A warm July has continued the trend of recent months, but a northwest-southeast rainfall divide persists. A significant pattern change this weekend will bring rain, followed by a cooler north-westerly flow.
June 2025 had a marked northwest-southeast split in the weather across the UK, but July so far has seen a more even distribution of temperature and sunshine anomalies, thanks partly to the hot spell around last weekend having spread northwards to cover most of Scotland.
Sunshine is currently running above the long-term average at most sites, though not exceptionally so, and temperatures have so far been well above the long-term average. As is often the case nowadays, there have been some cooler spells, but the cool anomalies during cool spells have been smaller than the warm anomalies during warm spells. However, a northwest-southeast split has persisted with the rainfall anomalies. It has so far been another dry month over most of southern and eastern England, especially the south-east, but a wet one in south-west Scotland and north-west England, although the northern half of Scotland has also had a dry month so far.
Much of southern and eastern England has seen a sustained rainfall deficit for some time, with a long run of dry months starting in February or March. The spring was a very dry sunny one for much of the country, although some western areas had substantial rain at times in March and April, and June continued very dry in eastern England, although it was a very wet month in Cumbria and north Lancashire.
A pattern change is now upon us, and the weekend is set to be a wet one for almost all parts of the UK, including the areas that have so far had a dry month. This will alleviate problems with water shortages and dry ground. So far, thundery activity has been localised, but there is potential for some more thunderstorms to develop mainly in eastern England during this afternoon and evening, and there may be some thunder associated with a frontal system moving northwards on Saturday night.
Showers will follow behind into England and Wales from the Midlands southwards on Sunday, which may also produce some thunder in places. The often convective nature of the rainfall will mean that rainfall totals will be quite variable from one location to another, so some places may not see much rain, while there could be localised flooding in areas that catch particularly heavy bursts of rain. Monday and Tuesday look set to be days of sunshine and showers, but with progressively fewer showers as high pressure builds from the south-west.
From Wednesday we look set to move into a generally north-westerly type, with low pressure over Scandinavia and a strong Azores High often ridging into the south-west of Britain.
This will tend to maintain changeable conditions with temperatures close to the long-term average, but substantial rainfall will often be limited to western Scotland. Many areas, particularly the south, probably not seeing much more rain through to the end of the month. It will probably end up relatively cloudy for most, with the north-westerlies bringing moisture in off the North Atlantic, although sheltered eastern and southern counties will see more sunny spells coming through than the north-west.
Long range guidance from the ECMWF 42-day forecasts and the Met Office point towards a likelihood of further generally dry weather in the south of Britain as we head into early August, possibly with high pressure moving in from the south-west for a time and bringing another spell of generally dry sunny weather and potential for it to turn hot again. Thus, it looks possible that the wet weather this weekend may only offer most of southern, central and eastern England temporary relief from the sustained lack of rainfall that has been ongoing in these areas since at least March. However, this weekend’s rain should help matters to some extent and could well be enough to ensure that for many locations July doesn’t end up as exceptionally dry as many other recent months.
An upshot of the generally north-westerly type that is forecast to set in next week is that the heat will subside in most parts of Europe, especially central and western areas. It will be hot in many areas this weekend, but not exceptionally so, with for example most of France reaching around 30C and the south-east of France hitting 35C, but into next week the north-westerlies will cool things down, with temperatures generally around the mid-20s Celsius for much of central and western Europe. Hot weather will, however, hang on in southern Spain and Portugal.
Forecast model guidance diverges as we head towards next weekend, when the GFS model is suggesting that heat may build again over much of France and intensify in Spain and Portugal, but the ECMWF keeps the relatively cool north-westerly flow going through to next weekend.
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