Updated 17th November - Covering 24th Nov - 16th Dec 2025
Mean temperatures are likely to come out near to slightly above the 1991-2020 long-term normal over much of the UK, although they could end up slightly below normal if substantial cold weather develops towards mid-December. Week 3 in particular looks set to be mild, which will raise the mean temperature for the period as a whole.
Precipitation totals are expected to end up near normal for most overall, with wet weather in Week 2 being offset by drier weather later on, but it looks likely to be drier than average in western and northern Scotland, and potentially wetter than average in parts of southern and eastern England.
Sunshine totals are likely to end up above normal in most parts of Scotland, especially the west, but may end up below normal in the south of England.
This week is forecast to be wet for much of the country, with a strong jet stream crossing the British Isles to the south of the Greenland high which will be primarily responsible for cold weather during the preceding week. This will raise temperatures close to the long-term average generally. There will be some mild interludes, especially in the south, associated with tropical maritime air from the south-west, but also some colder interludes, especially in the north, via polar maritime north-westerlies. Bands of rain will cross the country frequently, accompanied by strong winds at times, interspersed with brighter showery weather.
It is probable that Scotland and Northern Ireland will be predominantly bright and showery, while further south there will be a greater emphasis on cloudy weather with rain at times. During colder spells with north-westerlies, there is potential for snow on high ground, chiefly in the north, but it looks unlikely that cold air masses will establish for long enough to bring snow to low levels. Temperatures may trend milder towards the end of the week with more of a prevailing south-westerly flow.
Mean temperatures are forecast to be about 1C below the 1991-2020 long-term normal in most parts of Scotland, but about 1C above in south-east England, with other regions generally close to the long-term normal.
It will be wetter than average for most regions, especially the south and east, but parts of northern and western Scotland may end up a little drier than average.
Sunshine totals are expected to be above normal in most parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland, especially in northern Scotland, but they will probably be below normal in Wales and western and southern England.
Although there will remain a tendency for above-average pressure over Greenland, it looks probable that we will retain a strong Icelandic low, displaced to the south of its most common position, bringing generally south-westerly winds to Britain. It will be mild and changeable early in the week, but possibly trending colder and drier later in the week with ridges of high pressure becoming more frequent and bringing potential for frosty nights and patchy fog. Overall, this week is expected to be milder than average, probably by 1 to 2C in most regions, and drier than average in the south and near the east coast of Scotland and north-east England, but with nearer average precipitation for north-western Britain. Sunshine is likely to end up near or rather below normal for most, but it will probably be sunnier than average in eastern Scotland.
Confidence is low regarding the specifics, but it looks likely that there will be an increasing chance of colder spells towards mid-December with low pressure systems tracking to the south and leaving Britain open to winds from the north and/or east. This does not necessarily mean widespread snow, as many variables have to fall into place for that, but it looks likely that the period will come out with near or below average temperatures, with milder than average temperatures looking less likely. It will probably be drier and sunnier than average in north-western Britain, with the south and east more likely to have near or above average precipitation and near or below average sunshine. The period will probably start off dry and fairly cold with high pressure, before uncertainty increases with a greater chance of some more unsettled spells and potential cold spells.
Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast is written by Ian Simpson and is updated every Monday.
