Tropical Storm Edouard

[kold weather]

Well Recon has found westerly winds and also recon has found winds that would support an upgrade to 30kts, though based on what I've seen the 30kts estimate may not last all that long before its upped given recon found estimated surface winds of 33-36kts in the Se quadrant a few hours ago.

So Invest 91L has been upgraded to the 5th Tropical Depression of the season. Track is close to WSW and should slowly track more to the west. Exactly how fast it tracks will determine eventual strength. Right now most guidence I've seen suggests mid level TS but the 12z GFDL does suggest possibly a 60-70kt system is possible upon landfall. Given shear has eased off the only real issue is the dry air coming in from the land at the mid-levels which is currently hindering the northern quadrant. I think development will only be slow in the next 12-24hrs but may pick up a little as the core continues to develop. Whilst a hurricane looks unlikely Humberto caught me out big time last year and so we can't rule out that option given it has 36hrs over water.

[Somerset Squall]

Still looks messy, and as you say KW, development will probably be slow at best over the next 24hrs:

[kold weather]

Recon has just found a 3mb drop in the last hour or so, pretty fast deepening occuring at the moment at least, maybe hinting that the mid level dry air is mixing out as new convection is going up over the center which is probably helping the feedback and deepening of the system.

EDIT---Recon just found flight level winds of 52kts!!!

Which would be abnout 45kts at the surface if adjusted!

Edited August 3, 2008 by kold weather

[Somerset Squall]

Probably need to take back what I just said, latest imagery shows a more symmetrical system and the centre doesn't look as exposed as an hour ago. This ones going to keep us guessing I think B)

[kold weather]

Yep I'm glad I mentioned about the chance for a hurricane becuase the odds have just increased in a big ay for a hurricane to form out of this given its now undertaking what appears to be RI.

Saying all that I suppose it shouldn't all that much of a shock given 4hrs ago recon found winds that were at 33-36kts as I mentioned in my post.

[Cookie]

The Atlantic is back to life

Storm Alert issued at 3 Aug, 2008 22:00 GMT

Tropical Storm EDOUARD is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 32 hours

probability for TS is 45% within 8 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 32 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 32 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008

600 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008

WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CONVECTION TO

THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER A SHORT TIME AGO...IT FOUND MAXIMUM

FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002 MB...A

DROP OF 5 MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT THE

DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE

SEASON.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. EDOUARD IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE

INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BETWEEN THE GFDL

AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2200Z 28.1N 88.0W 40 KT

12HR VT 04/0600Z 28.2N 89.4W 45 KT

24HR VT 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.5W 50 KT

36HR VT 05/0600Z 28.9N 93.8W 60 KT

48HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 96.2W 45 KT...INLAND

72HR VT 06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE

Continuing to get better organised:

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates guys

[Paranoid]

Hmm this system is strengthening quickly... was it forecast to do this?

[Somerset Squall]

The first discussion by the NHC indicated 40kts in 24hrs, but it has jumped to that strength already (in a few hours). So it's intensifying faster than predicted though to be fair initial intensity forecasts for new systems are the most difficult until there is an idea of the past behaviour of the storm and how the system responds to the environmental conditions.

[Cookie]

where is it expected to make landfall?

Texas?

[Somerset Squall]

where is it expected to make landfall?

Texas?

Not certain yet but Texas is quite likely, if not, Louisiana. Not got all that long over water but given the rate Edouard is intensifying it may become a hurricane. The official forecast has Edouard peaking at 60kts before landfall.

Edited August 3, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[kold weather]

Conditions aren't as ideal as they were for the super fast Humberto but its got at least 2-3 times the length of time to strength as that hurricane did so I wouldn't be all that surprised to see this make hurricane status. I won't make a landfall forecast just yet but I'll go with a landfall of 75kts...though I may be a little on the low side.

[Cookie]

update

Storm Alert issued at 4 Aug, 2008 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm EDOUARD is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Houston (29.8 N, 95.4 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

Note that

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[kold weather]

Well Edouard got hit pretty hard by some unexpected mid level shear last night that blasted the convection to the south of the circulation. However signs that the shear is now easing off again with new convection firing on the eastern side and importantly trying to wrap around the northern side which is the first time I've really seen it do that. We shall have to see if the convection can develop further but may be the first signs of a more favorable set-up developing for this system.

[Coast]

Tropical Storm Edouard moving toward Texas coast

NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Emergency teams were activated as residents along the Gulf of Mexico prepared to get hit with another strong storm for the second time in less than a month. Tropical Storm Edouard gained speed as it moved west Monday and was expected to strengthen to a near-hurricane before making landfall somewhere in Texas or southwest Louisiana. A tropical storm warning was in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward to San Luis Pass in Texas. A hurricane watch was in effect from west of Intracoastal City, La. to Port O'Connor, Texas.

Edouard had maximum sustained winds near 50 mph with higher gusts at 5 a.m. EDT Monday. The storm's center was located about 185 miles southwest of Lafayette, La., and 295 miles east-southeast of Galveston, Texas. It was moving west near 9 mph and was expected to strengthen before making landfall Tuesday morning. Forecasters said the warm waters of the Gulf provided the right conditions for the storm to intensify and approach hurricane strength with winds of 75 mph or more. Southeastern Texans prepared for Edouard's impact while the victims farther down the Texas coast continued cleaning up the damage from Hurricane Dolly, which hit last month.

Krista Piferrer, a spokeswoman for Texas Gov. Rick Perry, said Sunday that state emergency management officials were getting updates through conference calls with the National Weather Service. Texas began activating a number of emergency teams Sunday afternoon, including calling up 1,200 Texas military forces and six UH-60 helicopters, the State Operations Center said. The Texas Forest Service and the Texas Engineering and Extension Service activated response teams. State emergency management officials were also conducting conference calls with officials from communities along the Texas coast, from Port O'Connor to Port Arthur, that could be affected by Edouard.

Isolated tornadoes were possible over parts of southern Louisiana and the upper Texas coast later Monday, according to the hurricane center. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches was expected in coastal Louisiana and southeast Texas, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches in Texas. Tides of 2 to 4 feet above normal levels were expected in parts of the warning area. In Louisiana's Terrebonne Parish, emergency director Jerry Richard said he had called in staff members to determine if the parish's low-lying areas could be affected by flooding. They planned to monitor the storm through Sunday night.

Clifton Hebert of the Cameron Parish emergency preparedness office said they are monitoring Edouard on a 24-hour basis and will be sending regular releases to the public. "Right now, we want residents in travel trailers to have a more permanent residence to go to if necessary," Hebert said. He also said they expected a high tide four to five feet about average. "If people see water in the roadway, they should not drive through because it would probably be saltwater and damage their vehicle," Hebert said.

State emergency officials did not immediately return calls seeking details on emergency plans. Many of the Gulf's offshore oil and natural gas drilling platforms sit in the storm's path. Shell Oil Co. had not made any operational changes Sunday afternoon, but company officials were watching the storm closely, spokesman Shawn Wiggins said. ExxonMobil Corp. had not evacuated any workers or cut production by Sunday evening, but the company was preparing its platforms for heavy wind and rain and considering whether to evacuate some workers, spokeswoman Margaret Ross said in an e-mail statement.

[Somerset Squall]

Edouard is looking pretty good right now, some good bading features and the convection is making a really good attempt at wrapping into the previously bare western quadrant of the storm. Convection is slowly building over the centre which was almost completely exposed earlier. I think Edouard is on a strengthening trend again after the lull of today.

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 4 Aug, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm EDOUARD is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 75% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Houston (29.8 N, 95.4 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[MAF]

Thanks Cookie

some more info on Edouard from NOAA

DATA THUS FAR FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE WIND

FIELD OF EDOUARD IS EXPANDING...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW

IN THREE OF FOUR QUADRANTS...BUT THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM WINDS HAVN'T

CHANGED MUCH. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB AND THE PEAK

FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT. STRUCTURALLY...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES

TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION...WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER

BANDING AND A FEW SMALL AREAS OF NEW CONVECTION GOING OFF CLOSE TO

THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EXPANSION OF THE

OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO

BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD

IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL TAKING EDOUARD TO 69 KT

PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND SUPERENSEMBLE

STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN

CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE

THRESHOLD. IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE

PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A

LOW-END HURRICANE.

[Jack Wales]

It's looking more unlikely that Eduardo will reach hurricane strength due to its development being inhibited by shear overnight. Although strong convective bursts are continuing around the core and shear is expected to diminish again, the system is now interacting more with land and dry air so I predict Eduardo will make landfall as a strong TS.

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 5 Aug, 2008 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm EDOUARD is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently

probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Houston (29.8 N, 95.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours

Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

It's looking more unlikely that Eduardo will reach hurricane strength due to its development being inhibited by shear overnight. Although strong convective bursts are continuing around the core and shear is expected to diminish again, the system is now interacting more with land and dry air so I predict Eduardo will make landfall as a strong TS.

I would agree with that, Edouard very close to land which should inhibit any further development. Currently at 55kts, and the NHC also say that this is likely to be Edouard's peak before landfall later today.

[Jack Wales]

TS Eduardo makes landfall just under hurricane strength - 65mph

NOAA NHC

Edited August 5, 2008 by Jack Wales

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 5 Aug, 2008 21:00 GMT (Final Warning)

Tropical Depression EDOUARD is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 70% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Houston (29.8 N, 95.4 W)

probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)

probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.