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  1. It's May, the sun is (mostly) shining, and the festival is a little over 6 weeks out. Naturally my thoughts turn to obsessively poring over anything @J10 and the rest of you good netweather people have to say about it. Last year it was a scorcher in Pilton... but there wasn't a festival. I'm not saying that the weather gods owe us one or anything but... you know... make it shine please. So, what do you think?
  2. I realised we talk a lot about the weather generally, on here and across the UK but one thing that is rarely mentioned is the UV index so my first question is; Do you guys know whether we have ever recorded a UV index of 9 here in the UK? I see many places as far north as Nottingham will be hitting 8 next week provided there are clear skies and many times I've known the UV to hit 8 in London, most years we get atleast 7-10 days I'd say but surely somewhere on the south coast will have hit 9 on a few accasions. I also regularly check www.temis.nl which gives a clear sky UV index forecast which over many years I've come to realise is generally is out by 1UV. They are forecasting 7.5 in London next week which if I'm right would mean 8.5 and surely the south coast could hit 9 by that reasoning? Any thoughts or facts would be interesting to hear. Thankyou
  3. Hello all, ? As we all know, the UK is currently in a heatwave (July 27th). It is remarkable so far for not only its strength of the heat but the duration of the heatwave too (Since around June 19th to July 27th (Current),). The media is reporting interviews from UK meteorologists, asking why we are currently in a heatwave, with many answering that it is due to the jet stream marandering North to the UK, thus allowing hot air from a situated high-pressure system over Central Europe to divert up North towards the UK. That's all fine and dandy, but I ask "Why is the Jetstream maraundering North and why is it currently so weak?" ? So, what do you guys think? Why are we experiencing such a strong heatwave? As in, what weather drivers are causing it to happen in the first place? Let's get this discussion going! ?
  4. So what are your thoughts about the Glastonbury festival 2017, will it be a washout or a heatwave, or as is often the case a mixture of the two, often on the same day. This years forecasts will start in the next week or so and run all the way until the festival (after last years blip).
  5. This is the second blog for the 2015 Glastonbury festival [24 to 28 June], the roller coaster continues. At this stage we are still using long term models, but from next week the beginning of the festival period is coming into long term GFS range, so this blog will reflect that. However, for this week we are using the same models as last week. 1. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Net Weather Extra] 2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra] 3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com] [b]1. CFS Monthly Charts[/b] [b]June[/b] The pressure charts show a slight positive anomaly but not massively significant, the temperature charts continue to be above average, especially for northern parts of the UK, with rainfall to be around average for most southern areas. [attachment=251540:June 15 Pressure 31 May.png] [attachment=251541:June 15 Rainfall 31 May.png] [attachment=251542:June 15 Temps 31 May.png] [b][b]July [/b][/b] The pressure charts show pressure above average for all of the UK, but not hugely. Temps above average moreso for northern areas and a slightly bigger positive anomaly compared to last week. Rainfall around average, but above average in the Midlands areas, so overall a slight tendency towards above average rainfall. [url="https://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_05_2015/blogentry-213-0-68936000-1432493711.png"][attachment=251537:July 15 Pressure 31 May.png] [attachment=251538:July 15 Rainfall 31 May.png][attachment=251539:July 15 Temps 31 May.png][/url] [b]2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra][/b][code=auto:0] Date read 18-23 June 24-28 June 24/05/2015 Ridge of HP over UK to start, then LP edging in from West West winds and zonal to start before HP builds over weekend 25/05/2015 Weak area of LP to start, then LP to west of UK West winds and flat pattern to start, then HP for start of weekend 26/05/2015 HP over N of UK being edged away by weaker pressure to South Pressure slowly building with weak High Pressure by weekend 27/05/2015 Unsettled with LP over UK LP over East to start, but flabby High building over UK 28/05/2015 Generally Unsettled to start but HP builds over UK HP to start but LP develops over UK 29/05/2015 LP to the west to start, but HP builds over UK for a time HP to the NE but LP edges in from the SW giving unsettled weather 30/05/2015 LP to start, but HP builds over the UK slowly HP slowly weakens, but pressure remains High to N and W. Less for the SE[/code][code=auto:0] Date read Summary Winds Temps Rain Out of 10 24/05/2015 Mild, Damp and Unsettled SW to W Light Orange / Orange Damp Wed-Thurs, Dry Weekend 7.5 25/05/2015 Mostly Dry and Warm SW to var Light Orange / Deep Orange Damp Wed Showery Thursday, Dry thereafter 8.0 26/05/2015 Mostly Dry and Very Warm NE to E Deep Orange Mostly Dry but odd shower possible 8.5 27/05/2015 Mostly Dry and warming up NE to E Yellow to Orange Showery, but risk diminishing over time 8.5 28/05/2015 Cool, dry until Sunday NE to NW Deep Orange to Light Orange Dry to start, rain Sunday 7.0 29/05/2015 mild, wet from Thursday E to SE Orange Dry to start, bands of rain from Thursday 4.0 30/05/2015 Warm, mostly Dry E to NE Light Orange / Orange Odd shower possible, but mostly dry in West 8.0[/code] When compared to last weeks runs listed here -> [url="https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4887-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-1/"]https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4887-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-1/[/url] These are a big improvement. By my ratings, which are entirely subjective, they have gone from 5.1 out of 10to 7.4 [b]3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com][/b][code=auto:0] Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast Pressure Temperature Pressure Temperature CFS Run JUNE z500 PRMSL 850HPa Temp 2m Precipitation z500 PRMSL 850HPA Temp 2m Precipitation 23 May Yellow +8/+9 +3/+4 +3c/+4c +3c Light Blue White +6(SW)/+18(NE) +2 (SW)/+9(NE) +3c(SW)/+5c(NE) +2c(SE)/+4c(NW) Light Blue Gen, white Midlands /SE 24 May Yellow +7/+8 +3/+4 +1c/+2c +1c/+2c Blue +6 (E)/ +8 (W) +2(N/S)/+4(Cen) +1c(SW)/+2c(NW) +0c(SE)/+4c(NW) Light Blue/Blue Generally 25 May Yellow +3/+4 +4/+5 -1c/-0c -1c/-0c Blue +2(SE)/ +8(NW) +4 (SE)/+8(NW) -1c(SW)/-0c(NW) -1c(SE)/+2c (N) Light Blue/Blue Generally 26 May Yellow -4/-3 -1 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Light Red -1(SW)/ +1(NE) -1 (SE)/-0(NW) -1c(SW)/+1c(NE) -0c(SE)/+2c(NW) White / Red Southern areas 27 May Yellow +2/+3 -1 +1c/+2c +1c/+2c Light +1(SW)/ +4(NE) -2 (SW)/+1(NE) +1c (S)/+3c (N) +1c (S)/+3c (N) White/Blue 28 May Yellow +0/+1 +5 -2c/-1c -1c/-0c Blue/Deep Blue -2(NE)/ +2 (W) +2 (NE)/+5(SW) -2c(SE)/-1c(Gen) -1c(SE)/+1c(NE) Blue/Deep Blue Gen, white Midlands 29 May Yellow +4/+5 +2/+3 +0c/+1c +0c/+1c White/ Light Red +3 (W)/ +6 (E) +2 (W)/+3 (E) -1c (W)/+1c (E) -0c (S)/+2c (N) Blue/White South, Red Wales/Midlands [/code][code=auto:0] [/code][code=auto:0] Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast Pressure Temperature Pressure Temperature CFS Run JULY z500 PRMSL 850HPa Temp 2m Precipitation z500 PRMSL 850HPA Temp 2m Precipitation 23 May Yellow +1/+2 +0/+1 +0c/+1c +1c/+2c Red +0 (W)/ +2 (E) +0/+1 +0c(SW)/+1c(NE) +2c(SE)/+4c (N) Red Generally 24 May Yellow +5/+6 -2/-1 +4c/+5c +4c/+5c Red/Deep Red +2(SW)/+10(NE) -2(SW)/+6(NE) +3c(NE)/+4c(SW) +2c(SE)/+6c (NW) Red/Deep Red 25 May Yellow +2/+3 +2/+3 -0 +0c/+1c Light Blue +2(SW)/ -2 (N) -0 -0 -0c(SE)/+2c (NE) Light Blue South, Light Red midlands 26 May Yellow -7/-6 -4/-3 -2c/-1c -1c/-0c Red / Deep Red -6 (S)/ -2(NW) -2(S/N)/-3(Cen) -1c(SW)/+0c(NE) -1c(SE)/+4c (N) Red / Deep Red 27 May Yellow +0/+1 +1/+2 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Light Blue -1(SE)/ +3(NW) +1 (SE)/+3(NW) -1c (S)/+1c (N) -0c(SE)/+4c (N) Light Blue South, Light Red midlands 28 May Yellow -4/-3 -3/-2 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Red / Deep Red -4(SW)/ +1(NW) -2 (SW)/+2(NW) -0 -0c(SE)/+2c (NW) Red / Deep Red 29 May Yellow -5/-4 -2/-1 -1c +0c/+1c White/ Light Red -5(SW)/ -1(NW) -2 (SE)/-0(NW) -1c (S)/+0c (N) -0c(SE)/+4c (N) White/Light Blue S areas, Red Midlands [/code] I have added a PDF will all the figures from the spreadsheet, and a few things are noticeable. [attachment=251548:Glastonbury 2015 29 May.pdf] 1. On the whole, the Meteociel CFS charts are not quite as positive as they were a week ago. 2. June is looking a whole lot better for settled weather than July. [b]Summary[/b] The CFS Monthly Charts (NW Extra) show no real change from last week , the daily CFS (NW Extra) show a big improvement from last week while the CFS Meteoceil runs are slightly worse, with an indication than June should be better than July. Overall not a bad set of runs this week.
  6. The heat wave of March 2012 is a very forgotten one of recent years, mainly because of the very cool and very wet end to spring and the summer that followed it. March 2012 was a very warm and very dry month overall, however it was made more notable for the heat wave that arrived on 24 March and dissipated on 1 April. 20C was widely reached, more or less everywhere in the UK, every day of the heat wave, with temperatures peaking at 23.6C (74.5F) in Aboyne, Scotland, on 27 March. This was some 12-15C above average for the time of year.
  7. Time for the latest update, Please get involved on the dedicated Glastonbury forecast thread on the main forum here [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-4#entry2714670"]http://forum.netweat...-4#entry2714670[/url] Forecast models notably GFS had forecast in the region of 25-50mm of rain for the Glastonbury area over the past few days, needless to say this has not remotely occurred, this will have big implications going forward. [b]General Theme[/b] There will be unsettled weather across the UK on Saturday as a Low Pressure system moves eastwards across the UK and this will provide some moderate rainfall for Glastonbury. On Sunday the low pressure system is set to weaken and move steadily North Eastwards, south western pars of the UK are likely to have some of the best weather, but some showers are still possible, these becoming increasing isolated and lighter as the day progresses. High Pressure is slowly set to push in from the South West next week, giving mostly dry and settled conditions, how dominant this becomes and whether it will last until the end of the festival, will be discussed as per each model run later. [b]GFS Operational Runs[/b] Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1024mb), the ridge continues to edge further north by Wednesday, with the 06Hz run pushing it a bit further north, the 12Hz run has low pressure a bit closer to the North West of the UK. By Friday, the 06Hz has edged the low pressure closer to the NW of the UK with a weak ridge over the UK, while the 12Hz has an area of High Pressure coving southern UK. Sunday sees low pressure over the UK on Sunday, while the 12Hz keeps a ridge of High Pressure over Southern and Western areas, a bit a little bit unsettled to the North East. In terms of rainfall from Monday onwards both runs are pretty dry from the Monday through to the Thursday with only the off shower. The 06Hz run has a little bit or rain forecast on Firday with perhaps something a little bit more substantial on the Sunday. The 12Hz shows a little bit of rain over the weekend, but not rally amounting to that much. Charts shown in order 06Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June) [attachment=175316:GFS 20 06 2.JPG] [attachment=175315:GFS 20 06 3.JPG] [attachment=175314:GFS 20 06 4.JPG] [attachment=175313:GFS 20 06 5.JPG] Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June) [attachment=175329:GFS 20 12 2.JPG] [attachment=175328:GFS 20 12 3.JPG] [attachment=175327:GFS 20 12 4.JPG] [attachment=175326:GFS 20 20 5.JPG] Rainfall Next 6 days The 06Hz run has 7-8mm of rain forecast, the 12Hz run shows around 10mm of rain, nothing substantial really. [attachment=175312:Rmgfs144sum 20 1.gif] [attachment=175325:Rmgfs144sum 20 2.gif] [b]GFS Ensembles[/b] Both sets of ensembles look largely dry, especially the 12Hz run, pressure is set to rise steadily next week to around 1030mb before dropping back to around 1020mb towards the end of the festival, the 12Hz is slower with this pressure drop off, there are very few rainfall spikes, so while the festival may not be bone dry, no real significant rain is expected, any rain that does fall is more likely over the weekend. 06Hz run [attachment=175333:GEFS 20a 1.png] [attachment=175334:GEFS 20a 2.png] [attachment=175332:GEFS 20a 3.png] [attachment=175331:GEFS 20a 4.png] 12Hz run [attachment=175345:GEFS 20b 1.png] [attachment=175346:GEFS 20b 2.png] [attachment=175343:GEFS 20b 4.png] [attachment=175344:GEFS 20b 3.png] [b]ECM [/b] Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1025mb), the ridge extends up to Northern Scandinavia by Wednesday, and while the 12Hz had a more robust feel, both runs make far more of the ridge than GFS, both runs also keep any low pressure further away to the North West. Friday sees High Pressure over southern areas in both runs with Low Pressure to the North West, the 06Hz run has the High Pressure a bit further north. For the weekend The 06Hz run looks to keep low pressure away to the North East, while the 12Hz run moves it a bit further south, so a greater chance of something more unsettled to end the festival with the 12Hz run, with low pressure and NW winds on this run. But generally though a mostly dry festival before this. Charts shown in order 00Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June) [attachment=175320:ECM 20a 96.gif] [attachment=175319:ECM 20a 144.gif] [attachment=175318:ECM 20a 192.gif] [attachment=175317:ECM 20a 240.gif] Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June) [attachment=175339:ECM 20b 96.gif] [attachment=175338:ECM 20b 144.gif] [attachment=175337:ECM 20b 192.gif] [attachment=175348:ECM 20b 240.gif] [b]Upper Charts[/b] [attachment=175351:610day.03 20.gif] [attachment=175350:814day.03 20.gif] Continues to go with the theme of High Pressure over western or close to western areas. [b]Summary [/b] The pre festival rainfall is now forecast to be 10mm or less, and together with most of the festival looking dry, things are looking up. Pressure is steadily set to build over the UK from the South West from Monday onwards, with a good deal of settled weather expected until probably Friday. Some op runs continue to go for unsettled weather towards the festival weekend and that is something to keep an eye in future runs, the ensembles show a slow but steady fall back in pressure over the weekend, but no support for things to break down. [b]Ratings :- [/b] Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7/10 Looking Dry for the start of the festival, an increased risk of some rain over the weekend Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 6/10 With the site currently in good condition and low to moderate at worst rainfall expected between now and at least next Friday, the risk of a mud bath is reduced significantly from recent days. Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 5.5/10 Currently temps mid teens/low 20s, perhaps a bit cooler over the weekend [b]Newspaper Taglines [/b] Bring your suncream and sunglasses as it may well be a mostly dry festival, especially to start, perhaps hire those wellies as you may be able to get your money back on unused goods.
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