August CET

[summer blizzard]

I have opened this thread to discuss the August CET.

Following on from a very hot June and July, a CET of around 17.5C would see summer 2006 as the hottest on record however my teleconnection forecasts point to a rather cool August, while i would normally regard this as anomolous considering the low likelyhood at the moment, it looks as though outside forcing should prevent any major heatwaves, therefore i will predict that the August CET will be 15.2C, which is 1C below average.

Please allow a 0.5C margin of error.

The average CET for August is 16.2C.

Edited July 25, 2006 by summer blizzard

[PersianPaladin]

16.0C

Edited July 25, 2006 by PersianPaladin

[Bham Chris]

I feel we will see the hottest day since records begun in this month it will be another exceptionally warm month with a CET of around 17.5C,a similar month to August 2003.Isn't 15.2C more or less exactly average by the way?

[Wynn D Woo]

16.5C

[Weather-history]

Last time August..

..had a CET >19C

1995 19.2

..had a CET >18C

2003 18.3

..had a CET <17C

2005 16.2

..had a CET <16C

1998 15.9

..had a CET <15C

1993 14.6

..had a CET <14C

1986 13.7

..had a CET <13C

1912 12.9

..was the coolest month of the summer

1993 Jun 15.0 Jul 15.2 Aug 14.6

..was cooler than September

1956 Aug 13.5 Sept 14.3

..was cooler than May

1848 May 13.9 Aug 13.6

..was cooler than May, June and July

1833 May 15.1 Jun 14.6 Jul 15.8 Aug 14.3

The first August to have a CET of >18C was 1747 with 18.3

The next occasion wasn't until 1911 with 18.2

So from 1659 to 1910, there was only one August with a CET of 18.0 and greater, that being 1747. From 1911 to present, there have been 8 such Augusts.

1911 18.2

1947 18.6

1955 18.1

1975 18.7

1990 18.0

1995 19.2

1997 18.9

2003 18.3

[summer blizzard]

Summer Blizzard: 15.2C

PersianPaladin: 16C

Windswept: 16.5C

Bham Chris: 17.5C

Mr Data, are you going to have a go at predicting the August CET??

I just thought that i would say that my July CET prediction despite being correct will be regarded as a failure because i should of predicted the July CET as being 18C rather than 19.5C, because i base my forecasts on expected teleconnection patterns.

Edited July 25, 2006 by summer blizzard

[su rui ke]

Can anyone confirm that it's 17.5C that's needed to make 2006 the warmest summer on record?

[Weather-history]

Can anyone confirm that it's 17.5C that's needed to make 2006 the warmest summer on record?

We don't know the final outcome for July yet, but lets say Hadley has July 2006 as 19.7 , then August would need a CET of 17.8 to equal the summer 1976 CET of 17.8.

[su rui ke]

We don't know the final outcome for July yet, but lets say Hadley has July 2006 as 19.7 , then August would need a CET of 17.8 to equal the summer 1976 CET of 17.8.

Oops. OK, 19.7 is about where it should end up for July. I'll go for 17.8 for August then - for no other reason than that!

[SP1986]

15.9 a cool wet, horrid August

[Snowly does it]

13.5

Miserable for warmies, a welcome relief for the garden and those of us that detest heat. Couple of light ground frosts in there somewhere too, and maybe some sleet for the Shetlands and the harbinger of some ridiculous news reports about summers of two halves.

Total guess, if it comes off I reserve the right to make up forecasting techniques and name them after my stuffed animals.

[Noctilucid]

16.2

August is a funny month, its a bit like May, it can either be the start of autmn (like 2004) or a real scorchio summer month (2003!), September is the same.

I think with stubbourn blocking its going to be warm, even if it isnt boiling hot.

Joe

Edited July 25, 2006 by jshaw

[Bottesford]

17.5c. Previously I've underdone my predictions in a hope the weather will defy me and be hot- it has! Now I'll take the risk and plump for an above August although maybe not so above as July!

[Great Plum]

17.3c

[Optimus Prime]

18.9, very hot.

[lukenmudge]

Im going for above average in temperature and above in rainfall too. CET prediction = 16.9c

LM

[Methuselah]

18.1C

[Summer of 95]

I'll go for 18.4C- still hot though not quite record-breaking; nevertheless still enough to lift this summer above 1995 and 1976.

[stricklands]

19.2

[Rollo]

I think August will end up considerably cooler than July,so 17.9c.

[kold weather]

Very hard to tell what this month will be, a lot depends on how the Bermuda high behaves and how much of a tropical influance we get. I don't think this month wil lbe as hot as July, in fact quite possibly nowhere near however i still think someway above average is quite likely given the starting set-up we've had so far this summer and how the pattern that has re-occured has been very hot.

I'll go with 17.5C but i may well drop or rise this depending.

[conor123]

17.6c

Cool and unsettled for the first week then some heatwaves with thunderstorms at times.

[Stargazer]

I'mj going for a slightly above average month - CET 16.8 with below average rainfall and sunshine near normal.

[The PIT]

I'm always getting it too low so I'm going for 19C

[West is Best]

Tempted to go into the 19's, and first posted up 19.4 but then told myself that's silly, so ... 18.9C

Like Pit I've been aiming too low!

Edited July 26, 2006 by West is Best