Met Office Autumn Forecast

[Candice]

The Met Office have released their Autumn forecast - in a nutshell

High pressure to the west - more frequent

Dryer than normal - good news I would think for most of us

Less windy than normal - goody goody - I hate wind

Cooler than last year but not cold

Perhaps more mist/fog toward the end of Autumn

www.metoffice.com

[karyo]

The Met Office have released their Autumn forecast - in a nutshell

High pressure to the west - more frequent

Dryer than normal - good news I would think for most of us

Less windy than normal - goody goody - I hate wind

Cooler than last year but not cold

Perhaps more mist/fog toward the end of Autumn

www.metoffice.com

Very good news! This will prepare us nicely for winter - no anomalous warmth, no southwesterlies, no high ssts.

The bad news would have been for a Euro High and a rampant northern arm of the jet.

Karyo

[Gavin P]

Heres the Met's autumn forecast;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/season...2007/index.html

Above average temps. Below average rainfall. Sound familier?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Heres the Met's autumn forecast;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/season...2007/index.html

Above average temps. Below average rainfall. Sound familier?

I'll go along with their HP positioning to our west but I think a NW'ly dominated flow will not produce a warmer than average Autumn although trends of late years would favour that.

BFTP

[karyo]

Heres the Met's autumn forecast;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/season...2007/index.html

Above average temps. Below average rainfall. Sound familier?

That's not a good summary I'm afraid Gavin!

They are actually expecting the high pressure to be centred in the Atlantic so no Euro high this time! They say temperatures likely to be above average but cooler than last Autumn - they always say above average anyway.

The set-up they describe should give northerly incursions from time to time. It's a matter of the Atlantic high linking with Greenland.

Karyo

[Gavin P]

They say;

Most likely to be warmer than the 1971-2000 average, though cooler than last autumn

Average or below-average rainfall is more likely rather than above-average rainfall

I said;

Above average temps. Below average rainfall.

Hows that not a good summary?

[kold weather]

Actually is sounds to me they place the HP bang over the top of us, given they note there could be a lot of fog, esp in the latter half which is very common under anticyclonic condtions, indeed it may represent a fairly cool November, maybe something akin to November 2005.

[Damien]

It sounds a lot like/very consistent with the IRI forecast.

Mind you:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...uT2mMonNorm.gif

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n...7_Eur_temp.html

Look at October - take your pick.

[karyo]

They say;

Most likely to be warmer than the 1971-2000 average, though cooler than last autumn

Average or below-average rainfall is more likely rather than above-average rainfall

I said;

Above average temps. Below average rainfall.

Hows that not a good summary?

Key to their forecast is the placement of the high pressure to the west of the UK. As I said earlier, this can allow n/nw incursions from time to time.

Also, the high pressure in the latter part of autumn can suppress temperatures significantly with fog and frost.

Karyo

[Gavin P]

Month after month after month, those IRI predictions always look the same to me.

Of course Krayo. But like or not, the Met's overall summary is for a warmer and drier than average autumn. Its important any forecast is stripped down to its bare minimum so that at the end of the season, you can revaluate to see how successful its been.

Edited August 23, 2007 by Gavin P

[snowhope]

Just nice to have some seasonal fog hinted at.

Be interested to see what happens.

[Anti-Mild]

Month after month after month, those IRI predictions always look the same to me.

True! Mostly large patches of light pink across Europe with one patch of darker pink. Hardly ever any blue whatsoever.

[summer blizzard]

The offical link please??????

[Candice]

The offical link please??????

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/season...2007/index.html

usual place -met office website

Edited August 23, 2007 by JACKONE
Correcting Link to Meto Website

[jethro]

Wasn't the first METO forecast for this summer predicting above average temps, possibly hottest summer yet? I know they altered and downgraded it later, plenty of time for this forecast to be turned on its' head too.

[summer blizzard]

Wasn't the first METO forecast for this summer predicting above average temps, possibly hottest summer yet? I know they altered and downgraded it later, plenty of time for this forecast to be turned on its' head too.

Not at all...

There June forecast was for above average temperatures and average rainfall across the UK with only a 1 in 8 chance of record breaking conditions such as in 2003 or 2006, of course media ramtation knows no bounds.

[ribster]

Month after month after month, those IRI predictions always look the same to me.

Of course Krayo. But like or not, the Met's overall summary is for a warmer and drier than average autumn. Its important any forecast is stripped down to its bare minimum so that at the end of the season, you can revaluate to see how successful its been.

That's all it is though, a forecast - I don't think summer panned out as they expected!

Not at all...

There June forecast was for above average temperatures and average rainfall across the UK with only a 1 in 8 chance of record breaking conditions such as in 2003 or 2006, of course media ramtation knows no bounds.

Be fair though SB, they did not expect it to be that wet!

What they actually said:

The latest seasonal forecast from the Met Office, updated today, still indicates that this summer is likely to be warmer than average.

Following the trend set throughout 2006 and the first part of 2007, seasonal forecasters say there is a high probability that summer temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C.

Current rainfall indications suggest that over the summer as a whole southern parts of the UK are more likely to experience average or below-average rainfall, while the north is more likely to see average or above-average rainfall.

Wasn't anywhere near below average rainfall here, a million miles away in fact! So when they say for example, average or below average rainfall for Autumn I take it with a pinch of salt.

Edited August 23, 2007 by ribster

[snowmadchrisuk]

the met office forecasts always seem like a guess where they can cover there ass what ever happens! the met office can not forecast more than 24 hrs accurately. And they have been known to get it wrong when forecasting 12 hours ahead. So yes I take there forecasts with a pinch of salt but that is my personal oppinion and do not expect it to reflect on what anybody else thinks. I prefer to follow the models, When models come together and start to agree you can see the pattens and make your own judgement. Plus model watching is fun , I see them like a puzzle that needs solving. and have fun trying to solve the puzzle.

I would agree that it is likely to be below avarage rainfall for a bit simply by law of avarages after what we have already had.

Id also agree about above avarage temps as summer has to show a sign at some point even if it is late and into autum.

So is it a forecast the met use or an educated guess. Ive known the weather warnings don't usually go up lately till the event is actually happening.

Anyway thats enough of my rant, hoping the high pressure brings some fog and frost ( although id have thought that more likely if it was building from the south as apose to sw/west.)

Chris

Edited August 24, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[Damien]

The latest seasonal forecast from the Met Office, updated today, still indicates that this summer is likely to be warmer than average.

Following the trend set throughout 2006 and the first part of 2007, seasonal forecasters say there is a high probability that summer temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C.

What, that "summer" was still above average!? :lol:

Just goes to show how much we've been softened up over the years. :lol:

Good grief. How did Britain cope in the 1980s? Oh wait - I know. "Armageddon" in the headlines, LOL. (A bit like everyday.)

[Optimus Prime]

I'm surprised the summer will still come in above average despite a cool July and August.

What makes me even more surprised is that July was only 0.2c below average nationally. Either way is was 0.5c below the 71-000 average.

[Anti-Mild]

I'm surprised the summer will still come in above average despite a cool July and August.

?

June was 15.1c, 1c above average.

July was 15.2c, 1.3c below average

August is 15.9c after 23 days.

If our summer is to come in at 'above average' then the last 8 days of August must have an average CET of 18.2c.

I would tentatively suggest that after a brief rise over the weekend, we should see the CET drop slightly until Friday until it is back to 15.9c, which would give a seasonal CET of 15.4c, 0.1c below average.

[beng]

The MO is referring to the UK temperature not the CET. I think (and feel free to correct me I'm wrong) parts of W Scotland may have had quite a warm summer (relative to the average). Certainly across most of England, Wales and Eastern Scotland I would say the summer has been poor and below average.

I'm not sure what stations go into the UK mean temp but perhaps they are stations more prone to the Urban Heat Island effect. Certainly the CET figure is a longer standing record and would seem more in tune with my perception of this summer.