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Found 11 results

  1. It's May, the sun is (mostly) shining, and the festival is a little over 6 weeks out. Naturally my thoughts turn to obsessively poring over anything @J10 and the rest of you good netweather people have to say about it. Last year it was a scorcher in Pilton... but there wasn't a festival. I'm not saying that the weather gods owe us one or anything but... you know... make it shine please. So, what do you think?
  2. I realised we talk a lot about the weather generally, on here and across the UK but one thing that is rarely mentioned is the UV index so my first question is; Do you guys know whether we have ever recorded a UV index of 9 here in the UK? I see many places as far north as Nottingham will be hitting 8 next week provided there are clear skies and many times I've known the UV to hit 8 in London, most years we get atleast 7-10 days I'd say but surely somewhere on the south coast will have hit 9 on a few accasions. I also regularly check www.temis.nl which gives a clear sky UV index forecast which over many years I've come to realise is generally is out by 1UV. They are forecasting 7.5 in London next week which if I'm right would mean 8.5 and surely the south coast could hit 9 by that reasoning? Any thoughts or facts would be interesting to hear. Thankyou
  3. This is my final blog for Glastonbury 2016; however there will official forecasts appearing shortly on the Net Weather website to keep you all up to date.I will also try to contribute a little to the Glastonbury blog a little over the next few weeks. This blog will again feature the NOAA surface pressure charts and the latest ensemble forecast, and while it is still far too early to get any accurate picture, we can perhaps get an idea of the weather leading into Glastonbury. NOAA Pressure Charts 6-10 Days The trend was for low pressure to start to influence the weather over the UK; however these latest charts suggest more of a dominating pattern as opposed to an influence. 8-14 Days The trend of the last update was for Low pressure to be in charge over the UK, but there were hopes that the influence of the Low Pressure was starting to reduce, as the deepest of the low pressure moved away to the North West. However the last couple of days show the Low Pressure dominance as much as ever. As these charts now cover the period towards the start of the festival, this is starting to look a little ominous. Ensembles Pressure There is solid agreement in things turning very unsettled into next week and if the Glastonbury festival opened its doors next week, it would most likely be a soggy affair. However is set to rise back to around 1020mb by the start of the festival, so perhaps things turning a little better. Rainfall Into next week, and rainfall amounts are set to rise as mentioned above. As we move towards the Glastonbury festival, things turning a little drier and although not completely dry. Temps The trend is far temps to fall next week, but perhaps a slight signs of things warming up a little before the festival, but no clear pattern as of yet. Met Office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcn4fpj2y#?fcTime=1465430400 Through the weekend (before Glastonbury festival) and into the following week the northwest is likely to see much of any further rain, with the southeast expected to see drier conditions. Settled weather is most likely across north and northwestern areas through late June and early July. Southern and southeastern areas are more likely to see drier, warmer and sunnier conditions. Through the period this trend to more settled conditions is then expected to extend to most parts of the country. Summary The theme is for things to get better closer to Glastonbury, the big question is will things get better in time for the festival, fingers crossed it will, and I hope everyone going to the festival has a great time.
  4. Hello all, As we all know, the UK is currently in a heatwave (July 27th). It is remarkable so far for not only its strength of the heat but the duration of the heatwave too (Since around June 19th to July 27th (Current),). The media is reporting interviews from UK meteorologists, asking why we are currently in a heatwave, with many answering that it is due to the jet stream marandering North to the UK, thus allowing hot air from a situated high-pressure system over Central Europe to divert up North towards the UK. That's all fine and dandy, but I ask "Why is the Jetstream maraundering North and why is it currently so weak?" So, what do you guys think? Why are we experiencing such a strong heatwave? As in, what weather drivers are causing it to happen in the first place? Let's get this discussion going!
  5. So what are your thoughts about the Glastonbury festival 2017, will it be a washout or a heatwave, or as is often the case a mixture of the two, often on the same day. This years forecasts will start in the next week or so and run all the way until the festival (after last years blip).
  6. This update concentrates on the NOAA pressure charts and the ensemble charts for the Somerset area. This will enable us to see what the current projections are to the run up to the festival. NOAA Updates Looking firstly at the 6-10 day outlook we can see the High Pressure scenario initially favoured being slowly edged away to the North and East, however without the Low Pressure starting to dominate as the longer term (8-14 day) outlooks would have suggested. Next onto the 8-14 outlooks, this continues the theme of turning unsettled from the South West, and by the 2nd June run (covering 10-16th June) has low pressure over the UK. However the latest run (4th June covering – 12th to 18th June) although still having low pressure around the UK, moves the centre of the low pressure away to the North West. With more a NW flow over the UK rather than a SW flow. So a trend to a slight improvement and possibly reverting back to something a little more settled before Glastonbury starts. Ensemble Runs Pressure The ensembles tend to suggest pressure dropping over the next week to average 1005mb, but then tending to rise close to 1015mb by around the 21st June. Precipitation All runs show some precipitation for Somerset for much of the 2 weeks running up to the festival, some runs show some heavy rain at times, but most go for moderate rain at worst. Temperatures Currently the 850Hpa temps are around +10c, which are giving temps above 20c, over the next week or so these are set to fall back to +5c at 850Hpa, with maybe a slight increase before the festival. Met Office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/area/south_west_england Looking rather unsettled for the mid part of June, but with some drier sunnier periods between the spells of rain. Into late June and early July, Turning generally drier, warmer and sunnier to the south and east, although still with a risk of some rain or showers at times. Temperatures improving over the period,so mild to warm. Summary If the Glastonbury festival was due to start a week earlier, I might be a little concerned for the festival weather, however the weather is set to improve towards the end of June, but will this come before or even during the festival period. My guess at this stage would be for a getting better sort of festival, with a better weekend than the runup. But if last year is anything to go by, things will frequently change before then.
  7. This is the second blog for Glastonbury 2016. This will be largely concentrated on the NOAA charts over the past few days. Unfortunately they still do not run all the way to the start of the festival, but the longer term runs, now go up to 15th June,so about a week before the door opens. So perhaps we can start to see trends emerging. I will also look at the ensembles which now start to cover the start of the festival, a massive caveat in that these tend to change widely over time. 6-10 days These charts show the current general High Pressure pattern remaining in control, with winds perhaps turning more to the South East, warming things up a little. 8-14 days These charts are showing a slightly different picture, with the High Pressure being replaced by low pressure edging in from the South West turning things somewhat unsettled. Met Office UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Jun 2016 to Thursday 30 Jun 2016: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/area/south_west_england (Link) This suggests starting unsettled more especially for Southern and Western parts of the UK, presumably due to the lower pressure here, which ties in with the themes above. However it then suggests that while the overall weather remains rather mixed, but the best of the drier and brighter weather towards the south of the UK, where it will be warmer, this is quite positive for the Glastonbury festival period. Ian's Monthly Outlook Ian has done his regular excellent monthly forecast and it is well worth a read, the general theme is quite similar, but some differences in timings. (link below) http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=monthly;sess= Ensembles (GFS) These largely go with the theme of largely settled for the next week, turning unsettled for the following week, but again what follows? Outlook These charts of course can change, and indeed they did flip around somewhat last year but the general trend is for more unsettled conditions around a week before the festival, and if this transpires, will they revert back to something a little drier before the festival. The next update over the weekend might give some clues.
  8. Here is the first initial blog for the Glastonbury festival 2016. This will take the form of information from a number of sources. Of course this far out, it is very much an indicative look at best, and there will be many ups and downs to the forecasts. CFS Long Term – (Net Weather) The past two weeks of these runs have been attached. In each case the pattern from left to right is June forecast (23 May) June forecast (29 May) July forecast (23 May) July forecast (23 May) Precipitation June Rainfall generally around average, with July rainfall slightly above average. Temperatures June temps rising from slightly above average to above average. July temps stay at slightly above average. Pressure June Pressure slightly above average, more especially for Northern areas. July Pressure better in the south in the latest run. CFS (Meteociel) As ever there is a mix, but the general theme is for pressure to be slightly above average for both June and July, temps are set to be around or slightly above average. Rainfall is set to be below average for June, but for July the theme is for rainfall to be around average. Met Office and NOAA 6-10 day 8-14 days These both tend to agree with the general theme of High Pressure for the UK for the start of June. However this is centred towards the north of the UK. However as we move later into June, there are signs of lower pressure edging into the South West of the UK. Overall Quite a decent start to the forecasts, but still a very long time to go. The next update will be mid week probably Wednesday, and will tend to focus more on teh NOAA forecasts as per above.
  9. This is the second blog for the 2015 Glastonbury festival [24 to 28 June], the roller coaster continues. At this stage we are still using long term models, but from next week the beginning of the festival period is coming into long term GFS range, so this blog will reflect that. However, for this week we are using the same models as last week. 1. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Net Weather Extra] 2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra] 3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com] [b]1. CFS Monthly Charts[/b] [b]June[/b] The pressure charts show a slight positive anomaly but not massively significant, the temperature charts continue to be above average, especially for northern parts of the UK, with rainfall to be around average for most southern areas. [attachment=251540:June 15 Pressure 31 May.png] [attachment=251541:June 15 Rainfall 31 May.png] [attachment=251542:June 15 Temps 31 May.png] [b][b]July [/b][/b] The pressure charts show pressure above average for all of the UK, but not hugely. Temps above average moreso for northern areas and a slightly bigger positive anomaly compared to last week. Rainfall around average, but above average in the Midlands areas, so overall a slight tendency towards above average rainfall. [url="https://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_05_2015/blogentry-213-0-68936000-1432493711.png"][attachment=251537:July 15 Pressure 31 May.png] [attachment=251538:July 15 Rainfall 31 May.png][attachment=251539:July 15 Temps 31 May.png][/url] [b]2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra][/b][code=auto:0] Date read 18-23 June 24-28 June 24/05/2015 Ridge of HP over UK to start, then LP edging in from West West winds and zonal to start before HP builds over weekend 25/05/2015 Weak area of LP to start, then LP to west of UK West winds and flat pattern to start, then HP for start of weekend 26/05/2015 HP over N of UK being edged away by weaker pressure to South Pressure slowly building with weak High Pressure by weekend 27/05/2015 Unsettled with LP over UK LP over East to start, but flabby High building over UK 28/05/2015 Generally Unsettled to start but HP builds over UK HP to start but LP develops over UK 29/05/2015 LP to the west to start, but HP builds over UK for a time HP to the NE but LP edges in from the SW giving unsettled weather 30/05/2015 LP to start, but HP builds over the UK slowly HP slowly weakens, but pressure remains High to N and W. Less for the SE[/code][code=auto:0] Date read Summary Winds Temps Rain Out of 10 24/05/2015 Mild, Damp and Unsettled SW to W Light Orange / Orange Damp Wed-Thurs, Dry Weekend 7.5 25/05/2015 Mostly Dry and Warm SW to var Light Orange / Deep Orange Damp Wed Showery Thursday, Dry thereafter 8.0 26/05/2015 Mostly Dry and Very Warm NE to E Deep Orange Mostly Dry but odd shower possible 8.5 27/05/2015 Mostly Dry and warming up NE to E Yellow to Orange Showery, but risk diminishing over time 8.5 28/05/2015 Cool, dry until Sunday NE to NW Deep Orange to Light Orange Dry to start, rain Sunday 7.0 29/05/2015 mild, wet from Thursday E to SE Orange Dry to start, bands of rain from Thursday 4.0 30/05/2015 Warm, mostly Dry E to NE Light Orange / Orange Odd shower possible, but mostly dry in West 8.0[/code] When compared to last weeks runs listed here -> [url="https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4887-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-1/"]https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4887-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-1/[/url] These are a big improvement. By my ratings, which are entirely subjective, they have gone from 5.1 out of 10to 7.4 [b]3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com][/b][code=auto:0] Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast Pressure Temperature Pressure Temperature CFS Run JUNE z500 PRMSL 850HPa Temp 2m Precipitation z500 PRMSL 850HPA Temp 2m Precipitation 23 May Yellow +8/+9 +3/+4 +3c/+4c +3c Light Blue White +6(SW)/+18(NE) +2 (SW)/+9(NE) +3c(SW)/+5c(NE) +2c(SE)/+4c(NW) Light Blue Gen, white Midlands /SE 24 May Yellow +7/+8 +3/+4 +1c/+2c +1c/+2c Blue +6 (E)/ +8 (W) +2(N/S)/+4(Cen) +1c(SW)/+2c(NW) +0c(SE)/+4c(NW) Light Blue/Blue Generally 25 May Yellow +3/+4 +4/+5 -1c/-0c -1c/-0c Blue +2(SE)/ +8(NW) +4 (SE)/+8(NW) -1c(SW)/-0c(NW) -1c(SE)/+2c (N) Light Blue/Blue Generally 26 May Yellow -4/-3 -1 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Light Red -1(SW)/ +1(NE) -1 (SE)/-0(NW) -1c(SW)/+1c(NE) -0c(SE)/+2c(NW) White / Red Southern areas 27 May Yellow +2/+3 -1 +1c/+2c +1c/+2c Light +1(SW)/ +4(NE) -2 (SW)/+1(NE) +1c (S)/+3c (N) +1c (S)/+3c (N) White/Blue 28 May Yellow +0/+1 +5 -2c/-1c -1c/-0c Blue/Deep Blue -2(NE)/ +2 (W) +2 (NE)/+5(SW) -2c(SE)/-1c(Gen) -1c(SE)/+1c(NE) Blue/Deep Blue Gen, white Midlands 29 May Yellow +4/+5 +2/+3 +0c/+1c +0c/+1c White/ Light Red +3 (W)/ +6 (E) +2 (W)/+3 (E) -1c (W)/+1c (E) -0c (S)/+2c (N) Blue/White South, Red Wales/Midlands [/code][code=auto:0] [/code][code=auto:0] Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast Pressure Temperature Pressure Temperature CFS Run JULY z500 PRMSL 850HPa Temp 2m Precipitation z500 PRMSL 850HPA Temp 2m Precipitation 23 May Yellow +1/+2 +0/+1 +0c/+1c +1c/+2c Red +0 (W)/ +2 (E) +0/+1 +0c(SW)/+1c(NE) +2c(SE)/+4c (N) Red Generally 24 May Yellow +5/+6 -2/-1 +4c/+5c +4c/+5c Red/Deep Red +2(SW)/+10(NE) -2(SW)/+6(NE) +3c(NE)/+4c(SW) +2c(SE)/+6c (NW) Red/Deep Red 25 May Yellow +2/+3 +2/+3 -0 +0c/+1c Light Blue +2(SW)/ -2 (N) -0 -0 -0c(SE)/+2c (NE) Light Blue South, Light Red midlands 26 May Yellow -7/-6 -4/-3 -2c/-1c -1c/-0c Red / Deep Red -6 (S)/ -2(NW) -2(S/N)/-3(Cen) -1c(SW)/+0c(NE) -1c(SE)/+4c (N) Red / Deep Red 27 May Yellow +0/+1 +1/+2 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Light Blue -1(SE)/ +3(NW) +1 (SE)/+3(NW) -1c (S)/+1c (N) -0c(SE)/+4c (N) Light Blue South, Light Red midlands 28 May Yellow -4/-3 -3/-2 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Red / Deep Red -4(SW)/ +1(NW) -2 (SW)/+2(NW) -0 -0c(SE)/+2c (NW) Red / Deep Red 29 May Yellow -5/-4 -2/-1 -1c +0c/+1c White/ Light Red -5(SW)/ -1(NW) -2 (SE)/-0(NW) -1c (S)/+0c (N) -0c(SE)/+4c (N) White/Light Blue S areas, Red Midlands [/code] I have added a PDF will all the figures from the spreadsheet, and a few things are noticeable. [attachment=251548:Glastonbury 2015 29 May.pdf] 1. On the whole, the Meteociel CFS charts are not quite as positive as they were a week ago. 2. June is looking a whole lot better for settled weather than July. [b]Summary[/b] The CFS Monthly Charts (NW Extra) show no real change from last week , the daily CFS (NW Extra) show a big improvement from last week while the CFS Meteoceil runs are slightly worse, with an indication than June should be better than July. Overall not a bad set of runs this week.
  10. The heat wave of March 2012 is a very forgotten one of recent years, mainly because of the very cool and very wet end to spring and the summer that followed it. March 2012 was a very warm and very dry month overall, however it was made more notable for the heat wave that arrived on 24 March and dissipated on 1 April. 20C was widely reached, more or less everywhere in the UK, every day of the heat wave, with temperatures peaking at 23.6C (74.5F) in Aboyne, Scotland, on 27 March. This was some 12-15C above average for the time of year.
  11. Time for the latest update, Please get involved on the dedicated Glastonbury forecast thread on the main forum here [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-4#entry2714670"]http://forum.netweat...-4#entry2714670[/url] Forecast models notably GFS had forecast in the region of 25-50mm of rain for the Glastonbury area over the past few days, needless to say this has not remotely occurred, this will have big implications going forward. [b]General Theme[/b] There will be unsettled weather across the UK on Saturday as a Low Pressure system moves eastwards across the UK and this will provide some moderate rainfall for Glastonbury. On Sunday the low pressure system is set to weaken and move steadily North Eastwards, south western pars of the UK are likely to have some of the best weather, but some showers are still possible, these becoming increasing isolated and lighter as the day progresses. High Pressure is slowly set to push in from the South West next week, giving mostly dry and settled conditions, how dominant this becomes and whether it will last until the end of the festival, will be discussed as per each model run later. [b]GFS Operational Runs[/b] Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1024mb), the ridge continues to edge further north by Wednesday, with the 06Hz run pushing it a bit further north, the 12Hz run has low pressure a bit closer to the North West of the UK. By Friday, the 06Hz has edged the low pressure closer to the NW of the UK with a weak ridge over the UK, while the 12Hz has an area of High Pressure coving southern UK. Sunday sees low pressure over the UK on Sunday, while the 12Hz keeps a ridge of High Pressure over Southern and Western areas, a bit a little bit unsettled to the North East. In terms of rainfall from Monday onwards both runs are pretty dry from the Monday through to the Thursday with only the off shower. The 06Hz run has a little bit or rain forecast on Firday with perhaps something a little bit more substantial on the Sunday. The 12Hz shows a little bit of rain over the weekend, but not rally amounting to that much. Charts shown in order 06Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June) [attachment=175316:GFS 20 06 2.JPG] [attachment=175315:GFS 20 06 3.JPG] [attachment=175314:GFS 20 06 4.JPG] [attachment=175313:GFS 20 06 5.JPG] Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June) [attachment=175329:GFS 20 12 2.JPG] [attachment=175328:GFS 20 12 3.JPG] [attachment=175327:GFS 20 12 4.JPG] [attachment=175326:GFS 20 20 5.JPG] Rainfall Next 6 days The 06Hz run has 7-8mm of rain forecast, the 12Hz run shows around 10mm of rain, nothing substantial really. [attachment=175312:Rmgfs144sum 20 1.gif] [attachment=175325:Rmgfs144sum 20 2.gif] [b]GFS Ensembles[/b] Both sets of ensembles look largely dry, especially the 12Hz run, pressure is set to rise steadily next week to around 1030mb before dropping back to around 1020mb towards the end of the festival, the 12Hz is slower with this pressure drop off, there are very few rainfall spikes, so while the festival may not be bone dry, no real significant rain is expected, any rain that does fall is more likely over the weekend. 06Hz run [attachment=175333:GEFS 20a 1.png] [attachment=175334:GEFS 20a 2.png] [attachment=175332:GEFS 20a 3.png] [attachment=175331:GEFS 20a 4.png] 12Hz run [attachment=175345:GEFS 20b 1.png] [attachment=175346:GEFS 20b 2.png] [attachment=175343:GEFS 20b 4.png] [attachment=175344:GEFS 20b 3.png] [b]ECM [/b] Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1025mb), the ridge extends up to Northern Scandinavia by Wednesday, and while the 12Hz had a more robust feel, both runs make far more of the ridge than GFS, both runs also keep any low pressure further away to the North West. Friday sees High Pressure over southern areas in both runs with Low Pressure to the North West, the 06Hz run has the High Pressure a bit further north. For the weekend The 06Hz run looks to keep low pressure away to the North East, while the 12Hz run moves it a bit further south, so a greater chance of something more unsettled to end the festival with the 12Hz run, with low pressure and NW winds on this run. But generally though a mostly dry festival before this. Charts shown in order 00Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June) [attachment=175320:ECM 20a 96.gif] [attachment=175319:ECM 20a 144.gif] [attachment=175318:ECM 20a 192.gif] [attachment=175317:ECM 20a 240.gif] Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June) [attachment=175339:ECM 20b 96.gif] [attachment=175338:ECM 20b 144.gif] [attachment=175337:ECM 20b 192.gif] [attachment=175348:ECM 20b 240.gif] [b]Upper Charts[/b] [attachment=175351:610day.03 20.gif] [attachment=175350:814day.03 20.gif] Continues to go with the theme of High Pressure over western or close to western areas. [b]Summary [/b] The pre festival rainfall is now forecast to be 10mm or less, and together with most of the festival looking dry, things are looking up. Pressure is steadily set to build over the UK from the South West from Monday onwards, with a good deal of settled weather expected until probably Friday. Some op runs continue to go for unsettled weather towards the festival weekend and that is something to keep an eye in future runs, the ensembles show a slow but steady fall back in pressure over the weekend, but no support for things to break down. [b]Ratings :- [/b] Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7/10 Looking Dry for the start of the festival, an increased risk of some rain over the weekend Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 6/10 With the site currently in good condition and low to moderate at worst rainfall expected between now and at least next Friday, the risk of a mud bath is reduced significantly from recent days. Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 5.5/10 Currently temps mid teens/low 20s, perhaps a bit cooler over the weekend [b]Newspaper Taglines [/b] Bring your suncream and sunglasses as it may well be a mostly dry festival, especially to start, perhaps hire those wellies as you may be able to get your money back on unused goods.
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