nsrobins

Onwards and upwards from last night's blow-out and a slight risk in above areas. At 21Z a trough is located from OK Panhandle ENE across S KS. A DL is set-up N-S from E CO to NM.The issue I have is inhibition, although RAP erodes this enough in far N OK and S KS to allow a cell or two to form maybe far SE KS or W OK in the upslope where surface winds are ESE.Shear should be sufficient for supercells and in the de-cluttered air some scenic cells may form. Need to get below the area of inhibition so Woodward, OK

A closer inspection reveals how near and yet so far last night's event was. It looks like an OFB in the form of a pseudo cold front developed just to the north of the synoptic warm front. Rather elevated cells developing on the first boundary just failed to dip into the richer moisture and shear associated with the southern WF and remained the dominant structure as they moved along the boundary ESE.Nothing of note managed to take hold in the better environment along the I80. Many chasers, including several DOWs and all four Dominator crews more or less busted out.

Dusk falls on the high plains and that's me done. I have no idea what went 'wrong' this evening - it seems the complex interaction of WF and various boundaries prevented cells from riding the better shear and thus far the train of cells have been a clutter of shelf clouds and occasional rotation.I was pretty confident of several large tornados by now - even the modelled derecho event seems to have dematerialised.Back to the drawing board for Weds night LOL.

The new cell south of Alliance in W NE may save the day if it stays along the boundary as it moves ESE.Already has a strong couplet on it but if it survives it will be a couple of hours before it reaches the team's location.

What a mess. A range of modes present - the cell near Silver Creek has a shelf, SLWs, gustnados and strong rotation all in one it seems!

Tower and first radar return about 10 miles SSW Broken Bow.

Hold fire - elevated cells N NE forecast and will probably not produce but the OFB from this region - clearly seen on visible - is likely to initiate storms between Lincoln and Broken Bow in next hour.

There you go - upgrade to HIGH risk E NE into IO for the bow/derecho.Tornado chances still the same in area previously highlighted.

Sticking my neck out a bit here but with the surface WF hanging back a bit in S NE now, subtle OFBs from the earlier complex could well come into play regards interaction with the WF.Just had a check on hodos for my target area and they're off the scale to be honest - huge clockwise deeply looped profiles that scream intense and rapid rotation right up through the cell.Good luck guys - and hold tight.

The fickle synoptics continue to tease.The surface boundary/WF currently lies along the I80 in S C NE, about 100 miles further south than modelled. The earlier clutter is clearing away eastwards leaving a significantly unstable environment in it's wake with 70F+ dps. I am now looking to shuffle a bit south of St Paul down towards Grand Island/Kearney - expecting initiation around 18Z with quickly dissolving cap.A big day - stay safe. PWO issued: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html

I am already thinking that a slight more North is required, still on the 281 but towards Wheeler County, NE.For a few hours conditions look favourable for a few discrete supercells with LCLs indicating low-base mesocyclones. Note metro areas of Souix City and Souix Falls under the gun this evening. Additional: 08Z RAP plonks insane deep-layer EHI of 11+ over N C Nebraska at 22Z. Presumably just on or south of the WF boundary. Phew! Should clutter from current complex across NW NE clear by 16Z I'm guessing an upgrade to HIGH may be in order.

A number of issues with this set-up, some that scream 'severe-end event' and others that suggest an early line-out.As Paul says the clever money is on the WF and latest runs suggest it to lie further North at 20Z than previously modelled. Storm motion level winds though will keep any cell parallel to it so a rooted cell moving due east along the front will almost certainly develop strong rotation given the scary helicity.This is the hodo from the 05Z RAP for just north of Grand Junction, NE: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/RAP_255_2014060305_F17_41.5000N_98.5000W_HODO.png A long vertical start then looping a long way right and then back - very significant directional AND speed shear and the shape you're looking for for tornado potential. The caveat for me is the timing and clearing of early convection and the possibility that retreating junk interferes with the inflow region. A lot can change and targeting should be based on position of WF on obs although I wouldn't stray too far east and north and keep the DL play in mind should junk prevail further east.St Paul, NE and I'll be there by 1pm local.

RAP fires a cell or two on the I35 south of Wellington KS post 22Z. May be worth meandering east as I see the boundary working soon. Tomorrow looks even more significant on the 12Z NAM - SRH values topped out 10+ !

Glad you had some fun. No doubt you are now in S KS heading North.Tues night looks messy and potentially dangerous.

More data available now on the risk for Tues night (3rd June). Some parameters for S NE show a potential severe-end tornado risk along the synoptic warm front Tues evening as a 6o+kn 500mb jet over rides the region. One to watch and no doubt will be discussed nearer the time.

Not sure where the team are - tracker still stuck. Cells in W KS rather high-based but structure should develop.The line/cells in N KS in richer shear and moisture but not looking too organised at present.

Paul if you can get into the OK Panhandle around Laverne you might be ok from 22Z as RAP generates a cell or two here.My virtual target is still N C KS though and I might move North of Hays depending on subtle boundaries - there look to be a few according to latest obs.

I'm going to start the action today as I've had an eye on this potential for a few days now and we could have the first real classic Kansas day of the season.Tour 3 members wake to a steamy start in N TX with T2m rising to the low-30s by early afternoon and dps are elevated.The route is North towards the surface trough - DL - WF intersection today with tor risk maximised in NW C KS. Storms initiating around 21Z develop quickly and roll perpendicular off the DL into an environment with increasingly 'sufficient' shear for rotation. Note the use of the term as the best soundings aren't classic tornado producers any any means but there is ample directional shear right on the WF/DL triple to make up for initial low speed shear. Adjust using subsequent RAP updates and obs but I'd be looking to be in Hays, KS by 3pm if that is possible. Note storms also likely further down the DL into the OK Panhandle area after 22Z which may be a more reachable target. PS: Keeping an eye on Tues 3rd June - models holding firm on a potential big day in N KS PPS: The GPS location feature is stuck and has had you south of Dalhart for a week now. Is it just me?

Agree with Paul here and I'd be looking closely at next Weds and Thurs which have the ingredients for an OK Dryline classic at the moment.

Not so confident of tornado risk but storms should develop as far south as E KS and the OK Panhandle Sunday evening (dependant on inhibition) so maybe not so far to catch something Sunday.

I would be very surprised if D4-6 didn't appear on SPC this morning given the favourable synoptics.Saturday is as I said a Northern show and out of reach. However, Sunday and Monday look potentially decent for the CO/KS region as the lee trough pushes very slowly east, with the DL dragging along. Indeed from GFS bulk shear and wind vectors you can guess SRH values in far W KS on Sunday eve may be significant.

Great to see the excitement, and for those of you who are first-timers, it will be everything you dreamt it will be! Hope to be able to continue to support the team from my armchair here in rural Hampshire.

No clear signal to allow specific areas to be identified for Sun and Mon as yet. Saturday looks like a Northern Plains day now with shear maximised across NE WY which may be a trip to far perhaps?

As Black adder once said, there's a phrase one could use and it rhymes with 'clucking bell'.

Of course - a bonus end of tour and a bonus start to T3!