The Enforcer

As I said previously two threads ago, teleconnections take you so far up the garden path, but then a leap of faith is required to translate favourable background signals into snow for the UK. In the SW & Southern Central England region, the kind of leap often required would be the equivalent of jumping the River Thames.

Surface temperature impact looks OK on Icon 06z as far as it goes:

GEFS18z back down to 28% stinkers (excluding the operational and control), same as 00z, better than 06z and 12z.

It's a myth. My location is north of there and it usually rains in borderline situations.

1. GEM - 41% (excluding the operational & control) - same as 00z. 2. GEFS - 34% (including the operational & control) - a little better than 06z, but worse than 00z. 3. ECMWF - 25% (excluding the operational & control) - same as 00z.

Is there a precipitation chart for Wednesday? The next timeframe I have seen posted is for Thursday.

From the 06z suites GEFS moved up to 38% stinkers (again including the operational & control). I will post my subjective 12z ensemble suite stinker analysis once the ECMWF ensembles are out.

Having looked at the 00z ensembles suites, I subjectively rank the stinker run %s as follows: 1. GEM - 41% (includes the operational & control) 2. GFS - 28% (includes the operational & control) 3. ECMWF - 25% Certainly room for improvement.

Taking the GEFS12z and GEFS18z on face value, the percentage of ending up with what I would describe as being a 'stinker' run (significantly above the mean by the middle of the run without sustained recovery thereafter e.g. 12z control & 18z P20) remains about the same for both suites - 22%.

Almost. Enter GEFSP20: It follows the macro-pattern and nearly has an acceptable solution for the micro-pattern, but it's still a stinker due to the ensuing extreme North-South temperature profile and perceived split in fortunes and all the acrimony that comes with it. If Sunday's trends could continue into the next week, this type of outcome could be put to bed.

Come in GEFS12z P01, your time is up: Could GEFS18z finally be a set devoid of 'stinkers'?

GFS 12z Operational is definitely not a 'stinker'.

That's done the trick thanks. I'm glad I wasn't going mad. Yes, there's all the cloud.

I have become accustomed to 'rain not showing on radar', now I have 'cloud not showing on satelite'. Even the post upload error message is from "CloudFront":

From my perspective, there has been little change. The 'stinker' runs have always been there and this is no different for GEFS06z with P29: Unlike stinkers in recent preceding outputs, which have been pushing a pattern of bringing in mild air from the SW LP before the maritime polar air arrives, this one develops and blows up an LP in the flow around Iceland and then that absorbs the SW LP, which it looks like might otherwise have disrupted. The other thing about this stinker is it is more isolated and arguably less stinky than its predecessors.

Goodness no, especially having endured 4 weeks of incessant mild weather, culminating in 50% of January's rain total in 4 days and the consequential flooding that ensued. I'm naturally averse to anything in the output that could potentially provide more of the same under the guise of a 'cold spell'. These types of run have been lingering like a bad smell and I would like to see them go away. As thepost I was responding to eluded to, there was more than one "lemon". The charts that yourself and Lorenzo posted would be perfectly fine.

GEFS12z P14 is a nightmare, which I sincerely hope will not come to fruition:

Rather than having dozens of runs at low resolution, would it not be better to have fewer runs, but all at high resolution?

GEFS06z P16 is annoying in that it follows the overall pattern, but at the microscale, it never gets cold enough:

Typical. The Ock Valley is the wettest place than anywhere else in the whole of southern and central England just at the point where there is a flood warning:

GEFS18z P01 & P14 still pushing a SW attack option leading to more rain and flooding, which I don't like very much:

Or in the UK version: crushed by freezing rain.

One things for sure, the house won't suffer from a snow-induced catastrophe.

Somehow I doubt it. Dry forecast changed to outside chance of rain and sure enough it's raining again:

GEFS12z P14 & P21 highlighting the danger of a SW attack before polar air becomes entrenched: