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The RSMC La Reunion has started issuing advisories on newly-developed tropical depression 15. The system formed in the central Indian Ocean, about midway between Madagascar and Indonesia. The system consists of a strong, well-defined (though somewhat fragmented) band wrapping into the LLCC (low level circulation center) from the south. The LLCC appears to be located on the eastern side of the convective band located to its west, near 16S, 79E (as from CIMSS). Dvorak satellite image of TD 15. Unfortunately, the coverage of high-resolution satellite pictures over the southwestern Indian Ocean is somewhat poor. TD 15 is currently tracking southeastward toward cooler SSTS (sea surface temperatures). La Reunion expects the system to briefly become a moderate tropical storm (though, given the satellite picture, it already looks like a well-developed tropical storm), before becoming quickly extratropical as the system bends toward the south encountering even lower SSTS. The track from La Reunion can be seen below: Track forecast of TD 15 by RSMC La Reunion. The JTWC has issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system, and I expect them to upgrade this system to a tropical cyclone soon. Sources: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96S/96S_floater.html http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/meteoreunion2/ http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/# -
MeteoFrance have declared the next tropical depression, to the northeast of Severe Tropical Storm Edilson, and a few hundred miles south of Diego Garcia. Convection is increasing over the LLCC, with formative banding features becoming evident. JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert. Shear is low and waters are warm, so tropical depression 11 should strengthen decently as it heads southeastwards.
