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Showing results for tags 'australian hurricane season'.
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GFS has been toying with this one for the past few days. It's had it anything from around 80 kts down to a weak tropical low by the time it's in the Timor Sea/Joseph Bonaparte Gulf, and from late this week to early next week.IDD10610Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Northern TerritoryTropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of CarpentariaIssued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 21 April 2014 for the period until midnight CST Thursday 24 April 2014.Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:Nil.Potential Cyclones:A weak Tropical Low, 1008 hPa, is located in the northern Arafura Sea to the north of the region. The low is expected move slowly west before entering the Northern Region as it moves southwestwards into the Timor Sea later this week.Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:Tuesday Very LowWednesday Very LowThursday Low -
The TCWC Brisbane has picked up on the low near the SolomonsIDQ10810Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology QueenslandTropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral SeaIssued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 2 April 2014for the period until midnight EST Saturday 5 April 2014.Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:Nil.Potential Cyclones: A weak low is currently located close to the Solomon Islands near 10S 159.5E. The low is expected to remain slow moving over the northern Coral Sea during the outlook period, but may adopt a more westerly track over the weekend. Further slow devlopment is expected over the outlook period.Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:Thursday Very low Friday Very low Saturday Low TCWC Darwin has it moving across Cape York Peninsula and into the Arafura SeaIn the longer term, a tropical low in the northern Coral Sea is expected to move west and may cross Cape York Peninsula into the northern region mid next week.
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A new tropical low has formed in the Australian basin, just to the north of the Gulf of Carpentaria. The system currently cosists of flaring, though vigorous convection. This can be seen in the visible satellite loop below: For the time being, little to nog cyclonic turning can yet be observed, but this could change in the near term. Currently, most of the convection is being transported southward due to some northerly shear (as analyzed by CIMSS). The cyclone is forecast to develop into a category 2 cyclone (winds between 55 and 71 knots), and make landfall in the northern tip of Queensland. The graphical forecast of the cyclone by the BOM can be seen below: Sources: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65004.shtml http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%9314_Australian_region_cyclone_season#Tropical_Low_14U http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/98P/98P_floater.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/# -
Another low has developed in the Australian basin. The system is currently spinning to the northeast of Queensland. Currently, the system is lacking convection and it has a rather linear NW-SE oriented structure. This can be seen in the Rainbow satellite loop below: The Bureau of Meteorology expects the cyclone to become a category one cyclone (between 38 and 54 kt) and make landfall in Queensland, as can be seen below: Of note is that the GFS was forecasting the cyclone to become a hurricane (SSHS scale), but since then the model has been trending downward quite significantly. Sources: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96P/96P_floater.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%9314_Australian_region_cyclone_season#Tropical_Low_14U http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales
