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A new thread to bring us up to date and take us through Autumn moving ever closer to Winter! The first batch of wet & windy weather has already made it's presence felt over the last 24 hours, the beginning of next week is also looking very wet and very windy especially for the N&W of the UK. Discuss the potential for any stormy weather which may affect the UK. Post charts & analysis, keep us up to date with reports of whats happening in your local area and how the bad weather is affecting you. Lets keep it civil, stay on topic and enjoy! I wonder what the rest of Autumn has in store for us....
The general situation now is we have a deep low pressure on the scene, NAE surface pressure: A southwesterly flow that is unstable is bringing frequent lines of showers (call them streamers if you like) these are very heavy downpours some thundery and some could contain hail, also very windy. I want to throw in the lifted index from GFS the yellow showing the unstable airmass moving into the SW: There has recently been thunderstorms in the SW. These unstable conditions spreading more over the BI today, I'm showing the LI charts as this will enhance the downpours this morning increasing the potential for thunderstorms and so more intense rainfall. please see the convective thread for more on the thunder. Currently there are some intense lines of thundery downpours of rain as seen on the latest radar, these are affecting much of England (particularly SW) and parts of S-Wales too. EURO4: Lines of precipitation, especially the SE and it's here where the most prolonged showers could affect today. NAE: The model indicates some potentially disruptive rainfall over parts of the south, with IOW, Hampshire, Sussex and Kent also Surrey and London areas potentially severe weather today, and also the next day needs watching closely too. For Western Scotland, ppn models indicating high ppn amounts here today. UKMO: This is for Wednesday 8th ^^ NAE accumulation 00z +48: (just updated the map to inclu SW for the deeper oranges after radar review) My map is based on latest radar and ppn accm charts for today and tomorrow. (Please note that I have put deeper orange over Southern areas due to radar review and downpours and thunderstorms currently active in places and expected to continue today, more prolonged rainfall at times over the next 48hrs over Southern UK) Also note that high ppn is shown to affect Western Scotland over the next 36-48hrs too) ESS.
Starting a new thread on the rainfall/precipitation from now and into the new year. This thread is to focus on the precipitation. The storm systems continue to sweep in from the Atlantic in the days ahead with disruption likely and with the continued and increased risk of more floods. Here is the Accumulated ppn charts from 3 models starting with GFS, these are up to Wednesday morning 1 January on New years day. GFS: EURO4: NAE: It is more likely than not that some areas would see the amounts indicated on these models, if I post the written data from the EURO4 model: EURO4 DATA SW England-Devon and Cornwall, Wales 30mm+ South coast of Ireland possibly 30mm N-Wales - 40mm+ Southern England 12-15mm possibly a bit more in places parts of Eastern Scotland-Grampian, Edinburgh and the Borders 30mm+ Northern England-Cumbria- 40mm - 50mm+ West Scotland -Glasgow, Ayrshire and Lanark, Dumfries&Galloway - 30mm - risk of 40-50mm+ Irl of Man - 30-40mm It's looking very wet for many through tomorrow. I have used the 3 models to create a map on where the heaviest rainfalls could occur, inside the yellow zoned area is where heavy rainfall is most likely on Tuesday (tomorrow) within the orange zoned area the highest risk of the heaviest accumulated rainfall up to Wednesday morning with the deeper orange blobs where the largest totals are indicated. Warning map is for Tuesday 31 December: ESS