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I done a post showing the main dynamics leading to the developments within this system Delving further to the rarity of this starting with the MSLP aka sea level pressure which for those of us with our own weather stations is the pressure recordings those will be reading we're looking at All of Ireland and Scotland being at least within the top %0.5 percentile with a few spots likely seeing record low pressure for this date in July. Most of England being at least top %10 percentile 500hpa will also be at least within top 10 for all of the UK + Ireland and upto the top 0.5% in a swathe from Ireland through North England &Scotland Rainfall which circulates round the Eastern flank will be in the top 90-95/97.5 percentile of rarity Fair estimates the lowest recordings will be somewhere in Ireland with decent model concensus of at least 986hpa The UKMOHD deepens further to 983hpa Really wish the Met Office had easily accessible public data akin to the NWS in the USA which would make it easy to find date records for all weather measurements but the research I've been doing shows the Irish ALL TIME record July minimum pressure being 978hpa so using the above I'm confident we'll be within 8hpa (986) and with further strengthening a la UKMOHD potential for being super close to an ALL TIME record. For the UK as a whole the records show the current ALL TIME record being 967.9hpa but you have to bear in mind this is for the Northern Isles which tend to be much more susceptible for deeper systems and this scenario is for a huge area of the mainland, with 988hpa seeming probable for a wide area of Scotland Would be really cool if everyone with their own weather station especially across Ireland and Scotland (all areas of the UK are appreciated just these areas are the highest likelihood of seeing such low hpa values) could post their minimum pressure readings that this system brings. Also highly likely wind could bring damage for the southern flank, Feel free to post reports and general chat regarding conditions within the low
A rare combination of snow and cloudless skies in Surrey at the partially-frozen fishing lake below Betchworth Castle, Surrey. 25 January 2021.
