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  1. The fifth tropical depression of the season has formed well to the east of the basin, at around 144E, and only about 2 degrees north of the equator. Intensity is 30kts. Convection is already building nicely over the LLCC, with banding features also evident. Shear is low, and waters warm, which should allow at least steady intensification over the next few days. A west-northwest track is expected, with 05W approaching the Philippines by day 5. It could be a typhoon by this stage, so it needs closely monitoring.
  2. The fourth tropical depression of this reletively busy and early start to the 2014 West Pacific season has formed just east of the Philippines. Winds are 25kts according to JTWC. There are limited banding features in the northern semicircle of the depression, but the LLCC is ill defined. Some slight strengthening is forecast before 04W drags across the islands of the southern Philippines, causing the depression to lose intensity. Conditions in the South China Sea are pretty hostile, so even if 04W makes it this far it will likely dissipate.
  3. The third tropical depression of the West Pacific season has formed about 300 nautical miles south-southeast of Guam. Winds are at 30kts according to both JMA and JTWC. 03W has increasingly persistant convection over the LLCC, something the system has struggled with over the last day or so. Shear is moderate, but poleward outflow is excellent, which is helping sustain the convection. Shear should ease over the next day or so, promoting strengthening. JTWC expect a peak of 55kts before 03W moves over cooler waters and higher shear again, and begins extratropical transition, expected to begin in 5 days time. 03W is currently in a weakly defined steering envrionment, but ridging to the northeast should excert more dominance over 03W over the next few days, driving the depression to the north.
  4. Tropical Depression 02W has formed just east of the southern Philippines, in the area that TS Lingling formed earlier in the month. Winds are at 25kts according to JTWC. Convection is displaced to the northwest of the poorly defined LLCC due to moderate shear. This moderately sheared environment is expected to prevent 02W from strengthening significantly as it tracks westwards towards the islands of the southern Philippines. Land interaction will serve to weaken the system in a day or so, and recovery is not expected once the system reaches the South China Sea.
  5. The first tropical storm of the 2014 West Pacific season has formed close to and just east of the Southern Philippines. The precursor to this storm's formation has dumped some very heavy rains over the southern Philippines, causing flooding here. Winds are currently at 35kts. Lingling is trapped in a weak steering environment and is currently heading on an unusual track southeast. The storm is expected to turn southwest and make landfall within the next 24 hours. The LLCC has already become exposed from the convection due to shear, so Lingling shouldn't become any stronger prior to landfall. This is not necessarily an early start to the season. Weak January tropical storms and depressions are fairly common in this basin, particularly at low latitude.
  6. A late season tropical depression has formed in the West Pacific, 369 nautical miles west-northwest of Guam. Winds are estimated to be at 30kts. The depression has some moderately deep convection in the eastern quadrant of the LLC. Shear is increasing over the depression has it recurves northeastwards, and as a result, strengthening will be limited prior to the imminent onset of extratropical transition as 33W runs into cooler waters within the next 24hrs. 33W may briefly become a tropical storm prior to the transition.
  7. The twentyninth tropical depression of the 2013 West Pacific typhoon season has formed roughly 700 nautical miles east of Manila, Philippines. The depression has winds of 30kts. 29W has shallow convection which is gradually becoming better organised about the tightning LLC. Conditions ahead look favourable for intensification, as 29W heads west-northwestwards along the south side of a strong subtropical ridge to the north. Shear is low, and waters are warm east of the Philippines. Therefore, 29W will likely become a typhoon prior to landfall in Luzon in around 2 days time. Crossing the rugged terrain of Luzon will take some strength out of 29W, but re-intensification could occur in the South China Sea (SCS), as waters are also warm here, and shear looks to stay relatively low. 29W should continue west-northwest across the northern SCS and then make a second landfall, this time on Hainan Island, as a typhoon if the conditions allow. A third landfall is then expected after 29W crosses the Gulf Of Tonkin and makes landfall near Hanoi, Vietnam. These three areas need to closely watch 29W, as flooding rains and damaging winds are a serious threat from this system.
  8. Yet another tropical depression in this active October in the West Pacific has formed, and is located well out in the far east of the basin, nearly 1000 miles east of Guam. Winds are 30kts currently. Convection is expanding over the LLCC, and banding features are taking shape, so it won't be long before 28W is a tropical storm IMO. Shear is low, waters are warm and there is plenty of moisture for 28W to tap into. So, again, we may see a fairly intense typhoon in the West Pacific from this system. The subtropical ridge to the north of the depression will be the primary steering influence. 28W is forecast to move west-northwestwards then turn north as it reaches the western extent of the ridge. By day 4, weakening should begin as 28W runs into high shear.
  9. Another tropical depression has formed in this late flurry of activity in the West Pacific. Tropical Depression 26W is located near Guam, and has actually formed near enough in the same spot Wipha did. The depression has winds of 25kts currently, but has persistant, deep convection and formative banding features, particularly in the southern quadrant. The depression is moving to the southwest in low level flow, but will soon be strong enough to be steered by a building ridge to the northeast, sending 26W northwestwards in a few days. Low shear, warm sea temps and good outflow should allow 26W to become quite an intense typhoon over the next several days.
  10. Tropical Depression 27W has formed well to the north-northeast of Guam and northeast of Super Typhoon Francisco. Winds are 25kts currently. Some deep convection has persisted over the LLCC, prompting JTWC to upgrade to a tropical depression. However, the long term future for the depression looks bleak. Shear is increasing due to the outflow from Super Typhoon Francisco, and 27W is forecast to be dragged towards the much larger and stronger cyclone and will probably be absorbed in less than 2 days. Given the increasing shear, significant intensification appears unlikely.
  11. The active period continues in the West Pacific, with another tropical depression, 25W, forming just southwest of Guam. The depression has convection building nicely near the LLCC. Strengthening is expected as shear is low and waters warm. The depression is expected to move northwest, then north then northeast around the south, west and north sides of a steering ridge anchored to the northeast. 25W is forecast to become a typhoon before recurving northeast out to sea.
  12. Tropical Depression 24W has formed east of the Philippines. Winds are currently at 30kts according to JMA, and 25kts according to JTWC. Convection is persisting over the LLCC, with some limited banding features forming too. Shear is low, and waters warm. Therefore, 24W is expected to strengthen. Ridging to the north is expected to push 24W on a near straight westward track, right into the Philippines. JTWC forecast 24W to become a typhoon prior to landfall. Weakening will obviously occur as the cyclone crosses land, but conditions look favourable in the South China Sea for some re-intensification. Vietnam may be in line 24W's second landfall, but this is at least a week away yet so it is uncertain.
  13. Tropical Depression 23W has formed, over 200 nautical miles east-northeast of Guam. 23W is a small tropical depression with winds of 30kts, and some deep convection over the LLCC with limited banding. 23W is moving west, north of Guam, along the south side of a ridge to the north. The depression will approach a weakness in the ridge in a day or so, and turn towards the northwest towards Okinawa. 23W is expected to intensify over the next several days as shear remains low and waters warm, and 23W is expected to be a typhoon in the vicinity of Okinawa. The exact track is uncertain, but after crossing or moving very near to Okinawa, 23W is expected to push north towards South Korea.
  14. Another one out in the Philippines: http://www.rappler.com/nation/special-coverage/weather-alert/40202-20130930-am-weather-update http://www.sunstar.com.ph/breaking-news/2013/09/30/tropical-depression-quedan-moves-away-phl-slowly-306015
  15. Tropical Depression 20W has formed in the South China Sea (SCS), just west of the Philippines. The depression has winds of 30kts. There is some weak banding south of the LLCC, but convection is lacking directly over the centre at present. Shear is low, and waters are warm along track, so strengthening is expected. Ridging to the north is expected to guide 20W generally west over the next few days, and 20W is expected to make landfall in Vietnam near the city of Hue. Exact landfall location is subject to change, but Vietnam need to be wary of this one, as it may have time to strengthen into a typhoon prior to landfall.
  16. Tropical Storm Pabuk has formed, roughly 300 miles southeast of the island of Iwo To, Japan. Pabuk is a very large tropical storm with winds of 40kts. Because of Pabuk's large size, strengthening will probably be slow, although the low shear and warm along track sea temps do support intensification. Pabuk is currently moving northweswards alongbthe southwest side of a steering ridge but should move north then northeast out to sea as it rounds the western extent of the ridge. Pabuk is forecast to peak at cat 1 typhoon intensity before weakening begins in cooler waters to the north.
  17. After a week long lull in West Pacific activity, Tropical Storm Man-Yi has formed well south of Japan. The 35kt tropical storm is a broad storm with possibly multiple LLCC's struggling to consolidate. As shear is low and waters are warm, Man-Yi should at least slowly intensify as the broad storm slowly tightens. Man-Yi will move west along the south side of a ridge before a trough breaks down the ridge and recurves Man-Yi northeastwards towards eastern Japan. Man-Yi is expected to peak at minimal typhoon intensity on approach to Japan.
  18. The fifteenth tropical depression of the season has formed roughly 150 miles west of Okinawa, and northeast of Taiwan. 15W has winds of 25kts and some deep convection over an elongated LLC. The depression is currently in an area of low shear and marginal sea temps. 15W is forecast to head northeastwards then north as a ridge builds to the east. This will take the depression west of Japan into much cooler water, initiating extratropical transition. Thereafter, 15W will impact Japan as an extratropical depression.
  19. A cold core low in the far east of the West Pacific basin at high lattitude has aquired tropical characteristics and been upgraded to Tropical Storm Yutu, with winds of 35kts. The storm has some modest convection to the south of the mainly exposed LLCC. Yutu is not expected to strengthen tropically, and will soon become extratropical as it races northeastwards. Intetestingly, Yutu will move across the international dateline into the Central Pacific. It has been some time since a tropical cyclone has crossed the dateline from west to east. Seems to be a year for dateline crossing storms (Pewa, Unala and 03C crossed it east to west last month).
  20. Tropical Storm Kong-Rey has formed just east of the Philippines overnight, with winds of 35kts according to JMA. Some shear is affecting the system, as evidenced by the almost entirely exposed LLCC on the northeast edge of an area of deep convection. Shear may ease a little over the next few days, allowing slow strengthening. Ridging to the east will steer Kong-Rey northwards parallel to the coast of Luzon and east of Taiwan over the next day or two followed by a track northeast as Kong-Rey reaches the northwest periphery of the ridge. As this turn occurs, shear will rise further, causing weakening as the system begins to approach Japan.
  21. Tropical Depression 12W has formed, a few hundred miles east-southeast of Taiwan, and nearly 400 miles south-southwest of Okinawa. Convection is steadily increasing near the LLCC, but there is no evidence of banding features yet. Winds are at 30kts. The depression is moving southeastwards currently but is expected to swing northeast then back northwest and west towards northern Taiwan over the coming days. This is due to a rather interesting scenario of Fujiwara Interaction with Tropical Depression 13W to the northeast. The east and then northeast motion is expected due to a small ridge to the south, then the swing north and back west is forecast due to direct binary interaction with TD 13W. 12W is expected to be the dominant system, and possibly absorb 13W. Though this is the more favoured solution, it is possible that instead 13W will absorb 12W. The resultant system is forecast to become a typhoon over warm waters and low shear as it moves westwards towards northern Taiwan along a newly built ridge to the north. As ever with Fujiwara Interaction, there is much uncertainty. Other scenarios include the systems not merging at all if they manage to keep a fair seperation distance.
  22. Tropical Depression 13W has formed, nearly 100 miles east-northeastwards of Okinawa. The small depression has winds of 25kts, and some deep convection covering the LLCC. 13W is forecast to move westwards initially, followed by a southwards turn east of Taiwan as the system begins a Fujiwara Intercast with Tropical Depression 12W, currently to the southwest. As 13W is the smaller of the two systems, it is expected to be absorbed by TD 12W. The resultant system is then expected to reach typhoon strength whilst closing in on northern Taiwan. Some stregthening is expected of 13W over the coming days, but as it gets dragged towards 12W, shear could cause it to weaken. An alternative scenario is that 13W could remain far enough away from 12W for absorption not to take place, but this is not considered a likely scenario at this time. Even though the JTWC forecast shows 13W reaching typhoon strength by day 5, this strength is expected to be achieved after the two systems have merged into one. 13W's track: 12W's track:
  23. Tropical Depression 11W has formed a few hundred miles north-northeast of Pilau, and well east of the Philippines. Sustained winds are 30kts. Convection is currently lacking over the system's centre, but there are curved banding features taking shape which should allow the convection to wrap towards and over the LLCC. Conditions are very favourable for development, with low shear, warm sea temps and good outflow. JTWC forecast rapid intensification as a result, and expect 11W to become an intense typhoon. The track forecast is concerning too. A ridge to the north is expected to push 11W west-northwestwards towards Luzon over the coming days, and 11W is expected to landfall as a significant typhoon in about 84hrs time. Then, 11W is expected to turn towards the northwest as the cyclone reaches the western extent of the ridge, and strengthen yet further before a second landfall near Hong Kong, China. The track, as always, is subject to change, but it looks like we may have a proper typhoon to track unlike the many weak storms the West Pacific has produced so far, barring Soulik. The curved bands evident do suggest that this one could ramp up quickly, which is obviously not good for those in it's path.
  24. The tenth tropical depression of the West Pacific season formed in the central South China Sea (SCS) yesterday, and has since become Tropical Storm Mangkhut, with winds estimated to be at 35kts by JMA. The track is very similar to TS Jebi's, but just further to the southwest. The storm is very broad in nature, with sprawling bands and little deep centralised convection. This suggests strengthening will be slow- however it's worth noting that Jebi looked very similar and managed to strengthen quite rapidly to near typhoon intensity as it approached Hainan Island last week. I'm not saying Mangkhut will do the same but there is a small chance of a similar strengthening episode, as shear is low and waters warm. The most likely outcome however, is for slow strengthening, perhaps to a mid-range tropical storm of about 45 or 50kt intensity. Ridging to the northeast and east if expected to guide Mangkhut to the northwest over the coming days, through the northern SCS into the Gulf Of Tonkin, roughly parallel to the coast of central and northern Vietnam. As Mangkhut is a large storm, rains will be felt through northern Vietnam, Hainan Island and the neighbouring Chinese coast. Mangkhut is expected to make landfall in northern Vietnam in a couple days time.
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