Annual CET 2007

[West is Best]

We seem to be headed for mid 10.5s unless December does something remarkable either side of the recent average. In this case yet another top 10 finish, probably not quite top 5.

It's much too early still to make predictions like this. We simply don't know, and the range of the final outcome remains at least 0.5C.

All I think I'd tentatively say is that with interesting synoptics still showing up, the story of this year i.e. the marked cooldown and below average months against the 10 year mean seems to be continuing into early December.

But we simply don't know what the final annual figure will be, because it's impossible at the moment to be sure about December. Wait and see!

[Stratos Ferric]

It's much too early still to make predictions like this. We simply don't know, and the range of the final outcome remains at least 0.5C.

All I think I'd tentatively say is that with interesting synoptics still showing up, the story of this year i.e. the marked cooldown and below average months against the 10 year mean seems to be continuing into early December.

But we simply don't know what the final annual figure will be, because it's impossible at the moment to be sure about December. Wait and see!

WiB, are you honestly suggesting that by the year end we could get down to 10.05C? (roughly where we look like coming in less 0.5C) You really have taken leave of your senses. It's all very well trying to champion the cause of cold, but honestly, on occasions you not only cross the boundary of plausibility, you carry on out beyond the solar system, out of our galaxy, and manically on towards the edge of the known universe.

December would need to come in at -1C: it nearly happened in 1891, and 1951 came within a couple of degrees.

It's much too early still to make predictions like this.

...

Your standard refrain when the projection is anything other than in alignment with your own; the moreso when you know you're on a sticky wicket. If you can't win the argument then stop the other side from saying anything. I think that's how the Communists kept power in the Eastern Bloc for so long isn't it?

[West is Best]

WiB, are you honestly suggesting that by the year end we could get down to 10.05C? (

The usual sort of thing we've all on here come to expect. Try and post less often, and read more carefully please. I said the range was 0.5C, which means 10.25C to 10.75C.

I think you punt by averages, which is fine. You'll mostly be right. But it's not metereology in my view.

The fact remains that it's far too early to call the annual CET. As the Met O found out to their cost a couple of years ago, even publicising the annual result 2 weeks before the end can lead to an almighty cock up. Best to be cautious for a few weeks yet.

Edited November 25, 2007 by West is Best

[Stratos Ferric]

The usual sort of thing we've all on here come to expect. Try and post less often, and read more carefully please. I said the range was 0.5C, which means 10.25C to 10.75C.

I think you punt by averages, which is fine. You'll mostly be right. But it's not metereology in my view.

WiB, given that you DID NOT set the limits for the range, and also that you never knowingly suggest anything on the upside, then I think it was quite reasonable to assume you were meaning downside. What would be required in December for us to return 10.25 for the year? Like I keep saying, support cold, but losing touch with reality only makes it harder to sort your occasional sensible cold-side observations from the many that are all bias and no real thought through substance.

By the way, sounds a bit like sour grapes, but if YOU punt by meteorology then looking at your record you could do with doing a bit more mugging up don't you think? Let's just say that I look at the record to set my limits; I often provide a rationale start of month which is clearly a blend of pattern, history and my own reading: I think my ability to provide a commentary on events provides sufficient basis for you and others to decide whether I guess, or apply some science along the way. The limits of your approach seems to be "it's going to be cold".

Like I say, the year looks like coming in between 10.5-10.6, with a narrow margin outside this.

...

The fact remains that it's far too early to call the annual CET. As the Met O found out to their cost a couple of years ago, even publicising the annual result 2 weeks before the end can lead to an almighty cock up. Best to be cautious for a few weeks yet.

It's too early to call it PRECISELY. The mistake they made was in 1-making a proclamation as a public professional body; and 2-being very specific about the outcome when that outcome was always going to land amidst a fairly crowded pack.

I am merely indicating the likely range. I'm not aware there's any rules saying that I can't do that. My words are caveated to the extent that I thnk they need caveating.

[West is Best]

Range is a statistical term SF. I honestly assumed you'd be familiar with it. 10.5C with a range of 0.5C means 10.25C to 10.75C.

I'll spell it out more clearly for you next time.

You must be fairly stunned by the cooldown, with yet another month below the 10 year mean that you once used to talk about on here all the time, until it ceased to suit your hermeneutic? Honestly now, bet you're pretty shocked deep down?

Edited November 25, 2007 by West is Best

[Stratos Ferric]

Range is a statistical term SF. I honestly assumed you'd be familiar with it. 10.5C with a range of 0.5C means 10.25C to 10.75C.

I'll spell it out more clearly for you next time.

You must be fairly stunned by the cooldown, with yet another month below the 10 year mean that you once used to talk about on here all the time, until it ceased to suit your hermeneutic? Honestly now, bet you're pretty shocked deep down?

WiB, a range DOES NOT have to have a symetric distribution. Since you offered NO mid point and set no limits I assumed some on your behalf. Most unlike you to see any scope for upside, in fact I think that's the first time you've done so in about 8 weeks: strange that you choose to do so now, but sensible given that December is looking less cold than you require.

And, much as you continue to drone on endlessly about my use of the ten year mean I think, if you look carefully, I was referring to it only the other day, and in the precise context of how cool, or not, this current spell is.

...

You must be fairly stunned by the cooldown, with yet another month below the 10 year mean that you once used to talk about on here all the time, until it ceased to suit your hermeneutic? Honestly now, bet you're pretty shocked deep down?

WiB, as I said yesterday the cool down is SO STUNNING that the rolling 12 month average is now almost excatly where it was 12 months ago.

This month has turned out pretty much where I said it would. Not the 1.5C degrees lower that you have constantly twittered on about despite mounting evidence to the contrary. The same happened last month. At present this is nothing other than a correction from a very high starting point. You can choose to see it how you see fit, but you don't ever seem to me to be arguing from a particularly well reasoned position, or, moreover, one that is being backed up by events.

It looks like we can add "not very good at mindreading" to the list of your other abilities.

Edited November 25, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[West is Best]

SF - next time I post a range I'll ensure I specify the midpoint rather than merely mention it (10.5C). I'll try and put it in the most straighforward English I can.

Little point arguing, especially as it'll just annoy others. I don't think it's worth saying where it'll land from here as something 'likely'. You came a complete cropper in September doing that (maybe I should remind you of the vitriol you used that month, which you then got so wrong?), though as I say if you keep opting for the mean you'll more often than not get it right. I just think it's statistics not metereology. Just my opinion.

Edited November 25, 2007 by West is Best

[Stratos Ferric]

SF - next time I post a range I'll ensure I specify the midpoint rather than merely mention it (10.5C). I'll try and put it in the most straighforward English I can.

Little point arguing, especially as it'll just annoy others. I don't think it's worth saying where it'll land from here as something 'likely'. You came a complete cropper in September doing that (maybe I should remind you of the vitriol you used that month, which you then got so wrong?), though as I say if you keep opting for the mean you'll more often than not get it right. I just think it's statistics not metereology. Just my opinion.

WiB, you DID NOT mention any midpoint. All you said was that the range was 0.5C. If you're going to come on trying to be a smart-arsed pedant, then you need to be precise in the first instance. Stop being silly.

And you are at liberty to think whatever you want. The problem is that thinking out loud ISN'T just thinking is it, it's actually saying. Like I say, for those who care to check, the record is there for all to see. If you are nailing the results in your start of month guess, or showing any ability to forecast during the month as events evolve then it will be there for all to see.

I love the way you come on to these threads, picking arguments, then when you're clearly not making the point suggest that we desist.

Edited November 25, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[pottyprof]

SF.. You mentioned 10.5 and Wib... You mentioned the range..

Funny old world when you actually read what has been said in order.. Or is it just me??

[ukmoose]

There really just hasn't been a 'marked cool down'. It's cooler than last year's record smashing warmth certainly but hardly a marked cool down compared to many previous years. We really can't say things are cooling down because this year has failed to reach last year's dizzy heights can we?

Let's wait and see what the winter brings...To see a 'marked cool down' we also need to look at next year, the year after that and so on for the next 15 years or so which is approximately the period we have been 'warming up'. It is just not reasonable to call a cool down on one year, UNLESS we are comparing it to last year only.

Moose

[Stratos Ferric]

There really just hasn't been a 'marked cool down'. It's cooler than last year's record smashing warmth certainly but hardly a marked cool down compared to many previous years. We really can't say things are cooling down because this year has failed to reach last year's dizzy heights can we?

Let's wait and see what the winter brings...To see a 'marked cool down' we also need to look at next year, the year after that and so on for the next 15 years or so which is approximately the period we have been 'warming up'. It is just not reasonable to call a cool down on one year, UNLESS we are comparing it to last year only.

Moose

I think that's right Moose. I can see why WIB and others might see cooling in the pattern, and short term (i.e. within bounds of the recent cool spell) it is relatively cool. We will almost certainly continue to loose rolling 12month cumulative C as well, such was the mildness last winter, but the thing to watch will be how much cooler the winter is (and whether it is absolutely, as well as relatively, cool), and how much longer this pattern continues for. Looking at the charts for early December perhaps not that much longer, but one mild sequence does not a winter indicate.

[The PIT]

Well since we're going to be getting another 10+ yearly average all that shows that we may have reached a plateau. Now whether this is temporary or not is another question. Six months of averagish months doesn't really indicate a major change.

[xerxes]

Well since we're going to be getting another 10+ yearly average all that shows that we may have reached a plateau. Now whether this is temporary or not is another question. Six months of averagish months doesn't really indicate a major change.

I agree with that. We've certainly had some "interesting" synoptics and not the usual zonal ride through autumn. If we had I expect that things would have been markedly different. A sudden switch back to full on zonality may ease such speculation though

[eddie]

The second half of 2006 and first half of 2007 were both the warmest ever recorded and they both smashed the previous records by a margin not seen before.

Second half of 2006 was 0.85C warmer than the record set in 1959.

First half of 2007 was 0.28C warmer than the record set in 1846.

To put some perspective on that, the last time the record fell:

First half of 1846 was 0.04C warmer than the record set in 1822

Second half of 1959 was 0.09C warmer than the record set in 1949

I think it would be actually be quite frightening if we didn't see a marked cooling from those figures as they were, even in the context of AGW, exceptional.

In my opinion SF is right here. We are just seeing a return to the ever increasing mean rather than a proper cooldown.

A sub 10C cet year would perhaps be a good signal of a real cool down.

[Stratos Ferric]

The second half of 2006 and first half of 2007 were both the warmest ever recorded and they both smashed the previous records by a margin not seen before.

Second half of 2006 was 0.85C warmer than the record set in 1959.

First half of 2007 was 0.28C warmer than the record set in 1846.

To put some perspective on that, the last time the record fell:

First half of 1846 was 0.04C warmer than the record set in 1822

Second half of 1959 was 0.09C warmer than the record set in 1949

I think it would be actually be quite frightening if we didn't see a marked cooling from those figures as they were, even in the context of AGW, exceptional.

In my opinion SF is right here. We are just seeing a return to the ever increasing mean rather than a proper cooldown.

A sub 10C cet year would perhaps be a good signal of a real cool down.

An interesting tracker that I was minded to start next year was against the rolling mean. I think there's a chance that the rolling mean might nip under 10C - who knows, perhaps for the last time ever the way things are generally trended - but for the annual mean to achieve the hallowed level (how we'd have laughed at that twenty years ago!) would require not only an average winter (by recent standards), but also a repeat of the cool summer and slightly cool autumn. If that happened then the cooling fraternity would have grounds for optimism, as we'd then be exiting the trend corridor (see the plot in the 'cooling' thread in the analysis partition for more detail) on the bottom side. I can't see us achieving 18 months without any notable warmth, but I guess you can never say never - well, not on here and without invoking somebody's ire.

[Stratos Ferric]

The much warmer finish to November is making it increasingly likely that the 10 year rolling average CET will continue to rise this year. We have to take it pretty much for granted that the thirty year rolling mean increases every year, but the ten year mean, though trending up, occasionally slips back a tad. An increase this year would make for another all time high. Need to dip under 4.8 in December to avoid this outcome. We maanged it in 2006.

[Optimus Prime]

What is interesting are how close these years come in since 1997;

10.53

10.34

10.63

10.30

9.93

10.61

10.50

10.48

10.44

10.82

Clearly 2001 does seem to be an outlier in the warm run. Almost entirely due to the negative impact from January, March, April and December and a few other less cold ones.

I wonder whether in the history of averages since 1659 we have ever had a run of months for so long with the margin of difference so close together.

What it means is predicting a yearly CET from 12 months out will almost always come in within the 0.5c margin unless we see a couple of wildy below average months, even the run of cool months in 2006 only had the affect of securing a below 11.0c year.

Next year I'm going for 10.55c.

[summer blizzard]

Here is my 2007 CET forecast.

January: 1.7C (2.5C below average, coldest since 1987)* Wrong, the January CET was 7C, 2.8C above average

February: 4.7C (0.5C above average, warmest since 2004) Wrong, the February CET was 5.8C, 1.6C above average

March: 9.3C (3C above average, warmest on record)* Wrong, the March CET was 7.2C, 0.9C above average

April: 10.6C (2.5C above average, warmest since 1865)* Wrong, the April CET was 11.2C 3.1C above average

May: 11.8C (0.5C above average, coolest since 2005) Success, the May CET was 11.9C, 0.6C above average

June: 15.1C (1C above average, coolest since 2002) Success, the June CET was 15.1C, 1C above average

July: 17C (0.5C above average, coolest since 2005) Wrong, the July CET was 15.2C, 1.3C below average

August: 15.7C (0.5C below average, coolest since 1993) Success, the August CET was 15.4C, 0.8C below average

September: 14.5C (0.8C above average, coolest since 2003) Wrong, the September CET was 13.8C, 0.1C above average

October: 11.4C (1C above average, coolest since 2004) Success, the October CET was 10.9C

November: 7.9C (1C above average, coolest since 2005) Wrong, the November CET looks to be between 6.9C and 7.4C

December: 5.2C (0.1C above average, coolest since 2005)

My 2007 CET forecast at this stage is... 10.41C (10.49C), with a 0.05C margin of error (70% chance of second warmest year on record)...

Summary...

2(2) below average months

10(10) above average months

1(1) record warm month

4(5) very warm months (1.5C+ anomolous values)

1(0) very cold months (-1.5C anomolous value)

I have updated my forecasts from November onward.

Looks like anywhere between 10.4C and 10.6C is a good call now.

This is my final prediction for the 2007 CET.

[Stu_London]

This is my final prediction for the 2007 CET.

Is that a definate?

[Stratos Ferric]

Is that a definate?

It reminds me of the old advert for Topic where Toby always only found the hazelnut on the last bite.

SB - I think I've asked before, but in practice, from here, getting down to 10.41 is going to require a very unlikely, if not unfeasibly low, December CET. Certainly lower than 5.2C - I think your projection carries forward error in your previous projection doesn't it. I can never really understand the point of part correcting your projection as you go because you end up landing in the ballpark, but not nailing it as close as you might.

What is interesting are how close these years come in since 1997;

10.53

10.34

10.63

10.30

9.93

10.61

10.50

10.48

10.44

10.82

Clearly 2001 does seem to be an outlier in the warm run. Almost entirely due to the negative impact from January, March, April and December and a few other less cold ones.

I wonder whether in the history of averages since 1659 we have ever had a run of months for so long with the margin of difference so close together.

What it means is predicting a yearly CET from 12 months out will almost always come in within the 0.5c margin unless we see a couple of wildy below average months, even the run of cool months in 2006 only had the affect of securing a below 11.0c year.

Next year I'm going for 10.55c.

It's a good point, and one we've covered previously on here somewhere. There is markedly less variability in our climate, and to an extent our weather, nowadays. I know the lovers of cold rail at it, but when I refer to the modern climate this is one feature that stands out, and in particular the narrowing of the corridor is not a coming together in the middle, but a raising of the floor.

...I wonder whether in the history of averages since 1659 we have ever had a run of months for so long with the margin of difference so close together.

What it means is predicting a yearly CET from 12 months out will almost always come in within the 0.5c margin unless we see a couple of wildy below average months, even the run of cool months in 2006 only had the affect of securing a below 11.0c year.

Next year I'm going for 10.55c.

Shows the thirty year variation not the ten year, but on that basis - and given that we've warmed without equal in that period (which you would therefore expect to widen the range) it's probably as tight as it's ever been.

As I've said previously, the 12 month rolling we're in now may be the last shot we have at getting sub 10 in our lifetimes. Stark words, perhaps, but very much in line with the consequences of your own assessment.

[ukmoose]

It's a good point, and one we've covered previously on here somewhere. There is markedly less variability in our climate, and to an extent our weather, nowadays. I know the lovers of cold rail at it, but when I refer to the modern climate this is one feature that stands out, and in particular the narrowing of the corridor is not a coming together in the middle, but a raising of the floor.

I think that is absolutely right on all counts SF. The question now is, how high will the floor be this winter?

Moose

[Stratos Ferric]

It's a good point, and one we've covered previously on here somewhere. There is markedly less variability in our climate, and to an extent our weather, nowadays. I know the lovers of cold rail at it, but when I refer to the modern climate this is one feature that stands out, and in particular the narrowing of the corridor is not a coming together in the middle, but a raising of the floor.

I think that is absolutely right on all counts SF. The question now is, how high will the floor be this winter?

Moose

GO see my post in the analysis section if you've not seen it already. For non exceptional events the worst case is that a 4C month looks about the floor. Staggering if so.

[Stratos Ferric]

GO see my post in the analysis section if you've not seen it already. For non exceptional events the worst case is that a 4C month looks about the floor. Staggering if so.

10.68 is the current projection. I'd put the range now at about 10.55 - 10.73. Anything between 2-7 on the all time list.

Edited December 2, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[JohnAcc]

10.68 is the current projection. I'd put the range now at about 10.55 - 10.73. Anything between 2-7 on the all time list.

If 10.68 is the current projection are you saying that your predicting a Dec CET of 7.4c (warmest since 74?) if so, a very bold statement this early in the month. For me the range is still anything from 10.35 - 10.75. However as we stand, I would lean towards the higher end of that scale.

Rgds, John

[Stratos Ferric]

If 10.68 is the current projection are you saying that your predicting a Dec CET of 7.4c (warmest since 74?) if so, a very bold statement this early in the month. For me the range is still anything from 10.35 - 10.75. However as we stand, I would lean towards the higher end of that scale.

Rgds, John

John,

6.5 would give us 10.68. I can't see us coming remotely close to 10.35: that would require 2.6C, giving the coldest absolute month since Jan 97, and the coldest by anomaly since Dec 1995. With nothing remotely cold in the offing that is simply beyond plausible. It would be bold if we were driving blind - we're not. Only my view, but I'm reasonably happy with my projection of bounds.