Search the Community
Showing results for tags 'a forecasting nightmare'.
-
Many years ago whilst living in Bromley, N.W.Kent/S.E.London border, I did some research on some of S.E.England's most severe, wintry spells. I looked at those Winters from the 1960's to the 1990's. My local, main Library in Bromley, has a huge Reference Section. They keep copies of The Times, Sunday Times, Daily Telegraph, Sunday Telegraph and other newspapers, on microfiche. In those days, the "broadsheets", such as The Times and Daily Telegraph, featured detailed forecasts (supplied by the Met Office) and accurate reports of Weather events (**NB**, Nathan Rao and the Daily Mail). I decided to make copies of all the forecasts, leading up to and during some of the most severe, wintry spells between the 1960's and 1990's. Obviously, I had plenty of sheets of A4 copies of the 1962/63 Winter. I kept all of these copies in a folder and would wile away many hours reliving those wonderful, wintry synoptics from yesteryear. I vividly remember the lead up to the onset of the severe, wintry spell of Jan.1987. The onset of that spell gave the Met Office, a major forecasting "headache", at the time. My copies of The Times and Daily Telegraph during that time, confirm this to be the case. They changed the "extended outlook", twice in as many days. From becoming very cold with snow at times to less cold with rain at times and back again. Now a few archive charts and personal recollections, of that time: JAN.6th 1987 Perhaps on the cusp of something special? JAN.8th 1987 Or perhaps not? JAN 9th 1987 But then again? JAN 11th 1987 Come to Daddy, you beauty!! Think there were a few fairly light snow showers on Saturday 10th but the main action started on Sunday 11th. Does anybody remember John Kettley's famous Countryfile Forecast, on that Sunday? "The only bright thing about this forecast is my tie" (yellow)…………… JAN 12th 1987 Finally, a "Beast from the East", in it's full glory!! (The above chart, still my screensaver to this day.) Never mind about "Thames or Mid-Kent Streamers" (as some of you know, my pet subjects!!) In response to 850 temps of around minus 20c or so, interacting with relatively warm SST's in the southern N.Sea, an Ocean of snow engulfed the whole of the South East. On that Monday 12th January I was working for the C.W.S, in their accounts department, in Bromley. During that afternoon, due to the heavy snow, the whole of the transport system around the Borough of Bromley, was in lockdown. Consequently, we were sent home early. I spent the rest of the afternoon at my parents house, down the road from my place of work. By early evening the falling snow had eased off but not before depositing around 4 to 6 inches in places. Thought it prudent to start to make my way back home to Anerley, S.E.London (some of you will remember me as TomSE20). Arrived at Bromley South station by early evening, with a view to getting a train to Penge East, a short walk from where I lived in Anerley. The station staff informed me that no trains were running. Chaos ensued, east of Bromley, further into Kent. South-Eastern trains had attempted to run "ghost trains" (with deicing formula) but these had broken down in the intense cold and snow. Eventually come mid-evening, I caught an all stations to London Victoria train and arrived back home to my wife and children, very cold and tired. That spell produced the heaviest snow I'd seen, in the Bromley area (around 9 inches in places, by the end of that spell and some of the coldest temperatures, whilst living in the Bromley area.) Would like to hear other members recollections of that incredible spell of weather!! Do you also remember the chopping and changing of the extended outlook, from the Met Office?? As we know, these "Beast from the East" synoptics seem to cause forecast models all manner of problems. Perhaps because it "rails against", the Climatological norm? As we know, some 10 months later, the Met Office faced huge criticism over the Michael Fish, "Hurricane" that wasn't saga. If memory serves, I think it prompted a major overhaul of their computer systems. I wonder if January 1987 was on the "Chief's" worry list, as well. Regards, Tom.