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  1. Here are the current Papers & Articles under the research topic Global Warming. Click on the title of a paper you are interested in to go straight to the full paper. See also Arctic; Antarctic; Arctic Warming/Amplification for papers specifically on those regions. A real-time Global Warming Index Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records Atmospheric Dynamics Feedback: Concept, Simulations, and Climate Implications Global Warming and ENSO – A “Helter-Skelter” Atmosphere Global Warming and Hurricanes Projected SSTs over the 21st century: Changes in the mean, variability and extremes for large marine ecosystem regions of Northern Oceans
  2. Dear All Thought that, in the light of COP21 in Paris that produced lots of hot air and an absence of commitment to specific measures to steer the World towards carbon neutral within 50 years I would kick off the New Year of 2016 with discussion about what happens in 50 years' time if CO2 levels are still rising past 550 ppm and global temperatures reach dangerous levels above pre-industrial levels: To Geoengineer or not to Geoengineer, that is the question. And if we do Geoengineer and cannot get measures past the United Nations do we form a Coalition of The Willing- say the UK, USA, Canada, Germany and France- to commit to specific measures to reduce global temperatures (like H-bombs over remote Pacific islands, securing and bringing to Earth asteroids then firing at the south-side of Arctic mountains at noon in June to reduce the tilt of the Earth and keep high latitudes cool enough to preserve ice-fields)?? Are the risks of doing nothing and allowing mean global temperatures to rise high enough to cause massive methane outpourings from the Siberian Tundra, to cause the Greenland and West Antarctica Ice-sheets to disintegrate raising sea-levels by over 10 metres worse than risking some [unintended] consequences of carefully planned operation to halt global temperature rise?? I am assuming that we in the West do all we can to reduce CO2 emissions and to lean on emerging markets as much as possible to do the same in the interim and we still fail (in fifty years' time- by which time things will start getting serious) to get global CO2 emissions to half what they are now. If that's the case do we just continue trying to get the global community to respond and do nothing else except continue to have summits (Brasilia in 2030, Chennai in 2045, the Harare Cool Earth Summit in 2064, perhaps!) in which the world's Government continue their hand-wringing saying "Something Must Be Done To Save Earth!" without any collective willingness to commit to specific measures? Lets get all the brains together to see what if, this comes to pass, we should do. You might think that we should not to anything but adapt to a much warmer Earth with most of England getting a climate more akin to the hills of NW Portugal today. Plans for evacuating London, Newcastle, Liverpool; getting all British homes equipped with air-conditioning to cope with long periods in July and August with a humid 35C and to take in refugees from much of Africa that will simply become too torrid for human civilizations anyone?? I do not think that this situation arising is far-fetched because the specific measures that Western and fast-developing economies would require to get them carbon-neutral in fifty years will be totally unacceptable to large percentages of their respective electorates and such policies would plunge the economies concerned into recession: In other words their governments will cave in and refuse to implement the necessary policies unless of course they are dictatorships like Mao tse Tung or Robert Mugabe, or the governing parties want to be voted out of office for good! On the other hand we do, in my view, have a little more time than most models suggest because natural variations in the Sun's output predicted to occur over the next 30 years (a number of solar physicists believe the Sun is about to enter a quiet Maunder-Minimum type phase during which its output drops by up to 0.5%). Other factors such as worldwide man-made aerosol pollution from fast-developing countries like China, Brazil and South Africa will slow down the rate that rising CO2 levels leads to higher global temperatures. But developing countries will learn to clean up their smoke-stacks in time and the Sun will increase in strength to current levels (or more) after 2060 so complacency will be costly.
  3. Hello folks and Happy New Year to you all. I just want to throw something up which might be very interesting because I have just read a book called "Dark Winter" written by John Casey. John Casey heads up the Space and Science Research Corporation (SSRC) in the USA, he has done extensive work studying Sunspot Cycles. We are all familiar with the 11-year Sunspot Cycle (known as the Schwabe Sunspot Cycles), but there is also a 206-year cycle and a 1200-year cycle. It is Dr Casey`s conclusions that these cycles conspire to produce a 30-year spell stating after 2015 when the Sun will be very, very quiet, that the proportion of the short-wave energy from the Sun that reaches the surface and lower atmosphere will fall by 1% compared to recent years as a result. As a consequence there will be global cooling caused by changes in the Sun`s output and we will have conditions in Britain as cold as they were in the early 1800s when Frost Fairs were held on the Thames. Dr Casey, and a number of respected scientists working independantly from around the World, concur with this prediction that the energy reaching the Earth`s surface is about to drop leading to a global cooling of 1 to 1.5C. Neither Dr Casey nor the scientists whose work he cites believe that the global climate is as sensitive to increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere that either the IPCC or other scientists who are government-unded would have us believe. As for myself, what matters is independant scientific opinion and findings built up through the rigorous application of science, and then taking all the parameters into consideration before cpmong to conclusions about the future direction of our climate. Six years ago I started writing a thesis (almost finished- but other things cme along and I have not actually completed it): This thesis analysed the effect of a 2C global warming from the mean global temperatures in the 1970s on the climate in different parts of the World, my contention was that as the Arctic ice continued to shrink and the oceans warm that the main weather belts (subtropical high, Westerlies and subpolar depression tracks) would shift poleward a few degrees and that the Westerlies strengthen slightly- leading to warm and dry summers in southern Britain but wetter, milder and stormier winters across the countrz and wetter, warmer summers in Scotland. This certainly ties in with the weather-patterns of late 2013 and 2014 and (earlier) most of the 1990s and 2000s. In recent years I have read plenty of material (I have read Christopher Booker- he of the Sunday Telegraph- his book "The Real Global Warming Disaster") and now this book written by John Casey of SSRC. He has also written a book called "Cold Sun" though i do not have and have not read it. Meanwhile the BBC and those at the Met Office and (of course) the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) who in their fifth report maintain that the serious threat in the future is from manmade Global Warming (AGW it is referred to). All these organisations maintain unless stronger concerted action is taken to stem rising CO2 levels the World will reach a "tipping point" by mid-century. With these conflicting accounts of the future climate globally (and regionally) it is best to go back to science and do theresearch and maths from everything that we can find. As a meteorologist you will (probably) have come across the book "Atmosphere, Weather and Climate" (Barry and Chorley, latest Ed. 2003). I have used this a lot to try and make sense of where we are going and to make regional\seasonal predictions. It is very thorough and covers the global circulation, treatment of the Sun, cloud and local microlclimates: All of the content is rigorous and well-researched and it has stood the test of time. The first edition came out in the 1960s. There is a dedicated chapter on Climatic Change and reference is made to the likely effect of a doubling of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere compared to pre-industrial times. There is the consensus in the scientific comunity that doubling CO2 levels would cause a 3.5C warming of the global climate (compared to pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm). That means that when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere reaches about 550 ppm by volume the World would get 3.5C warmer than it would with CO2 level at 280 ppm. This is according to the Global Circulation Models that already take into account feedback effects (and I must emphasise this point). The publication just referred to also makes detailed references to the initial "forcing" effect of doubling CO2 levels from pre-inductrial levels being about 6 to 8 Watts per aquare metre of extra heat being trapped in the radiation emitted to space by the Earth`s surface. Using Stefan`s Law on radiation, given the effective black-body temperature of the Earth being about -18C, this would lead to a global temperature rise of just 2C (and can I emphasise that the feedbacks will only come into play to push the Earth up to 3.5C warmer if this is the only forcing influence on the global climate- it is not!). CONTINUED)
  4. Hi After such a wet month as January 2014, I decided to look at what evidence there was for an increase in incidence of extreme rainfall events across the United Kingdom. The best way to do this as far as I can see is to use the daily records that make up the UKP datasets and which are maintained and made freely available by the Met Office. They split the country up into nine sub-regions and provide daily values back to 1931 for each. On top of this they have 3 sets of composite regional values for Scotland, Northern Ireland and England Wales as well. The report contains graphs with an annual count of days with more than 12.7 mm of rain, and days with more than 25.4 mm of rain from 1931-2014, with the obligatory moving average and trend for all the UKP sub-regions. (1) Central England (2) E Scotland (3) SW England & S Wales (4) NE England (5) N Scotland (6) NW England & N Wales (7) SE England ( S Scotland (9) England & Wales (10)N Ireland I'll let you decide if global warming is the cause of the increase over England and Wales, and if it is, why has there been a decrease over the north of Scotland since 1931? xmetman
  5. Hi I've been delving into the temperature climate records again by means of the CRUTEM4 data series, and put together nine graphs from seven continents that you might find of interest in the global warming debate... As usual they can be found at my blog: http://xmetman.wordpress.com/2013/08/12/nine-graphs-that-might-just-change-the-way-you-think/ Bruce.
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