Updated 29th September - Covering 6th - 28th Oct 2025
Mean temperatures are forecast to be around 1C above the 1991-2020 long-term normal in most regions, perhaps nearer 1.5C above in parts of eastern Britain, probably nearer 0.5C above in south-western Britain in particular.
Rainfall totals will probably be below normal over most of England and Wales and eastern Scotland, despite a frequently unsettled theme to the weather, but will probably be above normal in north-west Scotland, where frequent westerly winds will be combined with orographic enhancement of rainfall. However, the period’s rainfall totals have potential to be raised considerably by a couple of ex-hurricanes crossing the North Atlantic, depending on the path of those depressions.
Sunshine totals are expected to be near normal in most western areas, and above normal in the east.
This week looks set to be changeable with westerly and south-westerly winds, and temperatures generally near or rather above the seasonal average. However, high pressure will often be close to the south and south-east, which will tend to maintain a northwest-southeast split, with the majority of England, especially the east and south, and the east of Scotland generally not seeing much rain, despite a generally unsettled weather pattern.
For the most part, the low pressure systems moving from south-west to north-east are forecast to be relatively shallow, bringing rain mainly to north-western Britain, but there is potential for some very strong winds around the 10th/11th associated with another ex-tropical hurricane, which will transition into an extratropical low as it crosses the North Atlantic but has potential to have extra strength and impetus as it approaches western Europe. This could bring a wind storm to north-western Britain and/or bring rain further south and east than the other depressions during this week.
Mean temperatures are expected to be around 1C above the 1991-2020 long-term average for much of the country, perhaps up to 2C above in some eastern counties.
It is expected to be wetter than normal in western Scotland and in the west of Northern Ireland, but probably drier than normal in eastern and southern England and near the east coast of Scotland. However, confidence in it being relatively dry in the south and east is reduced due to the potential for an ex-hurricane to disrupt things near the end of the week.
Sunshine is likely to be above normal in most eastern counties and near normal in the west, due to the generally mobile weather pattern which will allow some sunny periods in between the rain bearing frontal systems.
There is a general signal for high pressure to the south to be more dominant at times than during the previous week. Winds will be predominantly westerly, but some ridges of high pressure especially moving across the south will tend to mean longer periods of drier, more settled weather than during the previous week for most of the country. However, the north-west of Scotland in particular will remain more prone to receiving cloud and rain from depressions and frontal systems, and some strong winds at times. Again, there could be an ex-hurricane at some point mid to late week, but this is uncertain. With westerly winds and potential for some cooler north-westerlies at times, temperatures are forecast to be close to or just above the long-term normal. Most regions will probably be drier than average, except for the west of Scotland. Sunshine totals are likely to be above normal in the north-east of Britain, but with more uncertainty over sunshine amounts elsewhere, probably near or moderately above average for most other regions.
There are signs that the weather may turn more unsettled again during this period, with the high pressure to the south fading and allowing low pressure systems coming across the North Atlantic to come in closer to the British Isles. However, there is not a strong signal for it to be particularly wet, so it may well end up being a case of normal weather for the time of year, with some wet and windy weather at times but also some drier interludes with ridges of high pressure in between the low pressure systems and fronts. Temperatures are again likely to be a bit above the seasonal average but nothing unusual.
Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast is written by Ian Simpson and is updated every Monday.
