nsrobins
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Posts posted by nsrobins
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I would be very surprised if D4-6 didn't appear on SPC this morning given the favourable synoptics.Saturday is as I said a Northern show and out of reach. However, Sunday and Monday look potentially decent for the CO/KS region as the lee trough pushes very slowly east, with the DL dragging along. Indeed from GFS bulk shear and wind vectors you can guess SRH values in far W KS on Sunday eve may be significant.
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Great to see the excitement, and for those of you who are first-timers, it will be everything you dreamt it will be!
Hope to be able to continue to support the team from my armchair here in rural Hampshire.
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No clear signal to allow specific areas to be identified for Sun and Mon as yet.
Saturday looks like a Northern Plains day now with shear maximised across NE WY which may be a trip to far perhaps?
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As Black adder once said, there's a phrase one could use and it rhymes with 'clucking bell'.
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Thanks Neil, T3's first chase day is on Monday so may be an opportunity for the tail end of t2 as well
Of course - a bonus end of tour and a bonus start to T3!
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Thanks Stu - nice images.Are you out until the weekend - looks promising.
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Well the start of Tour 3 could be explosive or I'm no judge of the GFS.A classic pattern develops late this week and through the weekend with what looks like the richest moisture return into the central plains this year ahead of an upper low and attendant DL moving off the high terrain. There's probably no D5-6 on SPC yet because the potential targets are too numerous!Saturday into Sunday could be big for W KS up into SW NE. Should monitor the models once into NAM range.
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If the cell S of Midland isn't producing it should be. Decent hook signature and tight couplet now.
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Yep SW cell about to go Tor warned - couplet tightening.
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Meso tightening on the Big Spring Cell and next cell to the SW looking better organised too. Conditions becoming more favourable IMO in next hour for a tornado or two.
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Yes think it is - meandering towards Big Spring, Having a problem getting organised though and fairly high-based but has been producing wall clouds on and off for half an hour.
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Bit of a punt this one but looking at latest obs and ppn distribution as of 18Z we might have a chance of isolated supercell development in the Snyder, TX area by 21Z this evening.It's very dependant on OFBs but I'm thinking a juxtaposition of said outflow confluence from the current southern area of cells and the one in the southern panhandle may enhance hodos enough to rotate developing storms in the I20 region and above area.
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Left the motel heading towards the area nnear the outdoor centre that will hep each othrrt.
Hello Tom - could you suggest a translator to use to decipher that?
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Well we have cool dome modification now - that's a new one to me.Note to myself before going out next season: Find out about cool dome modification!
Short-term tornado risk enhanced - cell near Odessa looks likely.
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0181.html
Tornado Watch issued for areas previously identified. One assumes the team is heading SW but the live stream and position tracker is not working for me.
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That's fascinating Paul. I'd be very interested in seeing the video as will many others I expect - decent footage of these events is very rare.
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The video will be telling as the movement of these little known phenomena has been reported as mainly horizontal but often non-uniform in both velocity and vector.Many theories as to their cause and structure.
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I don't disagree with the target that's slightly further South. Infact I often give more weight to DL and any bulge over wind vectors in these TX/NM set-ups so going on 09Z RAP I might shift down to Midland/Odessa TX. I didn't know the team was in Carlsbad but it's not a bad place to start the morning.
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I think SPC might be underdoing tor chances a tad this evening with the 2% cover. True no inhibition to speak of so ppn might be a bit messy but any discrete cells that maintain their form until the LLJ picks-up might well produce. There is a sharp directional shift at around 800mb from 21Z.The DL stays in NM so I'd be getting down the I27 towards Brownfield TX or even Hobbs, NM today.
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Goodland KS nearer the better upper flow, further west into CO for initiation and low-;level shear generated by the Denver Low.A trip too far maybe but in virtual land I'd be looking at Limon, CO or even areas northeast of Denver Metro for this one.
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Good luck tour 2!
I had posted some musings on the T2 outlook thread but will have another look later.
Extreme W CO for me this evening.
Note: could be decent set-up for the famous DCZ (Denver convergence zone)
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Models continue the scenario for upslope activity along the front range in W CO Weds through Thurs this week.Actually moisture return is impressive and with an easterly at the surface and a WSW aloft, deep directional shear will provide ample opportunity for rotating supercells meandering down the slope.Weds evening could be a Burlington I70 corridor special.
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Oh that's not good, that suggest's the end of season stuff for tour 4 will mean touring in Canadian Praries
Not necessarily, but the season has been unusual it has to be said - and the incredible distance already covered by Tour 1 is testimony to that.It is very hard to predict what the rest of May and June has in store, but I wouldn't put it past Mother Nature to deliver a multi-day outbreak at some point in classic chase territory.The big question is - when?
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The slow moving pattern this week does allow for moisture return into the central and high plains, with the emphasis on upslope activity. The primary areas of interest are likely to be E CO and NW KS into W NE in my opinion. A sort of late season feel mid-season if you get my drift.
Storm Chase Tour 3 - Advanced thoughts
in Storm Chase USA
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Not so confident of tornado risk but storms should develop as far south as E KS and the OK Panhandle Sunday evening (dependant on inhibition) so maybe not so far to catch something Sunday.