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Hello, I am new to this site. I am a 44 year old man who lives in the North Pennines (Cumbria/Northumberland border); I have had a strong interest in the weather for many years, and years ago I took a degree in Environmental Science from Lancaster University. Sadly my degree was not good enough, and I could not find work being a weather forecaster or contributing to weather/climate related research, and I have had a number of cleaning jobs for the last twenty years. Alas, I do make sure my knowledge about things meteorological does not go to waste- so I make my debut on this Forum with a prediction about the weather to be expected for Winter 2013/14! Although the Met Office no longer do them, I tentatively offer my predictions for the ensuing winter half-year in Britain for 2013-14 (starting from this month), based on the likely impact of Arctic Ice extent, sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and around Britain and the stage we are at in the Sunspot Cycle. On the basis of the fact that sea surface temperatures close to 50N across the North Atlantic remain well above normal after the warm summer (anomaly +2C in Sept 2013, see here:http://www.bobtisdale.wordpress.com/september-2013-sea-surface-temperature-sst-anomaly-update), but sea temperatures are near normal around Iceland this sets the scene for lower pressure over the Atlantic to the west of Britain and a stronger baroclinic temperature gradient over the North Atlantic to encourage deeper depressions: Warm south and SW winds over Britain with deep cyclonic activity south of Iceland has certainly featured through the last week- and looks to persist to the end of October 2013. Another feature of the large-scale weather pattern is the fact that the Arctic ice cap is- although larger than this time last year- remains smaller than the long-term normal extent for October. Arctic ice is at near normal levels for late October over the Canadian Archipelago but remains well north of Spitzbergen in the European sector of the Arctic (see here:http://www.nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews). The edge of the Arctic icecap- being further north than usual will encourage subarctic depressions (which tend to stay close to the intense temperature gradient between the very cold Arctic icecap and the warmer air over the open ocean and ice-free land) to move further north than usual: The higher-latitude Westerlies to the south of these depressions will thus blow in higher latitudes; from a Conservation of Angular Momentum consideration it means that the higher-latitude Westerlies will have to blow even harder to cancel out the total frictional forces of the tropical and polar easterlies- because blowing closer to the axis of the Earth's rotation the frictional torque of the Westerlies would be weakened (thus the Westerlies will have to be stronger to compensate if the move into ever-higher latitudes). The upper Westerlies and the jet-streams will also remain in fairly high latitudes (these tend to be restricted to zones of strong atmospheric temperature gradient- and if these are in higher latitudes because the Arctic Ice extent remains further north than usual then the jet-streams will follow suit): This means no hurricane-force Westerlies impacting the Pamirs, Rockies or Himalayas absorbing some of the "need" for lower-level Westerlies in the Northern Hemisphere (to cancel out the effect of easterlies elsewhere). This also points to stronger Westerlies and south-westerlies blowing across the north Atlantic from this month onwards and through the winter. The sunspot cycle peaked in 2011-12, and is now declining: This means there is likely to be less impact of solar flares causing forces to impact on the upper-atmosphere (solar flares have been known to slightly increase the overall westerly momentum of the atmosphere globally- and ultimately results in deeper subarctic depressions and stronger higher-latitude westerlies). The solar cycle entering a quiet spell would lend itself to weaker Westerlies coming off the North Atlantic; but the other factors as described above (Arctic Ice constrained in high latitudes and a warmer than usual North Atlantic going into winter) are likely to far outweigh the effect of a slightly "quieter sun". All this indicates that there will be deeper depressions forming over Newfoundland- encouraged by the strong temperature gradient between the ice-covered Canadian Arctic atmosphere and the atmosphere over a warmer NW Atlantic Ocean; these will intensify and be encouraged to move north-eastwards into the ice-free (and warmer than usual) Barents Sea. This all means stronger prevailing SW winds over Britain throughout the late autumn/winter of 2013; all of which will actively discourage the kind of blocking patterns that would send frigid Arctic or North Russian airmasses in the direction of Britain. However, I can be certain that Arctic Ice a little further south than in recent years over Arctic Canada combined with a warmer North Atlantic than usual going into the winter will make for storms: The need for stronger west and SW winds from a Conservation of Angular Momentum consideration certainly lends itself to scope for the North of Britain to get some real batterings- we are set to have some of our biggest winter storms in years. Certainly, later in the winter (December onwards) there is likely to be some short Arctic snaps from the north-west as Arctic Canada and Greenland get very cold and Arctic Highs build over them at times: These are likely to be short-lived, but there is certain to be one or two snaps around February that will bring snow even to the south and a clear night or two down to about -5C (the North and Scotland will be colder with minima locally down to around -10C- over widespread snowcover- during these Arctic snaps). In the main, however the stronger-than-usual baroclinic gradient over the North Atlantic will mean strong westerlies and SW'lies, plenty of gales and rain; although the SouthEast will escape the worst of it! Certainly until December there is going to be little frost or snow anywhere in lowland Britain; even from my home in the North Pennines I have a strong feeling (based on the manner in which potential cold-patterns with highs in the North Atlantic keep crumbling away before their forecast onset!) that persistent southerly and SW winds will keep frost at bay to the extent that for the first time in nine years I will have to wait until November to report an air frost! Contrary to what a number of the pundits might think, warm summers then Octobers tend not to be followed by cold winters. The three past years during which I had to wait until November for our first air frost (in all these years too, the summer half-year was warm),- 1989, 2001 and 2004,- were all followed by mild winters with little serious frost or snow. However, by way of disclaimer- a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event in the Arctic Stratosphere in December or January could completely rubbish my predictions- and usher in a wintry spell of exceptional severity. It was a SSW that resulted in the unexpected cold snap in January 2013. That said, SSW events tend to be more likely if the Upper Westerlies encircling the Arctic are weak- and prone to any distortion liable to put a big pool of "warm" air high over the Arctic. As I have pointed out above, I do not think the upper Westerlies are going to be weak: So one can discount all those predictions of -20C and heavy snow in January that you might have read in The Daily Mail!! Ian Pennell