Arctic Ice 2009

[Methuselah]

I would say a more normal re-freeze, comparable to say the 80s. Off course it's to early to tell yet, but encouraging signs to say the least!

I'll readilly accept a modest recovery, SC...But 'comparable... to the 80s'? Don't you think that that's a tad optimistic, just now?

[doctormog]

I'll readilly accept a modest recovery, SC...But 'comparable... to the 80s'? Don't you think that that's a tad optimistic, just now?

I guess there's a chance in terms of timescale but not in terms of ice area/extent. Although of course even the former is just supposition at the moment, even if the outlook support it.

[MR EXTREMES]

I would say a more normal re-freeze, comparable to say the 80s. Off course it's to early to tell yet, but encouraging signs to say the least!

encouraging is that all lol.

i think its blooming brillant stuff although i must contain myself id love to see a big freeze up there and indeed it looks like something is going on but still a little early to get to excited.

intresting i read in another forum that cold pooling is increasing around the arctic early this year leading some to suggest autum being early this year although its true we need to wait and see

I am not trying to spin a positive as a negative. Yes If we can get higher than 2008 then of course that's a good thing, however it should be caveated that if it only gets marginally higher each year, even with average or below average temperatures then we had better hope we don't get a warm summer because that will be a problem.

It really doesn't fill me with confidence as sooner or later we will experience such a summer, we had better hope it's not in the next few years. Such a small recovery indicates to me the fragile state that the Arctic ice is in.

In answer to your question: I don't think it should give average ice extent and have never said that, but it should IMO be leading to at least a decent improvement. Atm there is still nothing to indicate it has/will lead to an improvement over 2008.

July as per the update you quoted DM, says that the melt rate in July was the same as for 2007. However in August the melt rate has slowed alot, this is partly due to increased cloud, very few warm plumes etc.

I really wouldn't call our current situation healthy.

a recovery is a recovery and thats it my take would be if jet keeps going walk abouts and neg pdo and minimum stays low which its likely to do then thinking about next summer being the is not really a good idear.

[karyo]

I am pleased to see such a slow down in the seasonal melting. At the same time last year, there was a rapid melt!

I wonder whether the large amounts of SO2 that the Sarychev explosion has contributed to that? It happened when the sun was at it's strongest in the northern hemisphere therefore having more of an effect of blocking the sun rays from reaching the ground.

Karyo

[mcboz]

Not sure if this is the right place to post this, or if anyone is interested, but I flew over Greenland a couple of weeks ago (on the way to the west US coast) and took some pictures with my compact digital camera.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/54921464@N00/sets/72157622039394504/

The photo's aren't great quality but give an idea of the what south Greenland is like at the moment..

Edited August 14, 2009 by mcboz

[J10]

On the IJIS figures, the rate of ice loss has fallen to around 50,000sqkm per day over the past week, this rate of ice loss is below average for this time of year, we are the 4th highest in the 2003-2008 range, above 2007, and this week we have also gone above 2005 and 2008.

We are currently around 915,000 above 2007, 80,000 above 2008, 50,000 above 2005, 25,000sqkm below 2003-08 average, and 120,000 below 2006

Of course remembering that the 2003-08 average is well below 30 yr averages.

A further improvement this week, as the early losses suffered this year in the Siberian sector had led to a deficit compared to those past years. However as we now enter the time where the Siberian ice melted in those past years, this deficit has been cancelled out.

Nothing can be said for certain, but given current trends, we are likely to finish above 2007, and below 2003,2004 and 2006.

Where we finish in terms of 2005 and 2008 is unclear.

On the IJIS figures, the rate of ice loss has risen slighlty to around 55,000sqkm per day over the past week, this rate of ice loss is around average for this time of year, we are the 5th highest in the 2003-2008 range, above 2007 and 2008, and this week we have also gone below 2005.

We are currently around 865,000 above 2007, 192,500 above 2008, 7,000 below 2005, 21,000sqkm below 2003-08 average, and 187,5000 below 2006

Of course remembering that the 2003-08 average is well below 30 yr averages.

Nothing can be said for certain, but given current trends, we are likely to finish above 2007, and below 2003,2004 and 2006.

Where we finish in terms of 2005 and 2008 is unclear. However we may well finish somewhere between the figures for 2005 and 2008.

[shuggee]

Just had a look at your graph J1 - super stuff. Good to see what is actually happening amongst all the hyperbole I seem to read these days that seems to miss the actual facts - so we've gone from what was heading to be the second largest melt ever recorded to something a bit more like third or fourth most melted Arctic ice ever recorded. Ta

[osmposm]

Gone (very sensibly) pretty quiet round here, so for light relief.....

Polar Bear Spotted Clinging to Last Lump of Ice in Arctic!

:lol:

[karyo]

Gone (very sensibly) pretty quiet round here, so for light relief.....

Polar Bear Spotted Clinging to Last Lump of Ice in Arctic!

:lol:

Haha! I love it!

I wonder if the media will mention the word 'recovery' in a few weeks time? Probably not!

Karyo

[Nick L]

Haha! I love it!

I wonder if the media will mention the word 'recovery' in a few weeks time? Probably not!

Karyo

We will inevitably get the usual "it's the 3rd/4th lowest on record" from the BBC, which is true. But the ice isn't going to go from record low to record high in a couple of years, which is what the media fail to understand.

[karyo]

We will inevitably get the usual "it's the 3rd/4th lowest on record" from the BBC, which is true. But the ice isn't going to go from record low to record high in a couple of years, which is what the media fail to understand.

Exactly, it is a gradual process.

There was loads of discussion during the spring about the vulnerability of the single year ice. Well, it seems to have managed pretty well!

Karyo

[weather eater]

We will inevitably get the usual "it's the 3rd/4th lowest on record" from the BBC, which is true. But the ice isn't going to go from record low to record high in a couple of years, which is what the media fail to understand.

No its not, but also its not going to get lower and lower, year in year out either, so no evidence of global cooling can be drawn from this years summer ice extent. The major point that this summer will prove is that we have yet to see a recovery in summer ice extent, whether its the lowest, 2nd lowest, 3rd etc is immaterial.

Edited August 20, 2009 by weather eater

[Nick L]

No its not, but also its not going to get lower and lower, year in year out either, so no evidence of global cooling can be drawn from this years summer ice extent. The major point that this summer will prove is that we have yet to see a recovery in summer ice extent, whether its the lowest, 2nd lowest, 3rd etc is immaterial.

I never said it is global cooling. All I said was that media organisations such as the BBC won't look on the positive side, that it is a second consecutive summer where ice extent has risen year-on-year.

[MR EXTREMES]

No its not, but also its not going to get lower and lower, year in year out either, so no evidence of global cooling can be drawn from this years summer ice extent. The major point that this summer will prove is that we have yet to see a recovery in summer ice extent, whether its the lowest, 2nd lowest, 3rd etc is immaterial.

well ice is doing fine i dunno what the doom and gloom is all about.

as for next year and so on well no one knows.

Edited August 20, 2009 by badboy657

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

No its not, but also its not going to get lower and lower, year in year out either, so no evidence of global cooling can be drawn from this years summer ice extent.

Indeed and no evidence of global warming either.

BFTP

[weather eater]

I never said it is global cooling. All I said was that media organisations such as the BBC won't look on the positive side, that it is a second consecutive summer where ice extent has risen year-on-year.

1. The media is not interested in positive stories, they don’t sell and the BBC compete's in the ratings market place. 2. Its not good news its another poor year, just not as poor, better if you want to put a positive spin on it. If we can keep a sequence going for a few years now that would be good news.

[weather eater]

Indeed and no evidence of global warming either. B)

BFTP

It is evidence of Global Warming, or do you mean not evidence of AGW.

We have warmed, we have seen Global Temperatures stabilise, we have yet to see them fall in any meaningful way, therefore summer ice loss is most likely down to GW, whether its man made or a natural cycle is another argument.

Edited August 20, 2009 by weather eater

[MR EXTREMES]

It is evidence of Global Warming, or do you mean not evidence of AGW.

We have warmed, we have seen Global Temperatures stabilise, we have yet to see them fall in any meaningful way, therefore summer ice loss is most likely down to GW, whether its man made or a natural cycle is another argument.

its cert that warming has happened but not for sometime now stabilised is about right because other forcing are starting to work and it would seem cooling looks most likely.

man made perhapes a little but natural climate change is the true term in my opion,

with growing support.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

No its not, but also its not going to get lower and lower, year in year out either, so no evidence of global cooling can be drawn from this years summer ice extent. The major point that this summer will prove is that we have yet to see a recovery in summer ice extent, whether its the lowest, 2nd lowest, 3rd etc is immaterial.

No, I think it looks as though what we can say about this summer is that some of the most cataclysmic predictions about the season being a wipe out way below 2007 look to have been overstated. The approach to the arctic ice situation is mostly taken/skewed from this worst case scenario viewpoint wrt AGW, and so from that perspective it is not as grim as would like to be perceived by some.

Notwithstanding that, no-one, at all, is suggesting that the arctic ice situation is in a robust state exactly, but the current situation can still be approached from a glass half full perspective as well as a glass half empty one. Especially from within the context of some of the more doomwatch AGW perspectives, not referring to you here of course.

As usual, a case of different spins suiting different preferred perspectives.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It is evidence of Global Warming, or do you mean not evidence of AGW.

We have warmed, we have seen Global Temperatures stabilise, we have yet to see them fall in any meaningful way, therefore summer ice loss is most likely down to GW, whether its man made or a natural cycle is another argument.

Temps have been cold in the arctic yet ice continued to melt, warmer waters are believed to be the culprit, not warmer airtemps.

Yes GW and AGW are two different propositions.

I agree with Tamara, huge overstating of how the ice would melt this year. IMO the signs have been there that it would hold on a little better. The jet has moved south reducing the chances and occasions of warm plumes entering the arctic. -ve PDO IMO has reduced the warm flow of waters into the arctic basin, last winter it was a pretty cold one in the arctic.

Recovery? Rot stop at this stage.

BFTP

Edited August 21, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Typhoon John]

And to add to that another factor in the huge loss in 2007 was unfavourable wind patterns breaking the ice and flushing it into the North Atlantic. We've seen better conditions this year and unsurprisingly the difference is significant.

[Thundery wintry showers]

There is indeed a lot of spin going on- from both sides. I often say that with regards the synoptic charts, it would be good if more of us looked at the results objectively rather than letting personal opinions cloud perceptions of the reality (often being used to reinforce themselves in a kind of circular logic). The same is true of the Arctic ice melt.

Firstly let's take the blunt facts- 2007 had a record ice melt, at least partly assisted by unfavourable synoptics (a large high sat over the Arctic basin), 2008 had a slight recovery associated with favourable synoptics, and 2009 looks like it might manage another small recovery, despite less favourable synoptics than last year (though still more favourable than in 2007).

My reading of the situation is that 2007 is looking more and more like an anomalous blip in a relatively gradual downward trend, rather than the start of a catastrophic acceleration of that trend. However, the slight recovery since then does not necessarily signify a reversal or stalling of the trend- for the time being, the low years in 2005 and 2007 still keep the overall trend line going down, and at a faster rate than in the 1980s and 1990s.

And the reasons for the ice melt are pretty well established- mostly the result of natural cycles associated with synoptics and ocean currents, but with some contribution from the rise in global temperature also. The issue of how much of the rise in global temperature is anthropogenic is a related, but different, topic.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

And to add to that another factor in the huge loss in 2007 was unfavourable wind patterns breaking the ice and flushing it into the North Atlantic. We've seen better conditions this year and unsurprisingly the difference is significant.

Yes, those are good points

Freds summary above is also a pretty good one of the current situation

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

To put things simply, I recon if it were for global warming alone and it's effects it would all melt horribly by 2020 continuing the 2007 trend, the polar bears would die out etc and it would be a great shame.

Luckily i don't think this will happen now as the sun just happens to becoming to it's rescue into a period of modest cooling which will counteract global warming. For until it comes back with a vengeance, but probably not for about 50 years [the sun does it's own thing but i will still predict].

That being said some region may warm and others cool, lets just hope arctic ice is in the cooling region.

[Iceberg]

Looking at this page there has been talk of cataclysmic predictions, huge overstating over ice etc.

Would anybody like to point out to me where this has been ?. I missed have missed it on this thread.

Jackones updates give the best conditions without spin, using the most upto date data has this as the 3rd lowest of record currently, with anything upto another month of ice melt. The NE passage is on the verge of opening, the NW passage on the verge of opening and the deep NW passage melting rapidly lately.

We could talk about a glass half empty or full etc but in reality a better example might be.

You buy a pint, disappear on the phone for 30 mins come back and somebody has just drank half of it. After 5 mins of badgering they agree to give you 20p towards your next pint.

Some people might be happy with this. But considering as a few people have pointed out temperatures have been below average in the arctic circle this summer, we have a negative PDO, negative AO etc and all we can do is inch back up.

Me I don't find this encouraging at the moment, there have been much better recoveries than this before. But lets wait before we drawn too many conclusions.