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Torpedo fired on 6z GFS - watch this run .

Well it seems that with most winter seasons, there is a "watchword" or "phrase" for that winter. OPI, torpedo, etc It seems this winter, it is "Iberian high or heights"

I seem to remember something like this happening years ago with an Azores low and I'm sure it coincided with Stuart Rampling's famous 'torpedo' post.

Torpedo has been launched

I can't think of much that can theoretically override a high amplitude MJO signal in all honesty - a strong, coupled vortex working top down would see it off....that's not what we have at the moment. Vortex is weakening. Phases 2 - 5 are poor for us, so if the MJO progresses as fast as ECM has it progressing today towards phase 2 then our goose is cooked. I am awaiting today's CPC assessment on the MJO before making any rash calls, but I have to admit that the white towel is sat on my lap. Even with a spike in momentum which I do think we will get shortly, a COD phase of 7/8/1 as poor as ECM is modelling it - and BOM has pretty much come into line on amplitude also - would spell the end of any hope of the kick we need to get a block at higher latitude. This would leave us with a mid lat context at best, preventing any flux from stabbing towards the arctic to disrupt things there and also reducing the chances of anything like a significant wave break to provide that block. Sadly I have spent the last few years fighting against my instincts, namely that the only way for the UK to see sustained and bitter cold in a warming world is for us to get a significant SSW, and probably a split SSW for maximum impacts. Over the last few years I have said this many times but decided to go into this year with a renewed sense of what the trop on its own could offer us. I remember swapping some messages with GP in the aftermath of the Dec 2012 fiasco and the failed torpedo: he was certainly beginning to reflect on the fact that the modern global setup was mitigating against patterns that were once more predictable in terms of response. The theory of pattern creation is increasingly being challenged by the observed reality. Any evidence for my instincts? The one that sticks is the increasing number of times that our coldest patterns are dropping into March, when impacts of a late winter strat warming are at their greatest. Increasingly, prior to March, how often are we seeing vortex-inspired westerly dominance with a northerly shunted Hadley Cell dominate Jan and Feb? Pretty much every year. We get the occasional coldish spell at the start of the season - indeed twice in 2 years now we have fallen lucky there....but once the core of "winter" arrives the pattern defaults to flat. If the CPC do not throw us a bone later then, for me, the trop impacts of the current wave become a fail, and that will mean the end of the first half of winter. We wont see a high lat block on the back of phase 2-5 progression. All eyes will literally turn to the stratosphere and the hope that we can get some joy from a proper warming. Chances there are still good. And we may also be lucky enough to be able to time the effects of this (2-4 week lag) with the next pacific wave....and that means February or late Jan at the absolute earliest. Perhaps the seasonal models were sniffing exactly this kind of potential when they were looking at a colder Feb - though, to be honest, my mind boggles as to how seasonal NWP runs in terms of a mathematical model. If we cant get NWP accurate at 7-10 days then how on earth does a seasonal model do it at lead times of 8-12 weeks....and surely if month 1 busts then all subsequent months bust!!! Anyway, sobering times. I am hoping my 3cm of snow at the start of the month that lasted half a day is not the last I see this season....but we may well be on the cusp of having to look way into the future at lagged impacts of a SSW. On the positive side, let no one forget the awesomeness that was Feb/Mar 2018. My favourite weather in the UK probably ever. That is what a SSW can do. Roll on the next example. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4979253

I can't think of much that can theoretically override a high amplitude MJO signal in all honesty - a strong, coupled vortex working top down would see it off....that's not what we have at the moment. Vortex is weakening. Phases 2 - 5 are poor for us, so if the MJO progresses as fast as ECM has it progressing today towards phase 2 then our goose is cooked. I am awaiting today's CPC assessment on the MJO before making any rash calls, but I have to admit that the white towel is sat on my lap. Even with a spike in momentum which I do think we will get shortly, a COD phase of 7/8/1 as poor as ECM is modelling it - and BOM has pretty much come into line on amplitude also - would spell the end of any hope of the kick we need to get a block at higher latitude. This would leave us with a mid lat context at best, preventing any flux from stabbing towards the arctic to disrupt things there and also reducing the chances of anything like a significant wave break to provide that block. Sadly I have spent the last few years fighting against my instincts, namely that the only way for the UK to see sustained and bitter cold in a warming world is for us to get a significant SSW, and probably a split SSW for maximum impacts. Over the last few years I have said this many times but decided to go into this year with a renewed sense of what the trop on its own could offer us. I remember swapping some messages with GP in the aftermath of the Dec 2012 fiasco and the failed torpedo: he was certainly beginning to reflect on the fact that the modern global setup was mitigating against patterns that were once more predictable in terms of response. The theory of pattern creation is increasingly being challenged by the observed reality. Any evidence for my instincts? The one that sticks is the increasing number of times that our coldest patterns are dropping into March, when impacts of a late winter strat warming are at their greatest. Increasingly, prior to March, how often are we seeing vortex-inspired westerly dominance with a northerly shunted Hadley Cell dominate Jan and Feb? Pretty much every year. We get the occasional coldish spell at the start of the season - indeed twice in 2 years now we have fallen lucky there....but once the core of "winter" arrives the pattern defaults to flat. If the CPC do not throw us a bone later then, for me, the trop impacts of the current wave become a fail, and that will mean the end of the first half of winter. We wont see a high lat block on the back of phase 2-5 progression. All eyes will literally turn to the stratosphere and the hope that we can get some joy from a proper warming. Chances there are still good. And we may also be lucky enough to be able to time the effects of this (2-4 week lag) with the next pacific wave....and that means February or late Jan at the absolute earliest. Perhaps the seasonal models were sniffing exactly this kind of potential when they were looking at a colder Feb - though, to be honest, my mind boggles as to how seasonal NWP runs in terms of a mathematical model. If we cant get NWP accurate at 7-10 days then how on earth does a seasonal model do it at lead times of 8-12 weeks....and surely if month 1 busts then all subsequent months bust!!! Anyway, sobering times. I am hoping my 3cm of snow at the start of the month that lasted half a day is not the last I see this season....but we may well be on the cusp of having to look way into the future at lagged impacts of a SSW. On the positive side, let no one forget the awesomeness that was Feb/Mar 2018. My favourite weather in the UK probably ever. That is what a SSW can do. Roll on the next example.

I'm still waiting for that torpedo.....

Agree. I know he got the "torpedo" moment wrong, but no one is perfect at forecasting and never will be but more often than not he was on the money.

Still waiting for that torpedo..

HNY everyone - festive season pretty much over...time to return to "normal" (whatever that is...) It has been a grim 2 weeks for cold hunters. I have checked into a few charts and data sources over the Xmas period and frankly if it could go wrong - it has gone wrong. Pacific forcing arrived as expected and it has prevented the slide towards a Nina dominated atmosphere. AAM has pushed back up into positive territory and the GWO orbit started to rise once again, avoiding a slide into flat, Nina territory. We have even ended up in the fabled ground of MJO phase 7 as many suspected might happen despite the usual crappy MJO model forecasts. This was probably about as big a jump back up of AAM in a positive pacific context as we could expect. Looks pretty good! We are even looking at a scenario which sees the North Pacific High replaced by some quite long last low pressure....a good precursor for strat forcing But just take a look - as though we need to - at pressure over Europe. I posted JMA monthly charts that saw this draining away. EC charts showed it draining away. And here we are with the Euro High firmly embedded. It has forced the jet stream further north so that only the Highlands are now seeing what - at one stage - some of us thought much of the UK could see during this current period. Go to the outer reaches of useful EPS modelling and not much change. Euro High in charge. It is indeed grim. CC modelling of global patterns over the next 80 years or so sees the growth of the Euro High as a core feature. The fact that we are seeing it so much already, as early as 2022/23, is depressing. Germany breaking temperature records....we had our 40 degree summer just gone. Both courtesy of this growing anomaly. As the world warms the regional implications of this Euro feature are going to become quite profound I suspect. Where does this leave UK winter? Searching for a SSW. I don't see any way out of a westerly pattern now without a SSW. Really substantial amplification might possibly do it but remembering the failure of the GP +4SD "torpedo" years ago I am not sure modern climate patterns produce the same kind of response as was the case 30-40 years ago, at least in Europe where we have a semi permanent high anomaly bedded in to our south. A proper SSW - like 2018 - would do it. In such circumstances downwelling impacts of vortex collapse overcome tropospheric forcing and these scenarios are the ones that really significant winter cold will rely on going forward. To have any chance of this in our current winter we could do with seeing high pressure reemerge over Scandy or the Urals as we had in November to pair up with low pressure over the Aleutians which is modelled. As more than one poster noted a month ago - it would have been much better for our winter overall if the Scandy High in early December hadn't retrogressed so swiftly to Greenland. Much better for stratospheric forcing. Right now only half of this pairing is in place - the Aleutian Low. It is forecast to produce quite a significant wave 1 stretch of the vortex and there is a chance going forward of a displacement warming....but a wave 2 split would be much better for us. Note the current 3D modelling of the vortex in 10 days' time - stretch is quite clear and visible. So - forget the first half of January. I would almost suggest everyone take a week away from the models, maybe even 10 days, and come back and see if any change is in the offing. Pray that the Euro High ridges towards the Urals in the meantime. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98196-model-output-discussion-new-year-and-beyond/?do=findComment&comment=4781681

HNY everyone - festive season pretty much over...time to return to "normal" (whatever that is...) It has been a grim 2 weeks for cold hunters. I have checked into a few charts and data sources over the Xmas period and frankly if it could go wrong - it has gone wrong. Pacific forcing arrived as expected and it has prevented the slide towards a Nina dominated atmosphere. AAM has pushed back up into positive territory and the GWO orbit started to rise once again, avoiding a slide into flat, Nina territory. We have even ended up in the fabled ground of MJO phase 7 as many suspected might happen despite the usual crappy MJO model forecasts. This was probably about as big a jump back up of AAM in a positive pacific context as we could expect. Looks pretty good! We are even looking at a scenario which sees the North Pacific High replaced by some quite long last low pressure....a good precursor for strat forcing But just take a look - as though we need to - at pressure over Europe. I posted JMA monthly charts that saw this draining away. EC charts showed it draining away. And here we are with the Euro High firmly embedded. It has forced the jet stream further north so that only the Highlands are now seeing what - at one stage - some of us thought much of the UK could see during this current period. Go to the outer reaches of useful EPS modelling and not much change. Euro High in charge. It is indeed grim. CC modelling of global patterns over the next 80 years or so sees the growth of the Euro High as a core feature. The fact that we are seeing it so much already, as early as 2022/23, is depressing. Germany breaking temperature records....we had our 40 degree summer just gone. Both courtesy of this growing anomaly. As the world warms the regional implications of this Euro feature are going to become quite profound I suspect. Where does this leave UK winter? Searching for a SSW. I don't see any way out of a westerly pattern now without a SSW. Really substantial amplification might possibly do it but remembering the failure of the GP +4SD "torpedo" years ago I am not sure modern climate patterns produce the same kind of response as was the case 30-40 years ago, at least in Europe where we have a semi permanent high anomaly bedded in to our south. A proper SSW - like 2018 - would do it. In such circumstances downwelling impacts of vortex collapse overcome tropospheric forcing and these scenarios are the ones that really significant winter cold will rely on going forward. To have any chance of this in our current winter we could do with seeing high pressure reemerge over Scandy or the Urals as we had in November to pair up with low pressure over the Aleutians which is modelled. As more than one poster noted a month ago - it would have been much better for our winter overall if the Scandy High in early December hadn't retrogressed so swiftly to Greenland. Much better for stratospheric forcing. Right now only half of this pairing is in place - the Aleutian Low. It is forecast to produce quite a significant wave 1 stretch of the vortex and there is a chance going forward of a displacement warming....but a wave 2 split would be much better for us. Note the current 3D modelling of the vortex in 10 days' time - stretch is quite clear and visible. So - forget the first half of January. I would almost suggest everyone take a week away from the models, maybe even 10 days, and come back and see if any change is in the offing. Pray that the Euro High ridges towards the Urals in the meantime.

Seen a lot of discussion about a torpedo in the model thread and frankly don't understand: What is it? What weather wild it bring? When is it? How can we be so sure this far out?

@Puffy MacCloudfabulous news, hope you get home soon. We're up in Orkney, in a house on the southern tip of East Ronaldsay, our garden ends in the sea and OMG it is windy. Endless, relentless wind but golly I love Orkney. Ring of Brodgar was amazing, Scarra Brae even more so. Been to the Tomb of the Otters and Hoxa Head today (my dad trained there in the war, he was a signalman on the Motor Torpedo Boats). Sadly my mum has been taken into hospital so having a surreal trip tbh loving the surroundings, the sea, the stones but worried sick about my mum and desperate to see her (Dr's optimistic about a good recovery) Ferry back on Monday, drive to Falkirk, quick sleep then 560 miles down to Cornwall through the heat wave (might drive overnight instead). A few pics and a video from the garden of our house, the rough water is a tidal race called The Liddel Eddy. MOV_0551.mp4

It seems this winter's hobby-horse is "warm September/mild winter" Other past winter hobby-horses: who remembers the infamous "torpedo" of 2015-16? Who talks about the OPI these days? Remember that one? That was the hobby horse in the run up to the winter of 2014-15.

Wasn’t it a torpedo? But yes, these are unusual Synoptics for the time of year. Nothing is decided after a stonking or poor model suite. Normally the best we could hope for at this time of year is one-shot outside-chance 2 day toppler affair, so make the most of it folks, whatever the outcome, it may be another 11 years before we have our next cold and snow Christmas chase …

The "torpedo" was forecast to strike about the last third of January and he hasn't made a post since at least a week before that predicted timeframe So how can anyone say "I got it wrong"? You say it after the predicted timeframe. And it's honourable thing to do in my books putting your hands up and saying I got this wrong. You could even say that the fact he made no further posts in the run up to the "torpedo" might suggest that he was beginning to see this was going pear-shaped, if we are looking at this cynically. And that is the issue for me. He has not posted much since taking up his new job or position, understandable. But he came on here and trumpeted this "torpedo". So he must have thought it significant enough to alert people on here about it. However it left some members scratching their heads exactly what this "torpedo" was? And it has left even more scratching their heads "what happened?" No explanation to what went wrong, maybe he should have made a post to why it went wrong.

We also have a possible issue where the first warming is not enough to torpedo the sPV, so it recovers, maybe during the loss of the Ural block and the general flattening of the NH profile (post-d6)? If we do not get a good amount of HLB'ing from the SWWE then the second warming may not be enough to stop the sPV recovering fully? More questions than answers at the moment! d8 as you were on the gfs 06z:

Yes until the Met Office are more consistent about a proper cold spell I'm not going to be taken in by any long range stratospheric developments in other threads by the usual suspects. The Met office are our national weather service so I take them a bit more seriously than people like nick Sussex, Tamara, Bluearmy, Steve Murr or Chionomanic etc. No disrespect to them but whilst these people are evidently knowledgeable they only see what they have access to. Who can forget GP's very bullish "Torpedo" in 2013-2014 but in the end it did not happen & was a very poor Winter. The Met have access to models that people in here don't. And for the most part those professional models are more accurate, not infallible mind you, what is at the end of the day? but they are better than what we get to see on meteociel or wetterzentrale. Been plenty of times we've been led down the garden path by these standard models, even very close to an event only for the Met to remain resolute nothing was going to happen and they were correct. Obviously they had their own models that outperformed what we see.

@Day 10 will take a look just a huge concern for me when the Meto are not on board they make mistakes just like anyone I'm still waiting for the Torpedo LOL thats not a dig at Chino intriguing too watch this unfold,but like you there are only so many kicks to the plums you can take and after the let downs and the chases of years gone by you will understand my concerns,let's see what happens in the next seven days. C.S

I wonder what initials or word will it be for winter 2020-21? We've had IOD last winter, OPI, torpedo etc in past winters. I rarely look at the model discussion thread these days and unfortunately it is the worst place to be when a potential cold spell starts to wobble or go belly up in the models.

So he mentioned the torpedo hitting its target three weeks from the third of January which takes us to the 24th. I'm therefore assuming that the torpedo hitting its target on that date does not mean cold and snow arriving on that date. So, the torpedo is a precursor to what and when? I think GP showed analogues for February with a Scandi trough and Greenland High so we are still a good bit away from that.

The origin of the torpedo can be seen in this post https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84756-model-output-discussions-pm-311215/?page=20#comment-3313293 which relates the possibility and impact of northward propagating atmospheric angular momentum anomalies. However a search for the term 'torpedo' shows that it then took on a life of it's own such that it was responsible for just about any potential cold spell on the horizon, quite amusing - https://forum.netweather.tv/search/?&q=torpedo&page=1

Nothing what was suggested for Jan has occured as the focus was from Eastern blocking - maybe the torpedo is still circulating. The only winter forecasts that have been amy good are the seasonal ones & what Tamara put out in November - December. Anyway a nasty storm developing at day 5 with the potential for heavy rain & storm force winds with the added bonus of blizzards for some >150M

I have grown more and more cynical over time with all these teleconnections etc. Who talked about stratospheric warming etc before 2008? I don't recall anyone talking about it but it really kicked off with that event in January 2009 although remember talk about it in early 2008. The Met Office certainly never did to the general public pre 2009. Now its talked about every winter and cold weather lovers hang onto it. I was hooked by it back in 2009 and was told by more knowledgeabe persons that it could bring a freezing February, that was the expectations. The reality was it did bring a wintry first half to February but the second half was exceptionally mild. For such an event, the blocking wasn't spectacular. We had the OPI back in winter 2014-15 but that didn't deliver the great winter, then we had the torpedo fiasco the following winter which to this day I still don't know that was suppose to be about. Now the low solar activity is being touted as the deliverer. Well it didn't deliver any great winters during that very low solar minimum in the first half of the 1910s. Infact, going off the last 100 years, suggest that those who want that spectacular winter that you have a better chance near a solar maximum. So maybe 2023-24 or 2024-25 will be the next 1978-79, 1939-40 etc.

I'm still waiting for the "torpedo" he alluded to a few years ago which never arrived. He's a good forecaster but obviously not infallible. I don't think anyone can, with great accuracy, forecast weeks in advance. Of course if one was to say it's going to be a mild Winter you won't go far wrong. It's our default climate. A bit like saying it's going to be cold in Moscow. You won't usually be wrong.