So far this year we have reached 29.4C last Friday and this week does look hotter than that. The grass pollen levels continue to be high or very high.  Air quality will also decrease with Moderate levels of air pollution forecast later this week.

There will be a lot of dry weather this week but northwest Scotland will see more rain for Monday as a waving weather front brushes by. There will be a moderate SW breeze bringing fresher air off the North Atlantic. For England the warmth will begin, with temperatures reaching 23 to 26C today, but without the high humidity.

A cold front will move in tonight with some wet and windy weather for the Western Isles. It will be a windy start for the Northern Isles on Tuesday, even up to gale force as the frontal band fragments over Northern Ireland and Scotland with more cloud and outbreaks of rain. The Isle of Man, Cumbria and the Solway Firth will have a damp, grey Tuesday morning and that band will creep over more of NW England and NW Wales by lunchtime. Ahead of this fading frontal zone, it will be very warm and sunny. To the north of the front, it will be cooler overnight.

As high pressure establishes itself over the UK there will still be cloud even patchy rain for Northern Ireland midweek with the odd shower for Scotland but it is the rising temperatures that are the main story this week. Accompanied by increasing humidity, the heat will be throughout the UK by Friday and it could be SE Wales and central Britain qualifying for an official heatwave Thursday through Saturday. Perhaps even longer.

Will it be Hot? showing feels like values.