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Weather Preferences

  1. February 1978 was a cold and snowy month that featured one of the most intense blizzards in recorded history. The month started with temperatures close to average - westerly winds dominated until the 6th. Gales on the 1st/2nd sent ships adrift. Changes began on the 7th as winds started to blow in from the continent. Freezing fog becamee difficult to clear and temperatures started to plummet. The 9th began a four day streak of temperatures remaining below zero. The C.E.T. from the 8th to the 21st averaged -0.4. Snowfall totals during this period included 15cm across Kent from snow showers on the 9th, 20-25cm at Dundee and Edinburgh by the 12th (the heaviest snowfall there since 1955) and undrifted snowfall totals between 50-80cm in NE England/SE Scotland by the 13th. The largest totals were yet to come - the Atlantic began advancing forward on the 15th allowing weather fronts to track across southern England, instantly turning to snow as they hit the frigid air. Unusually, the cold block held the mild air at bay. It was as the block held the Atlantic low pressure systems at bay when the lowest temperatures occured. Across deep snow cover, the temperature fell to -21degC at Braemar on the 15th; -17degC was also achieved in the city of Edinburgh on the 17th. However, it would get colder. The second advancement of low pressure in the Atlantic lead to perhaps the most intense blizzards in UK history on the 18th/19th. The block allowed low pressure to undercut and draw in gale force easterly winds filled with moisture. This lead to apocalyptic blizzards across the southwest, a place usually sheltered from cold and snow. Level snow accumulated to depths of around 60cm at Dartmoor and Exmoor and 85cm at Nettlecomb in Somerset, though drifts of up to 6 metres were reported widely across Somerset & Dorset. Elsewhere, Cardiff saw 34cm with 8 metre drifts. Many lives were sadly lost in the exceptional blizzard. The coldest temperature came on the final day of the freeze; -22degC at Keith (Grampian Region) on the 20th. Also on the 20th came heavy freezing rain in the south, adding to an already wintry scene. After this the cold relented and the low pressures in the Atlantic could finally pass through. In a complete twist, the rest of February 1978 was very mild and 15degC was recorded in London on the 23rd. The rapid thaw caused a great deal of flooding. However, some remote parts of the SW remained cut off from civilization until the 24th. The rest of the month featured a mixture of mild, cloudy and foggy weather and occaisonal thunderstorms brought in on southerly winds. Overall, February 1978 has a C.E.T. of 2.8, the coldest February since 1969. A very mild final week meant the month wasn't overall that cold in the record books, similar to January 1982. The U.K. wasn't alone this month as a ferocious Nor'easter gave a historic dumping of snow across the east coast of the USA from the 5th to the 7th (similar to the recent Nor'easter across Boston, January 2022); the second in a trio cluster of extremely cold winters across NA from 1976-77 to 1978-1979; you can read about that extensively elsewhere. Share your memories of this month!
  2. 125 years ago, Britain was suffering through one of the most unpleasant looking autumns I can find in the record books. An exceptionally wet September, the fifth coldest October on record & a very cold November. To set the scene, the first half of 1896 had been remarkably dry. The previous winter had been bone dry & apart from a wet March, the spring proved to be even drier. Then summer only provided average rainfall. To top it off, it had also been a mild winter & spring and June was exceptionally warm. We hadn't had a notably wetter than average month since Jul. 1895; drought! First signs of change came in August, which while not wet, was cold with a C.E.T of 14.3. The first signs of change came on the 25th/26th with a divebombing low pressure system introducing rain and cold northerly winds. This would set the scene for the next couple of months. Let's start with... September, 1896 Extremely wet with frequent gales and rather cool temperatures. It was the wettest of any month since Oct. 1891. Sunshine was in very short supply too, with large swathes recording 60-70% of their average. Even the sunniest (to average) places, such as Stornoway, recieved 85% of their average. The C.E.T stands at 13.1. This, to me, looks like a classic case of mild nights but very cool days, backed up by how dull it was. Early September generally featured weak pressure over and to the south of the country with rather cool weather, showers and thunderstorms. A more sustained push from the Atlantic came on the 9th. This was the warmest part of the month, though few places exceeded 21degC. It became cooler on the 13th when the SW flow got cut off. The second half of the month became very cold with weather more akin to November with deep areas of low pressure, unusually so for September, crossing the UK in succesion. The chart for the 25th looks exceptionally wet. A real soaker! The final day of the month saw pressure rise, perhaps giving false hope for a fine October, but it was not to be... October, 1896 Spectacularly cold, with a C.E.T. of 6.9; the fifth coldest October. A very changeable month with many gales and an unusual excess of lightning and thunder. Sunshine was once again in short supply, the strange exception being the southwest and southern coasts. Brighton recorded 141% of their average sunshine. Despite this, the first week of the month was actually quite mild, showing how exceptionally cold the second-half was. Winds generally came from the Atlantic and were strong to gale force. Cold air flood south during the 9th/10th, introducing much colder -5 upper air temperatures across all of Scotland and into N England. The 10th and 11th saw widespread falls of snow, particularly in the north. Crazy by modern standards! It then goes into a very blocked pattern mid-month. I imagine this must have been very dull, chilly, raw and wet. Northerly winds persisted for the entire rest of the month, with many falls of snow, particularly in the north, a regular occurence. On the night of the 24th/25th the temperature dipped tp 17degF/-8degC. Severe penetrating frosts for the time of year were common everywhere Winds veered NE for months end. That takes us into the final month... November, 1896 Another very cold month, though a flick through the archives doesn't look spectacular, one has to remember that it was a lot easier to get cold weather under high pressure. The C.E.T. stands at 4.3. Speaking of high pressure, the dry theme of 1896 came back! A very dry month with one fourth of the average rainfall across the south and west, though some big thunderstorms occured on the 1st and the 19th. Sunshine was in excess, being a very sunny November. An unstable and quite cold flow from the northeast to start the month, continuing the sharp frosts from late October, then briefly dry and fine under high pressure before a cold NE flow bringing snow on the 7th/8th. The 9th to the 14th was somewhat milder with winds reverting to a west direction, but not overly unsettled as pressure remained high. The 14/15th was the only truly unsettled period of the month, though not a normal Atlantic driven set up, the flow is NW/SE. Another quite mild period came, but high pressure came back to rule the roost by the 21st. This was quite mild in the north with temperatures reaching the mid-teens celsius. It turned much colder at months end with easterly winds. This is when the coldest temperatures of the month were recorded, the coldest being 18F at Braemar (not as cold as Octobers minimum!). Quite random, but that chart for the 30th of November reminds me a lot of New Year's Day 2002. Overall... Sept. 1896 is currently the 6th wettest September on record, while Nov. 1896 is the 10th driest on record! Oct. 1896 is the 5th coldest on record. Autumn, 1896 is the 10th coldest on record. Only 1919 and 1952 have been colder since. After such a cold autumn, the following winter wasn't much to write home about, but not complete interest. The winter of 1896/1897 was changeable. December was mostly very mild but with a very cold snap in the run-up to Christmas. Jan. 1897 was cold, especially in the second half, but Feb. 1897 was very mild everywhere.
  3. This warm September is good cause to make a thread regarding this unusual pair of months, and why those wanting a cold October need not despair! After an indifferent summer, Sept. 1895 was a very warm month with a C.E.T. of 15.4. It was warmer than July! Nights were close to normal but by day, Sept. 1895 ranks 2nd hottest, only beaten by 2006. It was also a very dry month with an average rainfall of 23.3mm. Much of the south of England had barely any rainfall and most fell during thunderstorms on the 6th/7th. Unsurprisingly, it was also a very sunny month. Many stations recorded their sunniest September on record at the time. Hastings recorded 171% average sunshine. A warm pattern is established very early on with a hot push of southerly winds on the 2nd. The very few traces of rain fell courtesy of weak pressure associated with hot southeasterly winds on the 6th. This feature was so weak that by the following evening, pressure had already rose, thereby killing off any thunderstorms. I can't find any reports on any individual storms but apparently they were juicy! A briefly more unsettled period followed but high pressure was never far away from the southeast. High pressure was dominant again by the 15th and was going nowhere fast. Upper air temperatures fluctuated during this period but days stayed warm. A brief spell of colder weather, albiet still dry, came on the 20th. This was the coldest part of the month with frosts in the Scottish mountains. The coldest weather was very shortly followed by the warmest. September from this point was entirely HP dominated with very warm southerly winds. There were some unusually hot temperatures recorded, record breaking for the time, with temperatures in excess of 27C recorded in many places. In some areas, the month was over 3 degrees above the then-average. The comes October... October, 1895 was an exceptionally cold October, being one of the coldest on record with a CET of 7.1. Rainfall was unremarkable at 113.3mm. The month was mostly just very cold, with no remarkable falls of rain or gales reported. Despite the cold, sunshine was once again above average, notably so in places. However, the month began very warm with the remnants of Septembers heat. 25C was recorded at Hillington on the 1st. An active cold front swept in on the 2nd, probably accompanied by heavy rain, gales and thunder. This would have felt very shocking after a month of fine weather. It then stayed generally very unsettled. It wasn't until the 16th that the true nature of the month came to be, as cold air swept south, albeit within high pressure. By the 22nd, strong northern blocking and low pressure in the Azores let very cold air in from the Artic region. From the 22nd to the 29th, snowfall was widespread, particularly in the north and west. Temperatures were very cold, particularly at night, and on the 23rd/24th and the 28th-30th temperatures got down as low as -8C at Llandovery, -7C at Blackpool and Carlisle. Amazingly, the following October would be colder, but that autumn deserves its own thread which I may do next. While November, 1895 wasn't a particularly interesting month, it's notable for being warmer than the preceding October. It's generally a mild and wet month with lots of low pressure and SW winds, but it has a very short but fairly intense cold snap on the 24th with a great deal of snow. It has a CET of 7.5 and an average of 122.2mm The following winter of 1895/1896 turned out to be a mild but exceptionally dry winter.
  4. There was a very short-lived but intense cold snap at during the first 6 days of Feb. 1912 Most of the winter had been mild, including the first-half of January, but there were signs of a change by the 15th with a big area of high pressure to our east. By the 18th, cold air across the north gave a foot of snow thanks to a SE wind A week of cold & frosty weather followed, but a very cold NE flow was beggining to establish by the 25th. Temperatures fell rapidly, with -3C daily C.E.T. values by months end. Notice the intense blocking across Iceland & Greenland. Into the first week of February an exceptionally cold pool of air spilled down from the Artic via blocking over Iceland, giving a severe spell of cold weather. On the 4th, -21C was recorded at West Linton in E. Scotland. The first 6 days of February averaged -2.5C. From the 2nd to the 5th, temperatures across the country were widely into minus double digits, even close to -10 as far south as Folkestone & Bexhill. Daytime temperatures struggled well below zero. A foot of snow fell at Durham. I believe the snowfall was more showery in nature, but records show a widespread coving of 4-6 inches across the country. In many places it's said to have been the most severe spell of ice since 1895.. but it wasn't to last. By the 7th the low pressure had blown up, forcing much milder southerly winds, bringing an end to the cold snap. The rest of the month turned exceptionally mild with winds often from the southwest. It also was very low pressure dominated, so a wet month too. The first 6 days averaged -2.5, the 7th to the 28th averaged 7.5C(!). The overall C.E.T. for the month was 5.4. The coldest days 3rd & 4th, at -4.3 & -5, the warmest the 27th & 28th at 11.1 & 10.5. Reminds me a lot of Feb. 2021. Actually a warmer month than 2021 though & 2021 recorded a colder temperature. The rest of the year wouldn't prove to be so great, so will 2021 follow the same path? Time will tell!
  5. Ian Docwra

    Snow Moon

    Home in NE Surrey. Snow fell heavily on 24 January 2021 and the sky cleared that night to allow a waxing gibbous moon to shine brightly.

    © Ian Docwra

  6. Good morning all! Still cant get into my old account but here are some photos of the past 3 or 4 days here in Latvia. Some from Riga and the rest from rural Latvia in Berzpils (25-30km from Russian border). Will be here until 1st and flying back in the evening. Currently snowing lightly although not on radar but a good 6 to 10 inches... perhaps more in places. Expecting a little more snow over the next couple of days and temperature may get above 0c so may see a little snow melting but currently -3.5c. May add some more photos in the coming days. Have a very merry Christmas one and all! Blake
  7. With a potential cold end to winter and start to spring on the horizon, here's a thread to discuss the ins and outs of that, how the latest forecasts are looking and so on. There's obviously a lot of chat in the model thread about this currently, and you can also find info about the SSW over in the strat thread. Nick has also blogged about the SSW here: Sudden Stratospheric Warming This Weekend, But What Is It & How Will It Affect Our Weather? And about the model mayhem currently being caused by it here: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Brings Weather Model Mayhem It's fair to say that confidence in the exact weather we're going to see from mid-next week onward is currently very low, but the Met Office are confident enough in the likelihood of cold weather that they've recently put out a press release: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-and-potential-impacts-on-uk Winter could be set to go out with a bang it seems, but it's not nailed on, yet.....
  8. A very cold spell is recorded by Gilbert White in his nature journal covering late February into March 1786. February that year started pretty average with some gales mid-month and it was not until the 21st that an East wind is mentioned. After 4 days of bitter conditions he notes that "ploughs are stopped by the frost" and "men cannot dig in the hop-gardens". A heavy snowfall arrives on the 27th and is described as about 7 inches deep - falling without drifting and lodged on the trees so it appears "very grotesque and picturesque". What happened next is the real surprise for our 'modern expectations'. The east wind gets up again and it becomes even colder so that the lying snow is now drifted "over hedges and gates". The first signs of any thawing are not seen until 10th March and even by 22nd March the lanes have "much snow still lying". Given this is Hampshire and not very far from the South coast it just goes to show how potent a late Winter spell could be back then.
  9. Milocation

    Evening shot!

  10. Well here we are at the beginning of November and there's the chance for the first snowfall of the season! The high ground of Scotland and Northern England look to bear the brunt of the snowfall, with the chance of some accumulations to lower levels (maybe staying above 100m) especially in Scotland, but also into the Midlands Tuesday night into Wednesday. Of course this is biased speculation, and also there's still plenty of time to go in terms of nailing snow forecasts, but as an avid coldie looking for more snow than he can handle this is looking pretty decent for my area tomorrow, considering it's still Autumn!! Whether this thread gets used or everyone stays chatting in their respective regional threads, I felt this very early taste of Winter deserved a proper mention. Netweather charts: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess= Met Office Warnings: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1478563200&regionName=st BBC Forecast Animation: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167 BRING ON THE SNOW!!!!
  11. Seen a lot of discussion about a torpedo in the model thread and frankly don't understand: What is it? What weather wild it bring? When is it? How can we be so sure this far out?
  12. I am enrolled at UNIS,Svalbard, studying Arctic glaciers till September. I am hoping to keep this blog updated with details of what I am up to and pictures. So far I am limited to Longyearbyen, having not received gun training, but next week will start with fieldwork. The weather has so far been sunny, and rather warm, reaching a high of 15c yesterday. The constant light is taking some getting use too! I'll be visiting a local glacier on Thursday, where I hope to update!
  13. Good Evening to you all. As the Warm/Hot Spell is ending as we speak or has ended depending on where you are the cool spell slowly taking over the UK with unsettled weather as it main force. Your opinions/thoughts on the spell/period. Please also be respectful of other users opinions as well...
  14. There may already be a thread for this so lock this if that's the case.... Met Office weather warnings have been issued for much of the country for heavy, frequent snow showers from tomorrow morning. Warning map: Here is the latest output from the models: 850hpa Temps: Precipitation Type: Very interesting spell of weather coming up very soon, lets all keep everyone informed of what's happening across the country.
  15. Since there may be a Cold Winter will there be any cold,snowfall this winter since cornwall doesn't get a load of snowfall.
  16. As a strong storm came through at the weekend it also introduced an arctic high with bitterly cold temperatures. This week we have not got above -25oC and night time has been around -32oC. Tonight the temperature has really taken a tumble and at 11:20pm tonight its currently -37oC. The record low here is -42oC set in Dec 2008. Will we break it? I guess we will know in 12 hours. What does it feel like? Imagine opening the freezer and that feeling of cold air for a second...that's every hour of every day outside. Cars need to be plugged in to prevent freezing, heating is going 24/7 and simple things like popping from the car to the shops takes an effort. Houses are warm, work is warm, cars, eventually, get warm but outside activity stops. Its an unforgiving lifestyle in the Canadian arctic environment. Light is at the end of the tunnel though....-5oC by next Monday? Shorts will be the order of the day then. Stay warm!
  17. Hello Guys and Good afternoon to you all There Will be a change next week.Making things nicely cold and Some snow (MAYBE) Lets begin the Discussion Right here and right now. Enjoy Ladies and Gentlemen....
  18. Looks like there will be SNOW ICE AND COLD! Hope they enjoy it. Edit:Might want to watch this too.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNPeCZE_dWU
  19. So we started the winter cold, then a few weeks of very mild, and about 10 days of snow, but not that cold because of persistent cold cover. We've got 6 weeks left to make or break the winter. A return to zonal rain that plagued us during the latter part of Dec and into Jan and it will be remembered less fondly by the NW members. But it has time yet to be memorable. From a Midlands perspective, it is already an above average winter for snow. But how do you think the rest of the winter will pan out? Here's my punt. Wind, rain and floods into early Feb, followed by a northerly and more snow. Then very mild for early March!
  20. Please carry on here. Please be polite and try and justify your posts with reasoned analysis and charts where appropriate. No bickering, trolling or anything off topic. We are seeing a lot of postings with musings from twitter - please only post these if they are relevent to the models and are taken in context. Please quote the source and give a link - otherwise your post may disappear as this is not the rumour model thread. Thank you.
  21. New thread for the Ireland regionals. Ramp away, discuss the ever changing Ireland weather and snow prospects. Be good, no arguing or I'll be chopping heads. Getting colder as the day is coming to an end here, fingers were getting numb under the gloves.
  22. Sprites

    FROSTY

    From the album: SPRITES PICS

    hoar frost taken 17-1-13 with phone.
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