Storm Risk Discussion

[maidstone weather]

Anybody seen this? Funnel cloud in Cornwall yesterday...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/pop_...1998/html/1.stm

amazing capture

Edited June 8, 2009 by maidstone weather

[VillagePlank]

I didnt think this year could be worse than the previous two for lack of convective activity in the SE - was I wrong!

The shame is that CAPE seems to be around, it's just getting convection to be vigorous enough to tap in. I think that's what happened yesterday, it wasn't vigorous enough to get to about 700hPa. (LI is a good indicator of how vigorous convection might be - we want it to be about -4 or lower, and K is another (slightly poorer) index, where we'd want it to be >35)

I saw towers created all day yesterday they just never turned into big towers.

[Tn9]

I took these pics yesterday,not that anything happened here,there was half hours rain in the early morning,then dry all day[nothing unusual there then],like Nick F said, if there was a rumble of thunder early in the morning i never heard it.

[VillagePlank]

Anybody seen this? Funnel cloud in Cornwall yesterday...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/pop_...1998/html/1.stm

amazing capture

Yeah MW, amazing. I think I'd wet my pants if I saw that for real ....

[sunny scunny]

Anybody seen this? Funnel cloud in Cornwall yesterday...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/pop_...1998/html/1.stm

amazing capture

Yep very well captured

[Harry]

Yeah MW, amazing. I think I'd wet my pants if I saw that for real ....

One of my biggest regrets was that I didn't get pics of two funnel clouds I saw about 8 years ago! One of them in particular, that went overhead, makes that funnel look almost like a non-event, lol.

This is probably the closest I have seen to it - though it was more white.

[VillagePlank]

One of my biggest regrets was that I didn't get pics of two funnel clouds I saw about 8 years ago! One of them in particular, that went overhead, makes that funnel look almost like a non-event, lol.

This is probably the closest I have seen to it - though it was more white.

I've never seen one for real; I keep on hoping, though ....

[VillagePlank]

Some convection kicking off, here in Erith!

[Harry]

LP seems to be developing to our SW, and the precip is now really pepping up across NW France.

[Nick F]

A small probability of heavy rain with thunder in the far SE of England tomorrow afternoon. But I am not going to hold my breath.

We really aren't in a setup recently that gives decent potential for big storms ... we need a long-wave trough/low to stall to the W with unstable warm moist air to come from the south combined with stronger winds aloft. Currently with the jet being way south over France, there's too much cool air around the UK for anything exciting other than a few rumbles of thunder. But if a few rumbles rocks your boat ...

[VillagePlank]

But if a few rumbles rocks your boat ...

My tummy's rumbling. Time for a sandwich, I reckon.

[Harry]

A small probability of heavy rain with thunder in the far SE of England tomorrow afternoon. But I am not going to hold my breath.

We really aren't in a setup recently that gives decent potential for big storms ... we need a long-wave trough/low to stall to the W with unstable warm moist air to come from the south combined with stronger winds aloft. Currently with the jet being way south over France, there's too much cool air around the UK for anything exciting other than a few rumbles of thunder. But if a few rumbles rocks your boat ...

Considering I have only heard a total of 4 rumbles this year, it most certainly would rock my boat

My tummy's rumbling. Time for a sandwich, I reckon.

Snap! My stomach has created more exciting racket than the atmosphere in 2009 thus far!

Edited June 8, 2009 by Harry

[SteveB]

A small probability of heavy rain with thunder in the far SE of England tomorrow afternoon. But I am not going to hold my breath.

We really aren't in a setup recently that gives decent potential for big storms ... we need a long-wave trough/low to stall to the W with unstable warm moist air to come from the south combined with stronger winds aloft. Currently with the jet being way south over France, there's too much cool air around the UK for anything exciting other than a few rumbles of thunder. But if a few rumbles rocks your boat ...

It does'nt rock my boat, but when you not had any storms for ages, you take whatever you can get.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Although widespread significant thunderstorms are rare in this kind of setup it is certainly possible for localised big ones to occur- like the one in Exeter on 8-9am on Saturday.

[dogs32]

Considering I have only heard a total of 4 rumbles this year, it most certainly would rock my boat

Snap! My stomach has created more exciting racket than the atmosphere in 2009 thus far!

lol.......Harry if that rocks your boat your going to be in heaven next year on Storm chase

your be like me and Reed Timmer who gets EXTREMELY excited..Success!!Success!

or in my case Rotation!!Rotation!!

if you have seen t he vid your know what Im on about

Edited June 8, 2009 by dogs32

[VillagePlank]

Although widespread significant thunderstorms are rare in this kind of setup it is certainly possible for localised big ones to occur- like the one in Exeter on 8-9am on Saturday.

Yup - but it will be isolated. Again, like yesterday, the atmosphere near the surface hasn't got much 'lift' but, for the S/E, if a lifting packet can get the 700hPa (about 4km up?) then it should keep going unless there is something stopping it higher up which needs a skew-t chart ...

[loopydreamer]

Anybody seen this? Funnel cloud in Cornwall yesterday...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/pop_...1998/html/1.stm

amazing capture

thats beautiful

i saw a funnel cloud about 5 years ago when we were out camping near somerset

chris shouted " twister?"

and i shouted back "im not bored enough to play that game"

he replied back "No... i can see a twister"

Hubby says to this day that that is the fastest he has ever seen me run

There was not much to it and it was miles away but i will never forget that time when i saw my first funnel cloud!

[maidstone weather]

Yup - but it will be isolated. Again, like yesterday, the atmosphere near the surface hasn't got much 'lift' but, for the S/E, if a lifting packet can get the 700hPa (about 4km up?) then it should keep going unless there is something stopping it higher up which needs a skew-t chart ...

there is a convergence suggested over the SE according to the GFS

[Harry]

lol.......Harry if that rocks your boat your going to be in heaven next year on Storm chase

your be like me and Reed Timmer who gets EXTREMELY excited..Success!!Success!

or in my case Rotation!!Rotation!!

if you have seen t he vid your know what Im on about

Lol, rumbles float my boat at the moment because I am so starved its ridiculous! The quietness of it all is so depressing, along with the fact every event so far has either missed me, or been completely dank!

Yes, I have indeed seen what Reed Timmer gets like - thankfully, I am not THAT extreme, however come fairly close

Looking to the South, there are some intense downpours mixed in with that weather front, but that could/probably is to do with the CAPE levels over France at the moment. However, with a convergence line developing across the SE according to MW, there may be something on offer........................................hopefully.

Edited June 8, 2009 by Harry

[maidstone weather]

However, with a convergence line developing across the SE according to MW, there may be something on offer........................................hopefully.

Don't blame me, it was the GFS i looked at

And it was tomorrow afternoon not today B)

We are experiencing the annual European Monsoon, which apparently occurs on 7 out of every 10 years on average.

[VillagePlank]

Here's a mini Skew-T tutorial. Hope you enjoy, but it should show you why something 'extra' is need to get air packets to 700hPa and convection, alone, is not enough for today.

Here it is:

Skew_T.doc

[VillagePlank]

I don't see any real chance of convective (alone) style weather on the cards for the S/E in the near future, I'm afraid. Here's the best skew-t I could find ...

Low cloud bases (950hPa), and medium size cloud tops (600hPa) but, really, that's less than 15,000ft clouds. Possible rain, but nothing special

[dave48]

A good little guide there VP, well worth doing.

And, indeed, doesn't look like much for today, been a bit of convection here but nothing special.

[Tim B]

Check this out:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/8089268.stm

I wonder when that happened exactly? As it doesn't say atm.

[dave48]

Check this out:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/8089268.stm

I wonder when that happened exactly? As it doesn't say atm.

Yeah, I saw that earlier, quite a large one too.

I think it was probably associated with the cells late afternoon, it's almost certainly a convergence zone tornado, as there was a clearly defined convergence zone across central parts. Full marks to Tony for mentioning that in his forecast too.